S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (SPY)

last quote 776.34 · as of 16:26 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-14T20:00:00.000Z)

Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

today's range so far

3.3699

high 778.80 / low 775.43 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

27.0%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-2.2000

open 778.54

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	60.0%	62.7%	1,861
0.25	20.5%	25.5%	1,861
0.5	4.4%	5.7%	1,861

Measured from the 330-minute mark, next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	778.46	12.8%	774.22	16.1%	1,861
0.5	780.58	1.2%	772.10	1.9%	1,861
0.75	782.70	0.3%	769.98	0.5%	1,861
1	784.82	0.1%	767.86	0.3%	1,861
1.5	789.05	0.0%	763.63	0.0%	1,861

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ETF

MAE: 1.09 pp · n = 7,475,484

0-20%

predicted 3.9% · realized 4.5% · n = 4,907,228

20-40%

predicted 29.3% · realized 29.8% · n = 843,064

40-60%

predicted 50.4% · realized 50.1% · n = 727,647

60-80%

predicted 70.5% · realized 70.7% · n = 757,861

80-100%

predicted 82.4% · realized 81.8% · n = 239,684

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-07-31	748.73	1.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-03	753.64	1.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-04	765.08	1.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-05	780.67	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-06	775.04	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-07	775.65	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-10	777.17	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-11	778.97	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	779.21	1.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	779.09	1.2%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →

Get S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and every tracked market, every morning, before the open.