foxalgoEthereum (ETHUSDT)
last quote 2391.27 · as of 17:27 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-22T21:15:52.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
ETHUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 2415.78 | 21.0% | ✓ touched |
| -0.25 ATR | 2366.76 | 21.2% | ✓ touched |
| +0.50 ATR | 2440.28 | 4.9% | ✓ touched |
| -0.50 ATR | 2342.26 | 5.3% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 2464.79 | 1.7% | ✓ touched |
| -0.75 ATR | 2317.75 | 2.3% | not touched yet |
Live hit rate — ETHUSDT
collecting data
By tier
| Tier | Hit | n | Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 21 | 23 | 91.3% |
| A | 0 | 0 | — |
| B | 0 | 0 | — |
Range state now
Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.
| TF | Direction | High | Mid | Low | Size (ATR) | Position | Age (bars) | Before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m | ▲ | 2392.67 | 2387.06 | 2381.45 | 1.3 | 21% | 5 | |
| 30m | ▼ | 2394.85 | 2377.43 | 2360.01 | 2.8 | 72% | 7 | |
| 1h | ▼ | 2402.81 | 2381.41 | 2360.01 | 2.6 | 63% | 3 | |
| 2h | ▼ | 2402.81 | 2381.41 | 2360.01 | 1.6 | 63% | 1 | |
| 4h | ▼ | 2402.81 | 2381.41 | 2360.01 | 1.2 | 63% | 0 |
See the range state of every market
Historical backfill, year by year
This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.
ETHUSDT: 92.1% actual vs. 87.7% stated (+4.4 pp) across 17,586 calls
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 34.9% | 33.3% | 1,700 |
| 0.25 | 6.3% | 8.2% | 1,700 |
| 0.5 | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1,700 |
Measured from the 1260-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekday).
ETHUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekday)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) up | down level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 2415.78 | 21.0% | 2366.76 | 21.2% | 1,700 |
| 0.5 | 2440.28 | 4.9% | 2342.26 | 5.4% | 1,700 |
| 0.75 | 2464.79 | 1.7% | 2317.75 | 2.3% | 1,700 |
Brackets
Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Ethereum
BTC & ETH
MAE: 1.70 pp · n = 117,041,556
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 2573.04 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-13 | 2484.54 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-14 | 2537.98 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-15 | 2461.08 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-16 | 2486.79 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-17 | 2465.24 | 29.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-18 | 2447.35 | 29.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-19 | 2457.99 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-20 | 2454.16 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-21 | 2498.27 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.