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E-mini S&P 500 (ES)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 23:35 ET

last quote 7751.00 · as of 23:56 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-20T03:35:27.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / ES CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 7751

ES · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR7771.3315.5%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR7730.6715.9%✓ touched
+0.50 ATR7791.662.2%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR7710.342.4%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR7811.990.5%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR7690.010.5%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR7832.320.2%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR7669.680.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR7872.980.0%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR7629.020.0%not touched yet
today's range so far
49.25
high 7773.25 / low 7724.00 · n=93 bars
position in today's range
54.8%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-15.25
open 7766.25

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — ES

Live hit rate
93%
n = 266
95% confidence interval
90–96%
Wilson interval
All six markets
93%
n = 266
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
ES minus the combined rate, in percentage points
2026-09-09: 8 resolved2026-09-10: 6 resolved2026-09-11: 3 resolved2026-09-14: 3 resolved2026-09-16: 3 resolved2026-09-17: 1 resolved2026-09-18: 15 resolved2026-09-20: 8 resolved2026-09-21: 68 resolved2026-09-23: 1 resolved2026-09-24: 11 resolved2026-09-25: 2 resolved2026-09-29: 5 resolved2026-10-02: 8 resolved2026-10-05: 22 resolved2026-10-06: 22 resolved2026-10-08: 1 resolved2026-10-09: 2 resolved2026-10-11: 9 resolved2026-10-12: 16 resolved2026-10-14: 21 resolved2026-10-15: 13 resolved2026-10-16: 2 resolved
506070809010068
Sep 09Sep 16Sep 23Oct 02Oct 11Oct 16
ESAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S24526393.2%
A33100.0%
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

E-mini S&P 500
2 up, 3 down
As of 2026-10-19 23:15 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲7751.257748.757746.250.885%1
30m▼7753.257742.007730.752.189%12
1h▼7754.257742.507730.751.585%6
2h▲7773.257750.387727.502.045%5
4h▼7796.507746.007695.503.052%8

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002011 stated: 86.9%2011 actual: 90.4% (+3.5 pp) -- n = 3,41220112012 stated: 87.4%2012 actual: 87.3% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 2,96920122013 stated: 88.1%2013 actual: 86.7% (-1.5 pp) -- n = 3,31820132014 stated: 87.7%2014 actual: 86.9% (-0.8 pp) -- n = 3,31220142015 stated: 88.2%2015 actual: 88.2% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 3,20020152016 stated: 87.8%2016 actual: 88.3% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 3,54520162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 87.6% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 2,85720172018 stated: 87.9%2018 actual: 90.8% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 4,41320182019 stated: 88.3%2019 actual: 88.7% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 3,61920192020 stated: 88.0%2020 actual: 90.7% (+2.7 pp) -- n = 4,64820202021 stated: 88.9%2021 actual: 90.6% (+1.6 pp) -- n = 4,74020212022 stated: 89.0%2022 actual: 90.0% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 5,24020222023 stated: 88.9%2023 actual: 90.7% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 4,85820232024 stated: 88.9%2024 actual: 90.1% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 5,46020242025 stated: 89.1%2025 actual: 91.2% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 5,11320252026 stated: 89.3%2026 actual: 92.8% (+3.5 pp) -- n = 3,4132026

ES: 89.7% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+1.3 pp) across 64,117 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.606 → narrow (n = 11,560)

narrow < 1.087, typical < 1.645, else wide — based on a partial-session window (93 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / ES INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.145.4%40.6%11,244
0.259.4%8.5%11,244
0.51.2%1.2%11,244

Measured from the 1320-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / ES INSTRUMENT 01

ES · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.257771.3315.5%7730.6715.9%11,335
0.57791.662.2%7710.342.4%11,335
0.757811.990.5%7690.010.5%11,335
17832.320.2%7669.680.1%11,335
1.57872.980.0%7629.020.0%11,335

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 390 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR33.8%62.5%3.8%9,954
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR45.3%42.1%12.7%9,954
1 ATR0.5 ATR19.2%48.5%32.3%9,954

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini S&P 500

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%
predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676
20-40%
predicted 28.7% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116
40-60%
predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743
60-80%
predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767
80-100%
predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-10-067874.882.2%touched ✓
2026-10-077922.792.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-087890.822.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-097861.652.2%touched ✓
2026-10-127909.302.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-137891.902.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-147890.692.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-157804.922.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-167826.072.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-197718.812.2%touched ✓

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-10-19+0.5 ATR → 7770.6739.7%touched7739.757773.25 / 7727.5
2026-10-19-0.5 ATR → 7708.8340.6%not touched7739.757773.25 / 7727.5
2026-10-16+0.5 ATR → 7832.0339.7%not touched7803.57796.5 / 7676
2026-10-16-0.5 ATR → 7774.9740.6%touched7803.57796.5 / 7676
2026-10-15+0.5 ATR → 7774.4739.7%touched7746.757801.75 / 7717.25
2026-10-15-0.5 ATR → 7719.0340.6%touched7746.757801.75 / 7717.25
2026-10-14+0.5 ATR → 7852.3539.7%not touched78267837.75 / 7741
2026-10-14-0.5 ATR → 7799.6540.6%touched78267837.75 / 7741
2026-10-13+0.5 ATR → 7875.2339.7%not touched7847.57861 / 7834.5
2026-10-13-0.5 ATR → 7819.7740.6%not touched7847.57861 / 7834.5
2026-10-12+0.5 ATR → 7894.0739.7%not touched7866.257868 / 7846.25
2026-10-12-0.5 ATR → 7838.4340.6%not touched7866.257868 / 7846.25
2026-10-09+0.5 ATR → 7870.4439.7%touched78417870.5 / 7826.75
2026-10-09-0.5 ATR → 7811.5640.6%not touched78417870.5 / 7826.75
2026-10-08+0.5 ATR → 7854.0939.7%not touched7825.57850 / 7783
2026-10-08-0.5 ATR → 7796.9140.6%touched7825.57850 / 7783
2026-10-07+0.5 ATR → 7869.8039.7%not touched7841.57859.5 / 7815.75
2026-10-07-0.5 ATR → 7813.2040.6%not touched7841.57859.5 / 7815.75
2026-10-06+0.5 ATR → 7892.6539.7%touched7861.257897.5 / 7865.25
2026-10-06-0.5 ATR → 7829.8540.6%not touched7861.257897.5 / 7865.25

See all verified findings →