foxalgoAvalanche (AVAXUSDT)
last quote 9.1430 · as of 17:27 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-22T21:15:46.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
AVAXUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 9.30 | 20.3% | ✓ touched |
| -0.25 ATR | 8.99 | 21.8% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 9.46 | 5.0% | ✓ touched |
| -0.50 ATR | 8.83 | 5.9% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 9.61 | 1.7% | ✓ touched |
| -0.75 ATR | 8.67 | 2.0% | not touched yet |
Live hit rate — AVAXUSDT
By tier
| Tier | Hit | n | Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 43 | 48 | 89.6% |
| A | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| B | 0 | 0 | — |
Range state now
Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.
| TF | Direction | High | Mid | Low | Size (ATR) | Position | Age (bars) | Before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m | ▼ | 9.1170 | 9.0945 | 9.0720 | 1.1 | 38% | 0 | |
| 30m | ▼ | 9.1350 | 9.1150 | 9.0950 | 0.7 | 33% | 0 | |
| 1h | ▼ | 9.1990 | 9.1240 | 9.0490 | 1.6 | 47% | 3 | |
| 2h | ▼ | 9.1990 | 9.1240 | 9.0490 | 1.0 | 47% | 1 | |
| 4h | ▼ | 9.1990 | 9.1240 | 9.0490 | 0.7 | 47% | 0 |
See the range state of every market
Historical backfill, year by year
This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.
AVAXUSDT: 91.1% actual vs. 88.7% stated (+2.4 pp) across 20,440 calls
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 33.1% | 35.0% | 2,627 |
| 0.25 | 7.8% | 7.8% | 2,627 |
| 0.5 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2,627 |
Measured from the 1260-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekday).
AVAXUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekday)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) up | down level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 9.2994 | 20.3% | 8.9866 | 21.8% | 2,627 |
| 0.5 | 9.4559 | 5.0% | 8.8301 | 5.9% | 2,627 |
| 0.75 | 9.6123 | 1.7% | 8.6737 | 2.0% | 2,627 |
Brackets
Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Avalanche
alt L1s
MAE: 1.35 pp · n = 236,491,175
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 11.29 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-13 | 10.48 | 40.2% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-14 | 10.53 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-15 | 10.30 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-16 | 10.35 | 40.2% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-17 | 10.25 | 32.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-18 | 10.06 | 32.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-19 | 10.09 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-20 | 9.9227 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-21 | 10.06 | 40.2% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.