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E-mini Dow (YM)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:59 ET

last quote 53085.00 · as of 17:27 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-22T20:59:57.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / YM CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 53085

YM · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR53236.2315.5%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR52933.7715.9%✓ touched
+0.50 ATR53387.462.2%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR52782.542.4%✓ touched
+0.75 ATR53538.700.5%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR52631.300.5%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR53689.930.2%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR52480.070.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR53992.390.0%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR52177.610.0%not touched yet
today's range so far
486.00
high 53130.00 / low 52644.00 · n=69 bars
position in today's range
90.7%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+171.00
open 52914.00

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — YM

Live hit rate
90%
n = 286
95% confidence interval
86–93%
Wilson interval
All six markets
90%
n = 286
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
YM minus the combined rate, in percentage points
2026-09-08: 16 resolved2026-09-09: 27 resolved2026-09-10: 9 resolved2026-09-14: 2 resolved2026-09-15: 3 resolved2026-09-16: 5 resolved2026-09-21: 3 resolved2026-09-22: 5 resolved2026-09-23: 22 resolved2026-09-24: 12 resolved2026-09-25: 2 resolved2026-09-30: 3 resolved2026-10-01: 7 resolved2026-10-02: 3 resolved2026-10-06: 15 resolved2026-10-07: 4 resolved2026-10-08: 15 resolved2026-10-09: 18 resolved2026-10-11: 10 resolved2026-10-12: 25 resolved2026-10-13: 28 resolved2026-10-14: 9 resolved2026-10-15: 4 resolved2026-10-16: 16 resolved2026-10-19: 1 resolved2026-10-20: 2 resolved2026-10-21: 12 resolved
506070809010028
Sep 08Sep 16Sep 25Oct 08Oct 14Oct 21
YMAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S25328289.7%
A44100.0%
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

E-mini Dow
5 up, 0 down
As of 2026-10-22 16:45 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▲53098.0053036.5052975.001.589%3
30m▲53098.0053036.5052975.001.089%1
1h▲53098.0053002.5052907.001.488%0
2h▲53098.0052988.0052878.001.290%0
4h▲53022.0052833.0052644.001.487%1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002011 stated: 87.1%2011 actual: 87.7% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 3,48520112012 stated: 87.4%2012 actual: 88.7% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 3,11920122013 stated: 88.0%2013 actual: 86.1% (-1.9 pp) -- n = 3,41920132014 stated: 87.8%2014 actual: 87.8% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 3,40820142015 stated: 88.0%2015 actual: 88.0% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 3,28920152016 stated: 87.8%2016 actual: 89.0% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 3,60820162017 stated: 87.7%2017 actual: 87.6% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 3,21420172018 stated: 88.0%2018 actual: 91.6% (+3.7 pp) -- n = 4,16520182019 stated: 88.3%2019 actual: 88.8% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 3,33920192020 stated: 88.0%2020 actual: 91.4% (+3.4 pp) -- n = 4,24720202021 stated: 88.8%2021 actual: 90.5% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 4,10120212022 stated: 89.0%2022 actual: 89.4% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 4,67220222023 stated: 88.6%2023 actual: 89.3% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 4,23020232024 stated: 88.7%2024 actual: 89.1% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 4,80020242025 stated: 89.1%2025 actual: 89.3% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 4,34620252026 stated: 88.9%2026 actual: 89.7% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 3,3252026

YM: 89.1% actual vs. 88.2% stated (+0.9 pp) across 60,767 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.803 → narrow (n = 11,559)

narrow < 0.847, typical < 1.335, else wide — based on a partial-session window (69 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / YM INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.164.6%59.5%11,555
0.2526.1%25.8%11,555
0.53.9%7.3%11,555

Measured from the 1020-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / YM INSTRUMENT 01

YM · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.2553236.2315.5%52933.7715.9%11,335
0.553387.462.2%52782.542.4%11,335
0.7553538.700.5%52631.300.5%11,335
153689.930.2%52480.070.1%11,335
1.553992.390.0%52177.610.0%11,335

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 390 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR33.8%62.5%3.8%9,954
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR45.3%42.1%12.7%9,954
1 ATR0.5 ATR19.2%48.5%32.3%9,954

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini Dow

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%
predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676
20-40%
predicted 28.7% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116
40-60%
predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743
60-80%
predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767
80-100%
predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-10-0851716.042.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-0951797.072.2%touched ✓
2026-10-1252263.542.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-1352386.462.2%touched ✓
2026-10-1452217.362.2%not touched ✗
2026-10-1552148.822.2%touched ✓
2026-10-1652743.642.2%touched ✓
2026-10-1952375.752.2%touched ✓
2026-10-2052541.292.2%touched ✓
2026-10-2153097.752.2%touched ✓

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-10-22+0.5 ATR → 53022.8939.7%touched5277853130 / 52703
2026-10-22-0.5 ATR → 52533.1140.6%not touched5277853130 / 52703
2026-10-21+0.5 ATR → 53230.8239.7%not touched5298053073 / 52602
2026-10-21-0.5 ATR → 52729.1840.6%touched5298053073 / 52602
2026-10-20+0.5 ATR → 52419.6839.7%touched5217652920 / 52397
2026-10-20-0.5 ATR → 51932.3240.6%not touched5217652920 / 52397
2026-10-19+0.5 ATR → 52322.3639.7%touched5207552349 / 52063
2026-10-19-0.5 ATR → 51827.6440.6%not touched5207552349 / 52063
2026-10-16+0.5 ATR → 52730.0739.7%touched5249652823 / 52065
2026-10-16-0.5 ATR → 52261.9340.6%touched5249652823 / 52065
2026-10-15+0.5 ATR → 52302.7939.7%touched5207052503 / 51922
2026-10-15-0.5 ATR → 51837.2140.6%not touched5207052503 / 51922
2026-10-14+0.5 ATR → 52048.0039.7%touched5182052118 / 51602
2026-10-14-0.5 ATR → 51592.0040.6%not touched5182052118 / 51602
2026-10-13+0.5 ATR → 52759.4339.7%not touched5254552346 / 51836
2026-10-13-0.5 ATR → 52330.5740.6%touched5254552346 / 51836
2026-10-12+0.5 ATR → 52172.5439.7%touched5194452182 / 51971
2026-10-12-0.5 ATR → 51715.4640.6%not touched5194452182 / 51971
2026-10-09+0.5 ATR → 51742.9639.7%touched5152052032 / 51562
2026-10-09-0.5 ATR → 51297.0440.6%not touched5152052032 / 51562

See all verified findings →