Daily wrap-up — 2026-08-23

Predictions are P(touch) on ±0.5 ATR, frozen before the session opens. This is a calibration check, not a directional "win" or "loss".

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

predictions

4 evaluated · 0 pending

mean predicted

28.7%

average P(touch) across evaluated predictions

realized share

75.0%

share of evaluated predictions that touched

calibration gap

+46.29 pp

realized share minus mean predicted

Brier score

0.407

mean squared error of predicted vs. outcome — lower is better, 0 is perfect

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Bitcoin	+0.50 ATR	29.8%	not touched
Bitcoin	-0.50 ATR	27.6%	touched
Ethereum	+0.50 ATR	29.8%	touched
Ethereum	-0.50 ATR	27.6%	touched