E-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:59 ET

last quote 27107.50 · as of 21:07 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-06T21:59:59.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / NQ CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 27107.5

NQ · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

Prior Day High/Low Prior Week High/Low Prior Month High/Low

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	27313.13	15.5%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	26901.88	15.9%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	27518.75	2.2%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	26696.25	2.4%	✓ touched
+0.75 ATR	27724.38	0.5%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	26490.63	0.5%	✓ touched
+1.00 ATR	27930.00	0.2%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	26285.00	0.1%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	28341.25	0.0%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	25873.75	0.0%	not touched yet

today's range so far

620.00

high 27425.00 / low 26805.00 · n=69 bars

position in today's range

48.8%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+88.00

open 27019.50

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — NQ

Live hit rate

93%

n = 516

95% confidence interval

91–95%

Wilson interval

All six markets

93%

n = 516

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

NQ minus the combined rate, in percentage points

506070809010074

Sep 04Sep 20Oct 01Oct 13Oct 26Nov 05

NQAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	478	512	93.4%
A	4	4	100.0%
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

E-mini Nasdaq 100

4 up, 1 down

As of 2026-11-06 17:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	27234.75	27120.13	27005.50	2.8	44%	17
30m	▲	27425.00	27231.38	27037.75	2.7	18%	14
1h	▲	27425.00	27231.38	27037.75	2.2	18%	7
2h	▲	27425.00	27231.38	27037.75	1.2	18%	4
4h	▲	27425.00	27231.38	27037.75	0.8	18%	2

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

NQ: 89.7% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.4 pp) across 71,752 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.754 → narrow (n = 11,559)

narrow < 0.847, typical < 1.335, else wide — based on a partial-session window (69 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / NQ INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	64.6%	59.5%	11,555
0.25	26.1%	25.8%	11,555
0.5	3.9%	7.3%	11,555

Measured from the 1020-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / NQ INSTRUMENT 01

NQ · P(touch by close)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	27313.13	15.5%	26901.88	15.9%	11,335
0.5	27518.75	2.2%	26696.25	2.4%	11,335
0.75	27724.38	0.5%	26490.63	0.5%	11,335
1	27930.00	0.2%	26285.00	0.1%	11,335
1.5	28341.25	0.0%	25873.75	0.0%	11,335

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 390 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	33.8%	62.5%	3.8%	9,954
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	45.3%	42.1%	12.7%	9,954
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	19.2%	48.5%	32.3%	9,954

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini Nasdaq 100

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%

predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676

20-40%

predicted 28.7% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116

40-60%

predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743

60-80%

predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767

80-100%

predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-23	29397.61	2.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-26	29546.45	2.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-27	29767.54	2.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-28	30108.97	2.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-29	30082.14	2.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-30	29488.46	2.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-02	28927.79	2.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-03	28558.00	2.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-04	28752.63	2.2%	touched ✓
2026-11-05	29033.46	2.2%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

date	level	predicted p	outcome	price at freeze	realized high/low
2026-11-06	+0.5 ATR → 27367.51	39.7%	touched	27088.5	27425 / 26988.5
2026-11-06	-0.5 ATR → 26809.49	40.6%	not touched	27088.5	27425 / 26988.5
2026-11-05	+0.5 ATR → 28522.07	39.7%	not touched	28269.25	27748 / 26718
2026-11-05	-0.5 ATR → 28016.43	40.6%	touched	28269.25	27748 / 26718
2026-11-04	+0.5 ATR → 28657.69	39.7%	touched	28404.5	28969 / 28474
2026-11-04	-0.5 ATR → 28151.31	40.6%	not touched	28404.5	28969 / 28474
2026-11-03	+0.5 ATR → 28553.12	39.7%	not touched	28287.25	28443.5 / 28237
2026-11-03	-0.5 ATR → 28021.38	40.6%	not touched	28287.25	28443.5 / 28237
2026-11-02	+0.5 ATR → 29001.40	39.7%	not touched	28755.75	28891.25 / 28101.75
2026-11-02	-0.5 ATR → 28510.10	40.6%	touched	28755.75	28891.25 / 28101.75
2026-10-30	+0.5 ATR → 29001.77	39.7%	touched	28799.25	29562 / 28232.75
2026-10-30	-0.5 ATR → 28596.73	40.6%	touched	28799.25	29562 / 28232.75
2026-10-29	+0.5 ATR → 29897.52	39.7%	not touched	29695	29677 / 29423.25
2026-10-29	-0.5 ATR → 29492.48	40.6%	touched	29695	29677 / 29423.25
2026-10-28	+0.5 ATR → 30132.02	39.7%	not touched	29917.5	30009 / 29767.25
2026-10-28	-0.5 ATR → 29702.98	40.6%	not touched	29917.5	30009 / 29767.25
2026-10-27	+0.5 ATR → 29773.93	39.7%	touched	29563.25	29881.25 / 29494.5
2026-10-27	-0.5 ATR → 29352.57	40.6%	not touched	29563.25	29881.25 / 29494.5
2026-10-26	+0.5 ATR → 29500.32	39.7%	touched	29298.5	29572 / 29172.25
2026-10-26	-0.5 ATR → 29096.68	40.6%	not touched	29298.5	29572 / 29172.25

See all verified findings →