Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) (QQQ)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 704.47 · as of 17:27 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-22T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / QQQ CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 704.47

QQQ · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	707.29	12.8%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	701.65	16.1%	○ not touched
+0.50 ATR	710.10	1.2%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	698.84	1.9%	○ not touched
+0.75 ATR	712.92	0.3%	✓ touched
-0.75 ATR	696.02	0.5%	○ not touched
+1.00 ATR	715.73	0.1%	○ not touched
-1.00 ATR	693.21	0.3%	○ not touched
+1.50 ATR	721.37	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.50 ATR	687.57	0.0%	○ not touched

today's range so far

13.53

high 715.43 / low 701.90 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

19.0%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-9.2100

open 713.68

Live hit rate — QQQ

Live hit rate

95%

n = 42

95% confidence interval

84–99%

Wilson interval

All six markets

95%

n = 42

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

QQQ minus the combined rate, in percentage points

506070809010012

Oct 14Oct 16Oct 22

QQQAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	36	38	94.7%
A	4	4	100.0%
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

1 up, 4 down

As of 2026-10-22 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	704.83	703.52	702.21	1.4	91%	1
30m	▲	704.84	703.61	702.38	0.9	90%	1
1h	▼	706.83	705.10	703.37	1.1	35%	2
2h	▼	710.29	707.38	704.47	1.1	2%	2
4h	▼	715.43	709.95	704.47	1.7	1%	1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

QQQ: 89.9% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.6 pp) across 33,654 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / QQQ INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	60.0%	62.7%	1,861
0.25	20.5%	25.5%	1,861
0.5	4.4%	5.7%	1,861

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / QQQ INSTRUMENT 01

QQQ · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	707.29	12.9%	701.65	16.1%	1,861
0.5	710.10	1.2%	698.84	1.9%	1,861
0.75	712.92	0.3%	696.02	0.5%	1,861
1	715.73	0.1%	693.21	0.3%	1,861
1.5	721.37	0.0%	687.57	0.0%	1,861

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

ETF

MAE: 1.09 pp · n = 7,475,484

0-20%

predicted 3.9% · realized 4.5% · n = 4,907,228

20-40%

predicted 29.3% · realized 29.8% · n = 843,064

40-60%

predicted 50.4% · realized 50.2% · n = 727,647

60-80%

predicted 70.5% · realized 70.7% · n = 757,861

80-100%

predicted 82.4% · realized 81.8% · n = 239,684

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-08	758.54	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-09	757.40	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-12	753.95	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-13	743.75	1.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-14	742.14	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-15	723.03	1.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-16	730.28	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-19	724.65	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-20	720.63	1.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-21	727.78	1.2%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →