Session Odds
For each trading session, the measured probability that price reaches a given ATR distance from that session's own open before the session closes. Measured, not predicted — read off the same touch-probability surface as every other page here.
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
ASIA
Anchored at asia open, 20:00 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 02:00 ET (360 min). Measured from Asia's own open — not the prior close, not right now.
Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 65.7% n=10,865 | 62.6% n=10,865 |
| 0.25 | 36.5% n=10,865 | 35.9% n=10,865 |
| 0.5 | 17.0% n=10,865 | 18.2% n=10,865 |
| 0.75 | 9.8% n=10,865 | 11.2% n=10,865 |
| 1 | 6.1% n=10,865 | 7.2% n=10,865 |
Energy futures (CL)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 53.7% n=8,099 | 52.8% n=8,099 |
| 0.25 | 16.0% n=8,099 | 16.1% n=8,099 |
| 0.5 | 2.3% n=8,099 | 2.7% n=8,099 |
| 0.75 | 0.6% n=8,099 | 0.8% n=8,099 |
| 1 | 0.2% n=8,099 | 0.3% n=8,099 |
Metals futures (GC)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 76.3% n=9,324 | 75.3% n=9,324 |
| 0.25 | 47.6% n=9,324 | 47.4% n=9,324 |
| 0.5 | 19.4% n=9,324 | 20.3% n=9,324 |
| 0.75 | 7.3% n=9,324 | 8.8% n=9,324 |
| 1 | 2.9% n=9,324 | 4.2% n=9,324 |
FX majors
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 60.9% n=8,522 | 59.6% n=8,522 |
| 0.25 | 24.0% n=8,522 | 22.6% n=8,522 |
| 0.5 | 5.0% n=8,522 | 4.9% n=8,522 |
| 0.75 | 1.2% n=8,522 | 1.6% n=8,522 |
| 1 | 0.4% n=8,522 | 0.6% n=8,522 |
Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 63.1% n=1,265 | 64.3% n=1,265 |
| 0.25 | 25.6% n=1,265 | 25.4% n=1,265 |
| 0.5 | 4.0% n=1,265 | 5.5% n=1,265 |
| 0.75 | 1.3% n=1,265 | 1.4% n=1,265 |
| 1 | 0.6% n=1,265 | 0.5% n=1,265 |
LONDON
Anchored at london open, 02:00 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 08:00 ET (360 min). Measured from London's own open, independent of how Asia traded.
Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 77.3% n=11,111 | 72.8% n=11,111 |
| 0.25 | 47.1% n=11,111 | 42.1% n=11,111 |
| 0.5 | 18.2% n=11,111 | 18.3% n=11,111 |
| 0.75 | 7.7% n=11,111 | 7.9% n=11,111 |
| 1 | 3.5% n=11,111 | 3.9% n=11,111 |
Energy futures (CL)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 75.9% n=8,191 | 77.8% n=8,191 |
| 0.25 | 47.4% n=8,191 | 49.6% n=8,191 |
| 0.5 | 18.5% n=8,191 | 18.5% n=8,191 |
| 0.75 | 6.4% n=8,191 | 6.5% n=8,191 |
| 1 | 2.1% n=8,191 | 2.1% n=8,191 |
Metals futures (GC)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 79.9% n=9,444 | 82.7% n=9,444 |
| 0.25 | 55.5% n=9,444 | 61.3% n=9,444 |
| 0.5 | 27.4% n=9,444 | 32.8% n=9,444 |
| 0.75 | 12.6% n=9,444 | 16.1% n=9,444 |
| 1 | 5.8% n=9,444 | 7.8% n=9,444 |
FX majors
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 73.7% n=8,521 | 72.7% n=8,521 |
| 0.25 | 41.6% n=8,521 | 41.8% n=8,521 |
| 0.5 | 12.7% n=8,521 | 13.2% n=8,521 |
| 0.75 | 3.8% n=8,521 | 4.1% n=8,521 |
| 1 | 1.3% n=8,521 | 1.5% n=8,521 |
Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 67.0% n=1,265 | 71.2% n=1,265 |
| 0.25 | 32.8% n=1,265 | 36.9% n=1,265 |
| 0.5 | 8.1% n=1,265 | 8.8% n=1,265 |
| 0.75 | 2.1% n=1,265 | 3.0% n=1,265 |
| 1 | 0.8% n=1,265 | 1.2% n=1,265 |
PRE-NY
Anchored at pre-ny open, 08:00 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 09:30 ET (90 min). The US pre-market — measured from 08:00 ET (the 08:30 macro releases land inside this window) up to the 09:30 RTH open.
The session is running — the right-hand columns show what is still reachable from this point; the gap versus the open columns is what the session has already spent.
Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)
| distance (ATR) | at open | right now (0m in) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 57.6% n=11,519 | 57.7% n=11,519 | 57.6% n=11,519 | 57.7% n=11,519 |
| 0.25 | 22.1% n=11,519 | 23.2% n=11,519 | 22.1% n=11,519 | 23.2% n=11,519 |
| 0.5 | 5.1% n=11,519 | 5.3% n=11,519 | 5.1% n=11,519 | 5.3% n=11,519 |
| 0.75 | 1.5% n=11,519 | 1.7% n=11,519 | 1.5% n=11,519 | 1.7% n=11,519 |
| 1 | 0.5% n=11,519 | 0.6% n=11,519 | 0.5% n=11,519 | 0.6% n=11,519 |
Energy futures (CL)
| distance (ATR) | at open | right now (0m in) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 73.0% n=9,138 | 74.6% n=9,138 | 73.0% n=9,138 | 74.6% n=9,138 |
| 0.25 | 40.6% n=9,138 | 42.6% n=9,138 | 40.6% n=9,138 | 42.6% n=9,138 |
| 0.5 | 12.0% n=9,138 | 13.7% n=9,138 | 12.0% n=9,138 | 13.7% n=9,138 |
| 0.75 | 3.4% n=9,138 | 4.1% n=9,138 | 3.4% n=9,138 | 4.1% n=9,138 |
| 1 | 0.9% n=9,138 | 1.1% n=9,138 | 0.9% n=9,138 | 1.1% n=9,138 |
Metals futures (GC)
| distance (ATR) | at open | right now (0m in) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 78.0% n=9,560 | 77.0% n=9,560 | 78.0% n=9,560 | 77.0% n=9,560 |
| 0.25 | 51.6% n=9,560 | 50.4% n=9,560 | 51.6% n=9,560 | 50.4% n=9,560 |
| 0.5 | 22.3% n=9,560 | 22.2% n=9,560 | 22.3% n=9,560 | 22.2% n=9,560 |
| 0.75 | 9.2% n=9,560 | 9.3% n=9,560 | 9.2% n=9,560 | 9.3% n=9,560 |
| 1 | 4.2% n=9,560 | 4.4% n=9,560 | 4.2% n=9,560 | 4.4% n=9,560 |
FX majors
| distance (ATR) | at open | right now (0m in) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 60.4% n=8,521 | 59.5% n=8,521 | 60.4% n=8,521 | 59.5% n=8,521 |
| 0.25 | 23.5% n=8,521 | 23.7% n=8,521 | 23.5% n=8,521 | 23.7% n=8,521 |
| 0.5 | 5.6% n=8,521 | 5.8% n=8,521 | 5.6% n=8,521 | 5.8% n=8,521 |
| 0.75 | 2.1% n=8,521 | 2.0% n=8,521 | 2.1% n=8,521 | 2.0% n=8,521 |
| 1 | 0.9% n=8,521 | 0.8% n=8,521 | 0.9% n=8,521 | 0.8% n=8,521 |
Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)
| distance (ATR) | at open | right now (0m in) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 65.8% n=1,265 | 68.2% n=1,265 | 65.8% n=1,265 | 68.2% n=1,265 |
| 0.25 | 30.0% n=1,265 | 30.8% n=1,265 | 30.0% n=1,265 | 30.8% n=1,265 |
| 0.5 | 7.8% n=1,265 | 7.8% n=1,265 | 7.8% n=1,265 | 7.8% n=1,265 |
| 0.75 | 2.5% n=1,265 | 2.6% n=1,265 | 2.5% n=1,265 | 2.6% n=1,265 |
| 1 | 0.9% n=1,265 | 1.4% n=1,265 | 0.9% n=1,265 | 1.4% n=1,265 |
NEW YORK
Anchored at new york open, 09:30 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 16:00 ET (390 min). Measured from the 09:30 ET New York open through the 16:00 ET close.
Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 85.9% n=11,556 | 84.7% n=11,556 |
| 0.25 | 66.7% n=11,556 | 64.9% n=11,556 |
| 0.5 | 39.6% n=11,556 | 40.6% n=11,556 |
| 0.75 | 21.0% n=11,556 | 24.7% n=11,556 |
| 1 | 10.6% n=11,556 | 15.0% n=11,556 |
Energy futures (CL)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 84.8% n=9,269 | 86.5% n=9,269 |
| 0.25 | 65.1% n=9,269 | 66.2% n=9,269 |
| 0.5 | 39.5% n=9,269 | 41.4% n=9,269 |
| 0.75 | 22.0% n=9,269 | 24.3% n=9,269 |
| 1 | 11.4% n=9,269 | 13.4% n=9,269 |
Metals futures (GC)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 84.6% n=9,576 | 84.9% n=9,576 |
| 0.25 | 64.6% n=9,576 | 64.6% n=9,576 |
| 0.5 | 38.4% n=9,576 | 39.7% n=9,576 |
| 0.75 | 21.8% n=9,576 | 22.7% n=9,576 |
| 1 | 12.1% n=9,576 | 13.2% n=9,576 |
FX majors
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 73.9% n=8,523 | 73.2% n=8,523 |
| 0.25 | 44.6% n=8,523 | 44.2% n=8,523 |
| 0.5 | 15.5% n=8,523 | 16.1% n=8,523 |
| 0.75 | 5.3% n=8,523 | 5.9% n=8,523 |
| 1 | 2.2% n=8,523 | 2.6% n=8,523 |
Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)
| distance (ATR) | at open | |
|---|---|---|
| UP | DOWN | |
| 0.1 | 74.5% n=1,265 | 74.8% n=1,265 |
| 0.25 | 44.7% n=1,265 | 44.8% n=1,265 |
| 0.5 | 18.7% n=1,265 | 18.3% n=1,265 |
| 0.75 | 7.5% n=1,265 | 7.3% n=1,265 |
| 1 | 3.5% n=1,265 | 3.2% n=1,265 |