Avalanche (AVAXUSDT)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 01:45 ET

last quote 7.6240 · as of 01:52 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-22T05:45:12.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

FOXALGO / AVAXUSDT CANDLESTICK

LIVEDATA: BINANCE · REALTIMELAST 7.624

AVAXUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	7.69	56.1%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	7.56	54.2%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	7.75	26.0%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	7.49	23.7%	✓ touched

today's range so far

1.2590

high 8.3130 / low 7.0540 · n=24 bars

position in today's range

45.3%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.2140

open 7.8380

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / AVAXUSDT INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	27.9%	22.9%	1,056
0.25	6.2%	3.5%	1,056
0.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekend).

FOXALGO / AVAXUSDT INSTRUMENT 01

AVAXUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekend)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekend) up	down level	P(touch within next 1440m, weekend) down	n
0.25	7.6894	56.1%	7.5586	54.2%	1,056
0.5	7.7548	26.0%	7.4932	23.7%	1,056

Brackets

Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Avalanche

alt L1s

MAE: 1.35 pp · n = 236,491,175

0-20%

predicted 7.1% · realized 7.0% · n = 133,371,361

20-40%

predicted 28.9% · realized 28.9% · n = 35,101,210

40-60%

predicted 50.9% · realized 51.0% · n = 30,469,730

60-80%

predicted 71.3% · realized 71.5% · n = 28,635,113

80-100%

predicted 82.0% · realized 82.4% · n = 8,913,761

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-11	6.5519	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	6.4430	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	6.4368	40.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-14	6.5731	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-15	6.5930	32.1%	touched ✓
2026-08-16	6.4618	32.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	6.4393	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-18	6.4579	40.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	6.4371	40.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-20	6.8874	40.2%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →