foxalgoBitcoin (BTCUSDT)
last quote 75956.33 · as of 21:07 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-07T02:00:29.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
BTCUSDT · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 76536.15 | 53.4% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 75376.51 | 57.4% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 77115.97 | 24.5% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 74796.69 | 28.6% | not touched yet |
Live hit rate — BTCUSDT
By tier
| Tier | Hit | n | Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 79 | 87 | 90.8% |
| A | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| B | 0 | 0 | — |
Range state now
Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.
| TF | Direction | High | Mid | Low | Size (ATR) | Position | Age (bars) | Before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m | ▼ | 76153.70 | 75735.10 | 75316.50 | 8.3 | 70% | 42 | |
| 30m | ▼ | 76153.70 | 75727.15 | 75300.60 | 3.5 | 71% | 21 | |
| 1h | ▼ | 76153.70 | 75727.15 | 75300.60 | 2.0 | 70% | 10 | |
| 2h | ▼ | 79725.70 | 77643.05 | 75560.40 | 5.0 | 7% | 16 | |
| 4h | ▼ | 80389.70 | 77975.05 | 75560.40 | 4.0 | 6% | 8 |
See the range state of every market
Historical backfill, year by year
This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.
BTCUSDT: 91.5% actual vs. 88.2% stated (+3.4 pp) across 18,478 calls
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for crypto — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 17.5% | 26.9% | 674 |
| 0.25 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 674 |
| 0.5 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
Measured from the 120-minute mark (minutes since 00:00 UTC), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m, weekend).
BTCUSDT · P(touch within next 1440m, weekend)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekend) up | down level | P(touch within next 1440m, weekend) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 76536.15 | 53.4% | 75376.51 | 57.4% | 674 |
| 0.5 | 77115.97 | 24.5% | 74796.69 | 28.6% | 674 |
Brackets
Not measured for crypto — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Bitcoin
BTC & ETH
MAE: 1.70 pp · n = 117,041,556
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 81028.69 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-10-28 | 81780.76 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-29 | 82196.83 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-30 | 78752.53 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-10-31 | 78188.33 | 29.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-11-01 | 78414.47 | 29.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-11-02 | 79205.35 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-11-03 | 77660.90 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-11-04 | 78311.31 | 37.9% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-11-05 | 81484.24 | 37.9% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.