foxalgoEthereum (ETHUSDT)
last quote 1884.23 · as of 16:30 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-16T20:30:22.000Z)
Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.
Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
not yet measured for this symbol's scope
Measured from the —-minute mark, next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekend).
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekend) up | down level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekend) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 1894.04 | 23.0% | 1874.42 | 23.5% | 682 |
| 0.5 | 1903.85 | 5.9% | 1864.61 | 5.4% | 682 |
Brackets
Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Ethereum
BTC & ETH
not yet measured
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 1937.14 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-07 | 1931.23 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | 1941.82 | 29.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-09 | 1943.53 | 29.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | 1934.55 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 1895.96 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 1905.10 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | 1901.63 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1907.24 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | 1901.71 | 29.8% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.
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