AMD (AMD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 507.93 · as of 17:25 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-22T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / AMD CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 507.93

AMD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	514.85	7.1%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	501.01	7.5%	○ not touched
+0.50 ATR	521.76	0.6%	✓ touched
-0.50 ATR	494.10	0.6%	○ not touched
+0.75 ATR	528.68	0.0%	✓ touched
-0.75 ATR	487.18	0.1%	○ not touched
+1.00 ATR	535.60	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.00 ATR	480.26	0.0%	○ not touched
+1.50 ATR	549.43	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.50 ATR	466.43	0.0%	○ not touched

today's range so far

27.38

high 529.98 / low 502.60 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

19.5%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-15.69

open 523.62

Live hit rate — AMD

Live hit rate

79%

n = 28

95% confidence interval

60–90%

Wilson interval

All six markets

79%

n = 28

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

AMD minus the combined rate, in percentage points

50607080901007

Oct 19Oct 22

AMDAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	22	28	78.6%
A	0	0	—
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

AMD

0 up, 5 down

As of 2026-10-22 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	508.19	505.40	502.60	1.5	92%	1
30m	▼	514.02	510.59	507.15	1.4	9%	6
1h	▼	509.97	507.32	504.66	0.8	58%	1
2h	▼	512.77	508.71	504.66	0.8	38%	1
4h	▼	529.98	518.56	507.15	1.5	3%	1

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

AMD: 85.2% actual vs. 88.2% stated (-3.0 pp) across 28,662 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / AMD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	48.9%	59.9%	1,152
0.25	13.9%	18.3%	1,152
0.5	2.2%	1.8%	1,152

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / AMD INSTRUMENT 01

AMD · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	514.85	7.1%	501.01	7.5%	1,152
0.5	521.76	0.6%	494.10	0.6%	1,152
0.75	528.68	0.0%	487.18	0.1%	1,152
1	535.60	0.0%	480.26	0.0%	1,152
1.5	549.43	0.0%	466.43	0.0%	1,152

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for AMD

high-beta stocks

MAE: 1.04 pp · n = 5,164,560

0-20%

predicted 3.5% · realized 3.7% · n = 3,484,735

20-40%

predicted 29.6% · realized 29.1% · n = 551,828

40-60%

predicted 50.5% · realized 49.9% · n = 451,182

60-80%

predicted 70.6% · realized 69.8% · n = 527,136

80-100%

predicted 83.0% · realized 82.6% · n = 149,679

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-08	651.21	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-09	639.25	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-12	611.02	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-13	588.71	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-14	601.46	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-15	552.14	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-16	560.66	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-19	564.92	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-20	543.40	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-21	559.61	0.6%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →