Chainlink (LINKUSDT)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 01:44 ET

last quote 11.43 · as of 01:50 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-26T05:44:49.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

FOXALGO / LINKUSDT CANDLESTICK

LIVEDATA: BINANCE · REALTIMELAST 11.433

LINKUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	11.59	61.0%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	11.27	63.0%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	11.75	34.0%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	11.11	35.5%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	11.91	18.3%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	10.95	19.1%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.2300

high 11.48 / low 11.25 · n=24 bars

position in today's range

79.6%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0030

open 11.44

Live hit rate — LINKUSDT

Live hit rate

96%

n = 70

95% confidence interval

88–99%

Wilson interval

All six markets

96%

n = 70

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

LINKUSDT minus the combined rate, in percentage points

506070809010015

Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 18Oct 21Oct 24

LINKUSDTAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	67	70	95.7%
A	0	0	—
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Chainlink

2 up, 3 down

As of 2026-10-26 01:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▲	11.44	11.41	11.38	0.8	92%	0
30m	▲	11.44	11.40	11.36	0.9	95%	0
1h	▼	11.48	11.39	11.30	1.8	72%	3
2h	▼	11.50	11.40	11.30	1.4	15%	1
4h	▼	11.66	11.45	11.24	2.0	21%	9

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

LINKUSDT: 90.7% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+2.4 pp) across 25,128 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / LINKUSDT INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	32.0%	31.1%	2,616
0.25	5.6%	4.9%	2,616
0.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekday).

FOXALGO / LINKUSDT INSTRUMENT 01

LINKUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekday)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) up	down level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekday) down	n
0.25	11.59	61.0%	11.27	63.0%	2,607
0.5	11.75	34.0%	11.11	35.5%	2,607
0.75	11.91	18.3%	10.95	19.1%	2,607

Brackets

Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Chainlink

alt L1s

MAE: 1.35 pp · n = 236,491,175

0-20%

predicted 7.1% · realized 7.0% · n = 133,371,361

20-40%

predicted 28.9% · realized 28.9% · n = 35,101,210

40-60%

predicted 50.9% · realized 51.0% · n = 30,469,730

60-80%

predicted 71.3% · realized 71.5% · n = 28,635,113

80-100%

predicted 82.0% · realized 82.4% · n = 8,913,761

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-15	12.74	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-16	12.78	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-17	12.64	32.1%	not touched ✗
2026-10-18	12.28	32.1%	not touched ✗
2026-10-19	12.35	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-20	12.36	40.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-21	12.65	40.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-22	12.80	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-23	12.24	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-24	12.13	32.1%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →