Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOGL)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 324.22 · as of 17:27 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-22T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / GOOGL CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 324.22

GOOGL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	326.25	9.8%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	322.19	13.0%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	328.27	1.0%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	320.17	1.1%	○ not touched
+0.75 ATR	330.30	0.1%	✓ touched
-0.75 ATR	318.14	0.3%	○ not touched
+1.00 ATR	332.33	0.1%	○ not touched
-1.00 ATR	316.11	0.1%	○ not touched
+1.50 ATR	336.38	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.50 ATR	312.06	0.0%	○ not touched

today's range so far

9.4300

high 331.43 / low 322.00 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

23.5%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-5.9850

open 330.20

Live hit rate — GOOGL

Live hit rate

100%

n = 20

95% confidence interval

84–100%

Wilson interval

All six markets

100%

n = 20

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

GOOGL minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	19	19	100.0%
A	1	1	100.0%
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

3 up, 2 down

As of 2026-10-22 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▲	324.49	323.24	322.00	2.6	89%	0
30m	▲	324.49	323.24	322.00	1.7	89%	0
1h	▲	324.49	323.24	322.00	1.3	89%	0
2h	▼	326.49	324.52	322.55	1.3	42%	1
4h	▼	326.49	324.24	322.00	0.9	49%	0

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

GOOGL: 89.1% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.8 pp) across 17,803 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / GOOGL INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / GOOGL INSTRUMENT 01

GOOGL · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	326.25	9.8%	322.19	13.0%	4,354
0.5	328.27	1.0%	320.17	1.1%	4,354
0.75	330.30	0.1%	318.14	0.3%	4,354
1	332.33	0.1%	316.11	0.1%	4,354
1.5	336.38	0.0%	312.06	0.0%	4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Alphabet (GOOGL)

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%

predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483

20-40%

predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961

40-60%

predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144

60-80%

predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510

80-100%

predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-08	357.61	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-09	355.81	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-12	356.19	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-10-13	360.28	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-14	359.38	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-10-15	348.72	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-10-16	352.50	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-19	348.15	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-20	348.17	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-10-21	341.31	1.0%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →