Gold (GC)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 13:35 ET

last quote 4076.90 · as of 13:52 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-06T18:35:27.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / GC CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 4076.9

GC · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

Prior Day High/Low Prior Week High/Low Prior Month High/Low

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	4097.69	24.8%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	4056.11	26.4%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	4118.48	6.2%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	4035.32	7.7%	✓ touched
+0.75 ATR	4139.27	2.3%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	4014.53	3.1%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	4160.06	1.0%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	3993.74	1.3%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	4201.64	0.4%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	3952.16	0.5%	not touched yet

today's range so far

55.60

high 4090.70 / low 4035.10 · n=56 bars

position in today's range

75.2%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+23.10

open 4053.80

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 03

GC · Levels ahead of price

View as table

Level	Price	Distance	P(touch by 16:00 ET)	n
Prev day high	4145.30	68.40 pts / 1.49 ATR	beyond measured range	—
Overnight high	4116.20	39.30 pts / 0.86 ATR	4.9%	61,887
50% of prev day	4115.45	38.55 pts / 0.84 ATR	5.2%	61,887
Prev day close	4108.90	32.00 pts / 0.70 ATR	7.8%	61,887
18:00 ET open	4098.50	21.60 pts / 0.47 ATR	14.3%	61,887
Prev day low	4085.60	8.70 pts / 0.19 ATR	50.4%	61,887
09:30 ET open	4041.20	35.70 pts / 0.78 ATR	6.5%	61,887
Overnight low	4035.10	41.80 pts / 0.91 ATR	4.0%	61,887

Measured from the 13:30 ET checkpoint to the 16:00 ET close. Fixed distances only — 0.10 / 0.25 / 0.50 / 1.00 ATR; anything farther shows as "beyond measured range".

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — GC

Live hit rate

91%

n = 255

95% confidence interval

87–94%

Wilson interval

All six markets

91%

n = 255

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

GC minus the combined rate, in percentage points

506070809010036

Sep 08Sep 23Oct 08Oct 16Oct 28Nov 06

GCAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	230	253	90.9%
A	2	2	100.0%
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Gold

2 up, 3 down

As of 2026-11-06 13:15 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	4071.50	4067.05	4062.60	0.8	87%	2
30m	▲	4077.60	4071.45	4065.30	0.9	32%	2
1h	▼	4076.70	4055.90	4035.10	2.2	82%	4
2h	▲	4086.00	4068.50	4051.00	1.2	71%	4
4h	▼	4076.00	4060.25	4044.50	0.8	43%	2

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

GC: 90.5% actual vs. 88.2% stated (+2.3 pp) across 36,459 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.669 → narrow (n = 9,581)

narrow < 0.818, typical < 1.165, else wide — based on a partial-session window (56 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	66.7%	67.0%	9,527
0.25	34.6%	34.2%	9,527
0.5	9.7%	9.1%	9,527

Measured from the 810-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 01

GC · P(touch by close)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	4097.69	24.8%	4056.11	26.4%	9,420
0.5	4118.48	6.2%	4035.32	7.7%	9,420
0.75	4139.27	2.3%	4014.53	3.1%	9,420
1	4160.06	1.0%	3993.74	1.3%	9,420
1.5	4201.64	0.4%	3952.16	0.5%	9,420

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 240 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	32.8%	66.1%	1.2%	9,140
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	45.1%	49.4%	5.5%	9,140
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	21.8%	57.6%	20.6%	9,140

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Gold

metals futures

MAE: 0.82 pp · n = 48,462,204

0-20%

predicted 6.5% · realized 6.4% · n = 21,292,093

20-40%

predicted 28.8% · realized 29.3% · n = 9,418,069

40-60%

predicted 49.9% · realized 50.2% · n = 6,145,385

60-80%

predicted 71.5% · realized 71.6% · n = 6,425,146

80-100%

predicted 87.1% · realized 87.3% · n = 5,181,511

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-23	4077.33	6.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-26	4048.15	6.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-27	4067.73	6.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-28	4107.50	6.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-29	4115.93	6.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-30	4067.69	6.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-02	3927.47	6.2%	touched ✓
2026-11-03	3999.29	6.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-04	3978.84	6.2%	touched ✓
2026-11-05	4115.70	6.2%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

date	level	predicted p	outcome	price at freeze	realized high/low
2026-11-06	+0.5 ATR → 4074.31	38.4%	pending	4051.4	—
2026-11-06	-0.5 ATR → 4028.49	39.7%	pending	4051.4	—
2026-11-05	+0.5 ATR → 4156.67	38.4%	not touched	4134.1	4138.2001953125 / 4085.60009765625
2026-11-05	-0.5 ATR → 4111.53	39.7%	touched	4134.1	4138.2001953125 / 4085.60009765625
2026-11-04	+0.5 ATR → 4075.69	38.4%	touched	4053.5	4081.199951171875 / 4038
2026-11-04	-0.5 ATR → 4031.31	39.7%	not touched	4053.5	4081.199951171875 / 4038
2026-11-03	+0.5 ATR → 3986.58	38.4%	not touched	3964.3	3958.800048828125 / 3927.199951171875
2026-11-03	-0.5 ATR → 3942.02	39.7%	touched	3964.3	3958.800048828125 / 3927.199951171875
2026-11-02	+0.5 ATR → 3976.95	38.4%	touched	3954.3	3980.800048828125 / 3947.39990234375
2026-11-02	-0.5 ATR → 3931.65	39.7%	not touched	3954.3	3980.800048828125 / 3947.39990234375
2026-10-30	+0.5 ATR → 3975.13	38.4%	not touched	3955	3940.60009765625 / 3879.300048828125
2026-10-30	-0.5 ATR → 3934.87	39.7%	touched	3955	3940.60009765625 / 3879.300048828125
2026-10-29	+0.5 ATR → 4055.33	38.4%	not touched	4035.2	4049.800048828125 / 4016.300048828125
2026-10-29	-0.5 ATR → 4015.07	39.7%	not touched	4035.2	4049.800048828125 / 4016.300048828125
2026-10-28	+0.5 ATR → 4087.92	38.4%	touched	4068.2	4090 / 4036.89990234375
2026-10-28	-0.5 ATR → 4048.48	39.7%	touched	4068.2	4090 / 4036.89990234375
2026-10-27	+0.5 ATR → 4058.23	38.4%	touched	4038.5	4079.39990234375 / 4036.300048828125
2026-10-27	-0.5 ATR → 4018.77	39.7%	not touched	4038.5	4079.39990234375 / 4036.300048828125
2026-10-26	+0.5 ATR → 4050.64	38.4%	not touched	4030.9	4044 / 4002.300048828125
2026-10-26	-0.5 ATR → 4011.16	39.7%	touched	4030.9	4044 / 4002.300048828125

See all verified findings →