foxalgo.io

Gold (GC)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:59 ET

last quote 4680.60 · as of 01:49 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:59:58.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / GC CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 4680.6

GC · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR4702.1273.6%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR4659.0876.9%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR4723.6352.1%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR4637.5757.2%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR4745.1536.1%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR4616.0540.4%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR4766.6623.8%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR4594.5427.4%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR4809.7010.0%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR4551.5011.9%not touched yet
today's range so far
105.00
high 4690.40 / low 4585.40 · n=68 bars
position in today's range
90.7%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+89.10
open 4591.50

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 1.220 → typical (n = 9,581)

narrow < 1.101, typical < 1.570, else wide — based on a partial-session window (68 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.169.6%68.1%9,577
0.2536.0%35.8%9,577
0.511.0%11.6%9,577

Measured from the 990-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / GC INSTRUMENT 01

GC · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.254702.1273.6%4659.0876.9%9,580
0.54723.6352.1%4637.5757.2%9,580
0.754745.1536.1%4616.0540.4%9,580
14766.6623.8%4594.5427.4%9,580
1.54809.7010.0%4551.5011.9%9,580

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 0 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR33.0%66.4%0.6%9,071
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR47.9%48.1%4.0%9,071
1 ATR0.5 ATR23.8%59.3%16.9%9,071

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Gold

metals futures

MAE: 0.82 pp · n = 48,462,204

0-20%
predicted 6.5% · realized 6.4% · n = 21,292,093
20-40%
predicted 28.8% · realized 29.3% · n = 9,418,069
40-60%
predicted 49.9% · realized 50.2% · n = 6,145,385
60-80%
predicted 71.5% · realized 71.6% · n = 6,425,146
80-100%
predicted 87.1% · realized 87.3% · n = 5,181,511

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-08-074309.9452.1%touched ✓
2026-08-104373.0952.1%touched ✓
2026-08-114444.9652.1%not touched ✗
2026-08-124441.6452.1%not touched ✗
2026-08-134436.8852.1%touched ✓
2026-08-144358.1152.1%touched ✓
2026-08-174432.3052.1%not touched ✗
2026-08-184452.6852.1%not touched ✗
2026-08-194380.3152.1%touched ✓
2026-08-204551.1252.1%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-08-21+0.5 ATR → 4664.3638.4%touched4637.84690.39990234375 / 4633.7998046875
2026-08-21-0.5 ATR → 4611.2439.6%not touched4637.84690.39990234375 / 4633.7998046875
2026-08-20+0.5 ATR → 4558.0238.4%touched4532.84597.10009765625 / 4534.2998046875
2026-08-20-0.5 ATR → 4507.5839.6%not touched4532.84597.10009765625 / 4534.2998046875
2026-08-19+0.5 ATR → 4510.3438.4%touched4485.94569.60009765625 / 4502.39990234375
2026-08-19-0.5 ATR → 4461.4639.6%not touched4485.94569.60009765625 / 4502.39990234375
2026-08-18+0.5 ATR → 4471.8038.4%not touched4445.54463 / 4392.2998046875
2026-08-18-0.5 ATR → 4419.2039.6%touched4445.54463 / 4392.2998046875
2026-08-17+0.5 ATR → 4468.7738.4%touched4442.79980468754486.5 / 4440.89990234375
2026-08-17-0.5 ATR → 4416.8339.6%not touched4442.79980468754486.5 / 4440.89990234375
2026-08-14+0.5 ATR → 4467.7338.4%not touched4441.70019531254454.60009765625 / 4427.5
2026-08-14-0.5 ATR → 4415.6839.6%not touched4441.70019531254454.60009765625 / 4427.5
2026-08-13+0.5 ATR → 4467.4338.4%not touched4441.70019531254446.39990234375 / 4400
2026-08-13-0.5 ATR → 4415.9739.6%touched4441.70019531254446.39990234375 / 4400
2026-08-12+0.5 ATR → 4503.5538.4%not touched4478.399902343754499.7998046875 / 4455.89990234375
2026-08-12-0.5 ATR → 4453.2539.6%not touched4478.399902343754499.7998046875 / 4455.89990234375
2026-08-11+0.5 ATR → 4482.1338.4%not touched4457.20019531254463.2998046875 / 4419.7001953125
2026-08-11-0.5 ATR → 4432.2739.6%touched4457.20019531254463.2998046875 / 4419.7001953125
2026-08-10+0.5 ATR → 4418.3938.4%touched4394.70019531254453.7998046875 / 4375
2026-08-10-0.5 ATR → 4371.0139.6%not touched4394.70019531254453.7998046875 / 4375

See all verified findings →