Daily wrap-up — 2026-10-19

Predictions are P(touch) on ±0.5 ATR, frozen before the session opens. This is a calibration check, not a directional "win" or "loss".

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Says → lands

Every prediction is frozen before the session opens and graded after it closes — nothing here is rewritten after the fact.

Lifetime · Weighted calibration

3.14 pp

Average gap between what we said and what landed, across 1,700 evaluated predictions, weighted by sample size. Zero is perfect.

Last 90 days · Weighted calibration

2.88 pp

Average gap between what we said and what landed, across 1,520 evaluated predictions, weighted by sample size. Zero is perfect.

▲ says (predicted) · ● lands (realized) · band = 95% CI. Highlighted when says falls outside the band.

tier	says	lands	calibration	n
25-30%	28.7%	19.4%	[12.0%, 30.0%]	72
35-40%	39.4%	38.3%	[35.1%, 41.7%]	814
40-45%	41.2%	45.9%	[42.5%, 49.4%]	814

Tiers with no evaluated predictions are omitted.

tier	says	lands	calibration	n
25-30%	28.7%	19.4%	[12.0%, 30.0%]	72
35-40%	39.3%	38.7%	[35.2%, 42.3%]	724
40-45%	41.3%	45.7%	[42.1%, 49.4%]	724

Tiers with no evaluated predictions are omitted.

predictions

24 evaluated · 0 pending

mean predicted

40.3%

average P(touch) across evaluated predictions

realized share

33.3%

share of evaluated predictions that touched

calibration gap

-6.94 pp

realized share minus mean predicted

Brier score

0.227

mean squared error of predicted vs. outcome — lower is better, 0 is perfect

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
WTI Crude	+0.50 ATR	39.5%	touched
WTI Crude	-0.50 ATR	41.3%	not touched
E-mini S&P 500	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	touched
E-mini S&P 500	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	not touched
Gold	+0.50 ATR	38.4%	not touched
Gold	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	touched
E-mini Nasdaq 100	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	touched
E-mini Nasdaq 100	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	not touched
E-mini Russell 2000	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
E-mini Russell 2000	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	not touched
E-mini Dow	+0.50 ATR	39.7%	touched
E-mini Dow	-0.50 ATR	40.6%	not touched

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Apple	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	not touched
Apple	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
Microsoft	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	touched
Microsoft	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
Nvidia	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	touched
Nvidia	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	not touched
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	+0.50 ATR	40.8%	touched
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	-0.50 ATR	42.0%	not touched

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Bitcoin	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	not touched
Bitcoin	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	not touched
Ethereum	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	not touched
Ethereum	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	not touched