日次確率マップ

SNAPSHOT 15:25 ETNEW YORK セッション

追跡中の各市場のタッチ確率を15分ごとに更新。セルにホバーすると詳細、行をクリックするとドロワーを開く。

方向性の call ではなく、確率マップ。意味 →

追跡数

31 / 32

今日解決した水準

まだライブ

169

最終更新

SNAPSHOT 15:15 ET

Futures Stocks FX Crypto

各追跡 futures 市場について、セッション基準点から ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR の P(touch)。

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET session open — the feed's available session-range window may not start at exactly that instant, see methodology.

市場	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
E-mini S&P 500直近 7883.00	↑64.7% ↓61.9% ✓65% 62% +2.8pp	↑26.3% ↓25.4% ✓26% 25% +0.9pp	↑5.5% ↓6.4% ✓6% 6% -0.8pp	↑1.5% ↓1.8% ✓1% 2% -0.3pp	↑0.4% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.0pp
E-mini Nasdaq 100直近 31533.25	↑64.7% ↓61.9% ✓65% ✓62% +2.8pp	↑26.3% ↓25.4% ✓26% 25% +0.9pp	↑5.5% ↓6.4% ✓6% 6% -0.8pp	↑1.5% ↓1.8% 1% 2% -0.3pp	↑0.4% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.0pp
E-mini Dow直近 51849.00	↑64.7% ↓61.9% ✓65% 62% +2.8pp	↑26.3% ↓25.4% ✓26% 25% +0.9pp	↑5.5% ↓6.4% ✓6% 6% -0.8pp	↑1.5% ↓1.8% 1% 2% -0.3pp	↑0.4% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.0pp
E-mini Russell 2000直近 2849.70	↑64.7% ↓61.9% ✓65% ✓62% +2.8pp	↑26.3% ↓25.4% ✓26% ✓25% +0.9pp	↑5.5% ↓6.4% ✓6% ✓6% -0.8pp	↑1.5% ↓1.8% 1% 2% -0.3pp	↑0.4% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.0pp
Gold直近 4206.10	↑42.1% ↓41.2% ✓42% ✓41% +0.9pp	↑10.0% ↓10.2% ✓10% ✓10% -0.2pp	↑1.5% ↓2.2% ✓1% 2% -0.7pp	↑0.4% ↓0.7% ✓0% 1% -0.3pp	↑0.2% ↓0.3% ✓0% 0% -0.1pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp
WTI Crude直近 89.62	↑37.1% ↓33.1% ✓37% ✓33% +4.0pp	↑5.1% ↓4.1% 5% ✓4% +1.0pp	↑0.5% ↓0.5% 1% ✓1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.1% 0% ✓0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp

E-mini S&P 500GoldWTI Crude

上方向のみ表示。各市場のドロワーに上下両方の完全な曲線あり。

E-mini S&P 500 · 直近値 7883.00

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	64.7%	61.9%	11,335
0.25	26.3%	25.4%	11,335
0.5	5.5%	6.4%	11,335
0.75	1.5%	1.8%	11,335
1	0.4%	0.5%	11,335
1.5	0.1%	0.1%	11,335

E-mini Nasdaq 100 · 直近値 31533.25

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	64.7%	61.9%	11,335
0.25	26.3%	25.4%	11,335
0.5	5.5%	6.4%	11,335
0.75	1.5%	1.8%	11,335
1	0.4%	0.5%	11,335
1.5	0.1%	0.1%	11,335

E-mini Dow · 直近値 51849.00

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	64.7%	61.9%	11,335
0.25	26.3%	25.4%	11,335
0.5	5.5%	6.4%	11,335
0.75	1.5%	1.8%	11,335
1	0.4%	0.5%	11,335
1.5	0.1%	0.1%	11,335

E-mini Russell 2000 · 直近値 2849.70

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	64.7%	61.9%	11,335
0.25	26.3%	25.4%	11,335
0.5	5.5%	6.4%	11,335
0.75	1.5%	1.8%	11,335
1	0.4%	0.5%	11,335
1.5	0.1%	0.1%	11,335

Gold · 直近値 4206.10

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	42.1%	41.2%	9,269
0.25	10.0%	10.2%	9,269
0.5	1.5%	2.2%	9,269
0.75	0.4%	0.7%	9,269
1	0.2%	0.3%	9,269
1.5	0.1%	0.1%	9,269

WTI Crude · 直近値 89.62

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	37.1%	33.1%	9,067
0.25	5.1%	4.1%	9,067
0.5	0.5%	0.5%	9,067
0.75	0.2%	0.1%	9,067
1	0.1%	0.1%	9,067
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	9,067

各追跡 stocks 市場について、セッション基準点から ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR の P(touch)。

履歴期間は2020-2026。この12銘柄は事後選定（survivorship）です。較正はランダムな株ではなく、この銘柄群に適用されます。ライブの凍結スコアカードは公開開始時点から累積します。

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET RTH open, matching the feed's session window for exchange-listed equities.

既知の欠落: No first-hit grid exists for stocks — brackets.json and width_bounds.json have no stock coverage; not yet measured.

市場	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)直近 779.89	↑60.0% ↓62.7% ✓60% 63% -2.7pp	↑20.5% ↓25.5% ✓21% 26% -5.0pp	↑4.4% ↓5.7% ✓4% 6% -1.3pp	↑1.1% ↓1.6% 1% 2% -0.5pp	↑0.2% ↓0.7% 0% 1% -0.5pp	↑0.0% ↓0.2% 0% 0% -0.2pp
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)直近 760.76	↑60.0% ↓62.7% ✓60% ✓63% -2.7pp	↑20.5% ↓25.5% ✓21% 26% -5.0pp	↑4.4% ↓5.7% 4% 6% -1.3pp	↑1.1% ↓1.6% 1% 2% -0.5pp	↑0.2% ↓0.7% 0% 1% -0.5pp	↑0.0% ↓0.2% 0% 0% -0.2pp
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)直近 281.24	↑60.0% ↓62.7% 60% ✓63% -2.7pp	↑20.5% ↓25.5% 21% ✓26% -5.0pp	↑4.4% ↓5.7% 4% ✓6% -1.3pp	↑1.1% ↓1.6% 1% ✓2% -0.5pp	↑0.2% ↓0.7% 0% 1% -0.5pp	↑0.0% ↓0.2% 0% 0% -0.2pp
Apple直近 333.22	↑55.2% ↓60.7% ✓55% ✓61% -5.5pp	↑17.5% ↓22.1% ✓17% ✓22% -4.6pp	↑2.9% ↓3.4% 3% 3% -0.5pp	↑0.5% ↓0.8% 0% 1% -0.3pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp
Microsoft直近 530.77	↑55.2% ↓60.7% ✓55% ✓61% -5.5pp	↑17.5% ↓22.1% ✓17% ✓22% -4.6pp	↑2.9% ↓3.4% 3% 3% -0.5pp	↑0.5% ↓0.8% 0% 1% -0.3pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp
Nvidia直近 239.83	↑55.2% ↓60.7% ✓55% ✓61% -5.5pp	↑17.5% ↓22.1% ✓17% ✓22% -4.6pp	↑2.9% ↓3.4% 3% ✓3% -0.5pp	↑0.5% ↓0.8% 0% 1% -0.3pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp
Amazon直近 256.29	↑55.2% ↓60.7% ✓55% ✓61% -5.5pp	↑17.5% ↓22.1% ✓17% ✓22% -4.6pp	↑2.9% ↓3.4% ✓3% 3% -0.5pp	↑0.5% ↓0.8% 0% 1% -0.3pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp
Alphabet (GOOGL)直近 347.96	↑55.2% ↓60.7% ✓55% ✓61% -5.5pp	↑17.5% ↓22.1% 17% ✓22% -4.6pp	↑2.9% ↓3.4% 3% 3% -0.5pp	↑0.5% ↓0.8% 0% 1% -0.3pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp
Meta Platforms直近 744.01	↑55.2% ↓60.7% 55% ✓61% -5.5pp	↑17.5% ↓22.1% 17% ✓22% -4.6pp	↑2.9% ↓3.4% 3% 3% -0.5pp	↑0.5% ↓0.8% 0% 1% -0.3pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp
Tesla直近 379.58	↑48.9% ↓59.9% ✓49% ✓60% -11.0pp	↑13.9% ↓18.3% 14% ✓18% -4.4pp	↑2.2% ↓1.8% 2% 2% +0.4pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.1pp
AMD直近 655.30	↑48.9% ↓59.9% ✓49% ✓60% -11.0pp	↑13.9% ↓18.3% ✓14% ✓18% -4.4pp	↑2.2% ↓1.8% 2% ✓2% +0.4pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% ✓0% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.1pp
Netflix直近 68.37	↑48.9% ↓59.9% ✓49% ✓60% -11.0pp	↑13.9% ↓18.3% ✓14% 18% -4.4pp	↑2.2% ↓1.8% ✓2% 2% +0.4pp	↑0.2% ↓0.4% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp	↑0.1% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.1pp

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)AppleNvidia

上方向のみ表示。各市場のドロワーに上下両方の完全な曲線あり。

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · 直近値 779.89

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	60.0%	62.7%	1,861
0.25	20.5%	25.5%	1,861
0.5	4.4%	5.7%	1,861
0.75	1.1%	1.6%	1,861
1	0.2%	0.7%	1,861
1.5	0.0%	0.2%	1,861

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) · 直近値 760.76

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	60.0%	62.7%	1,861
0.25	20.5%	25.5%	1,861
0.5	4.4%	5.7%	1,861
0.75	1.1%	1.6%	1,861
1	0.2%	0.7%	1,861
1.5	0.0%	0.2%	1,861

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) · 直近値 281.24

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	60.0%	62.7%	1,861
0.25	20.5%	25.5%	1,861
0.5	4.4%	5.7%	1,861
0.75	1.1%	1.6%	1,861
1	0.2%	0.7%	1,861
1.5	0.0%	0.2%	1,861

Apple · 直近値 333.22

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354
0.75	0.5%	0.8%	4,354
1	0.2%	0.4%	4,354
1.5	0.0%	0.1%	4,354

Microsoft · 直近値 530.77

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354
0.75	0.5%	0.8%	4,354
1	0.2%	0.4%	4,354
1.5	0.0%	0.1%	4,354

Nvidia · 直近値 239.83

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354
0.75	0.5%	0.8%	4,354
1	0.2%	0.4%	4,354
1.5	0.0%	0.1%	4,354

Amazon · 直近値 256.29

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354
0.75	0.5%	0.8%	4,354
1	0.2%	0.4%	4,354
1.5	0.0%	0.1%	4,354

Alphabet (GOOGL) · 直近値 347.96

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354
0.75	0.5%	0.8%	4,354
1	0.2%	0.4%	4,354
1.5	0.0%	0.1%	4,354

Meta Platforms · 直近値 744.01

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354
0.75	0.5%	0.8%	4,354
1	0.2%	0.4%	4,354
1.5	0.0%	0.1%	4,354

Tesla · 直近値 379.58

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	48.9%	59.9%	1,152
0.25	13.9%	18.3%	1,152
0.5	2.2%	1.8%	1,152
0.75	0.2%	0.4%	1,152
1	0.1%	0.3%	1,152
1.5	0.1%	0.0%	1,152

AMD · 直近値 655.30

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	48.9%	59.9%	1,152
0.25	13.9%	18.3%	1,152
0.5	2.2%	1.8%	1,152
0.75	0.2%	0.4%	1,152
1	0.1%	0.3%	1,152
1.5	0.1%	0.0%	1,152

Netflix · 直近値 68.37

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	48.9%	59.9%	1,152
0.25	13.9%	18.3%	1,152
0.5	2.2%	1.8%	1,152
0.75	0.2%	0.4%	1,152
1	0.1%	0.3%	1,152
1.5	0.1%	0.0%	1,152

各追跡 fx 市場について、セッション基準点から ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR の P(touch)。

Live touch/not-touched status isn't shown for FX: the data feed has no reliable 17:00 ET forex-day session open to anchor against, so we show probability only rather than guess.

既知の欠落: XAU (gold) is not yet measured for FX touch levels.

市場	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
EUR/USD直近 1.1264	↑31.1% ↓28.9% —31% —29% +2.3pp	↑4.6% ↓4.4% —5% —4% +0.2pp	↑0.7% ↓0.7% —1% —1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.2% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp
GBP/USD直近 1.3277	↑31.1% ↓28.9% —31% —29% +2.3pp	↑4.6% ↓4.4% —5% —4% +0.2pp	↑0.7% ↓0.7% —1% —1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.2% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp
USD/JPY直近 158.16	↑31.1% ↓28.9% —31% —29% +2.3pp	↑4.6% ↓4.4% —5% —4% +0.2pp	↑0.7% ↓0.7% —1% —1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.2% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp
AUD/USD直近 0.6989	↑31.1% ↓28.9% —31% —29% +2.3pp	↑4.6% ↓4.4% —5% —4% +0.2pp	↑0.7% ↓0.7% —1% —1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.2% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp
USD/CAD直近 1.4207	↑31.1% ↓28.9% —31% —29% +2.3pp	↑4.6% ↓4.4% —5% —4% +0.2pp	↑0.7% ↓0.7% —1% —1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.2% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp
USD/CHF直近 0.8313	↑31.1% ↓28.9% —31% —29% +2.3pp	↑4.6% ↓4.4% —5% —4% +0.2pp	↑0.7% ↓0.7% —1% —1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.2% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp
NZD/USD直近 0.5629	↑31.1% ↓28.9% —31% —29% +2.3pp	↑4.6% ↓4.4% —5% —4% +0.2pp	↑0.7% ↓0.7% —1% —1% -0.0pp	↑0.2% ↓0.2% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp	↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp
Gold spot (XAU/USD)	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —

EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPY

上方向のみ表示。各市場のドロワーに上下両方の完全な曲線あり。

EUR/USD · 直近値 1.1264

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	31.1%	28.9%	8,520
0.25	4.6%	4.4%	8,520
0.5	0.7%	0.7%	8,520
0.75	0.2%	0.2%	8,520
1	0.1%	0.1%	8,520
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	8,520

GBP/USD · 直近値 1.3277

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	31.1%	28.9%	8,520
0.25	4.6%	4.4%	8,520
0.5	0.7%	0.7%	8,520
0.75	0.2%	0.2%	8,520
1	0.1%	0.1%	8,520
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	8,520

USD/JPY · 直近値 158.16

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	31.1%	28.9%	8,520
0.25	4.6%	4.4%	8,520
0.5	0.7%	0.7%	8,520
0.75	0.2%	0.2%	8,520
1	0.1%	0.1%	8,520
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	8,520

AUD/USD · 直近値 0.6989

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	31.1%	28.9%	8,520
0.25	4.6%	4.4%	8,520
0.5	0.7%	0.7%	8,520
0.75	0.2%	0.2%	8,520
1	0.1%	0.1%	8,520
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	8,520

USD/CAD · 直近値 1.4207

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	31.1%	28.9%	8,520
0.25	4.6%	4.4%	8,520
0.5	0.7%	0.7%	8,520
0.75	0.2%	0.2%	8,520
1	0.1%	0.1%	8,520
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	8,520

USD/CHF · 直近値 0.8313

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	31.1%	28.9%	8,520
0.25	4.6%	4.4%	8,520
0.5	0.7%	0.7%	8,520
0.75	0.2%	0.2%	8,520
1	0.1%	0.1%	8,520
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	8,520

NZD/USD · 直近値 0.5629

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	31.1%	28.9%	8,520
0.25	4.6%	4.4%	8,520
0.5	0.7%	0.7%	8,520
0.75	0.2%	0.2%	8,520
1	0.1%	0.1%	8,520
1.5	0.0%	0.0%	8,520

Gold spot (XAU/USD)

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	未測定	未測定	—
0.25	未測定	未測定	—
0.5	未測定	未測定	—
0.75	未測定	未測定	—
1	未測定	未測定	—
1.5	未測定	未測定	—

各追跡 crypto 市場について、セッション基準点から ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR の P(touch)。

週末は静かです。oddsは変わるため、週末用の数値を別に表示します。

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at 00:00 UTC (today's day type: weekday) — the feed's session-range window may not start exactly at that instant, see methodology. Weekends trade a measurably different, thinner regime, so weekday and weekend use separate probability curves.

既知の欠落: day_type=vse (pooled weekday+weekend) is not served — weekday and weekend are measurably different regimes, so the site must always pick the row matching today's UTC day type. Cells flagged rare in the source parquet (p<0.01 or p>0.99; 21.7% of all rows) are dropped entirely, not served — they render as 'not yet measured' the same as any other missing combo.

市場	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR
Bitcoin直近 85523.06	↑70.7% ↓63.8% ✓71% ✓64% +7.0pp	↑32.2% ↓30.0% ✓32% ✓30% +2.2pp	↑9.2% ↓10.4% 9% 10% -1.2pp	↑3.3% ↓4.7% 3% 5% -1.4pp
Ethereum直近 2687.70	↑70.7% ↓63.8% ✓71% ✓64% +7.0pp	↑32.2% ↓30.0% 32% ✓30% +2.2pp	↑9.2% ↓10.4% 9% 10% -1.2pp	↑3.3% ↓4.7% 3% 5% -1.4pp
Solana直近 120.73	↑68.4% ↓64.7% ✓68% ✓65% +3.7pp	↑32.3% ↓31.4% ✓32% ✓31% +0.9pp	↑9.7% ↓10.5% 10% 10% -0.8pp	↑2.8% ↓4.1% 3% 4% -1.3pp
Avalanche直近 11.46	↑68.4% ↓64.7% ✓68% 65% +3.7pp	↑32.3% ↓31.4% ✓32% 31% +0.9pp	↑9.7% ↓10.5% ✓10% 10% -0.8pp	↑2.8% ↓4.1% 3% 4% -1.3pp
Chainlink直近 13.95	↑68.4% ↓64.7% ✓68% ✓65% +3.7pp	↑32.3% ↓31.4% ✓32% 31% +0.9pp	↑9.7% ↓10.5% 10% 10% -0.8pp	↑2.8% ↓4.1% 3% 4% -1.3pp
Dogecoin直近 0.0939	↑68.4% ↓64.7% ✓68% ✓65% +3.7pp	↑32.3% ↓31.4% 32% ✓31% +0.9pp	↑9.7% ↓10.5% 10% 10% -0.8pp	↑2.8% ↓4.1% 3% 4% -1.3pp

BitcoinEthereumSolana

上方向のみ表示。各市場のドロワーに上下両方の完全な曲線あり。

Bitcoin · 直近値 85523.06

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	70.7%	63.8%	1,700
0.25	32.2%	30.0%	1,700
0.5	9.2%	10.4%	1,700
0.75	3.3%	4.7%	1,700

Ethereum · 直近値 2687.70

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	70.7%	63.8%	1,700
0.25	32.2%	30.0%	1,700
0.5	9.2%	10.4%	1,700
0.75	3.3%	4.7%	1,700

Solana · 直近値 120.73

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	68.4%	64.7%	2,627
0.25	32.3%	31.4%	2,627
0.5	9.7%	10.5%	2,627
0.75	2.8%	4.1%	2,627

Avalanche · 直近値 11.46

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	68.4%	64.7%	2,627
0.25	32.3%	31.4%	2,627
0.5	9.7%	10.5%	2,627
0.75	2.8%	4.1%	2,627

Chainlink · 直近値 13.95

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	68.4%	64.7%	2,627
0.25	32.3%	31.4%	2,627
0.5	9.7%	10.5%	2,627
0.75	2.8%	4.1%	2,627

Dogecoin · 直近値 0.0939

距離 (ATR)	P(上方向タッチ)	P(下方向タッチ)	n
0.1	68.4%	64.7%	2,627
0.25	32.3%	31.4%	2,627
0.5	9.7%	10.5%	2,627
0.75	2.8%	4.1%	2,627

読み方: 各セルは、セッション基準点からその時間軸が終わる前に価格が ±d ATR に触れる確率を、上半分と下半分に分けたもの。ライブ状態はその水準を今日の実際の高値/安値と比較する。チェックマークは今日すでに発生、点滅ドットはセッション進行中で未発生、空円はセッション終了まで未発生。非対称性は P(up) minus P(down) をパーセントポイントで示す。各側がどれだけ触れられるかの偏りで、売買シグナルではない。

指数先物、株式セクター群（ETFs / mega-caps / high-beta）と暗号資産群（BTC & ETH / alt L1s）は、それぞれ1つの確率面を共有する。同じグループ内で数値が一致するのは仕様であり、バグではない。