E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY)

no cached quote yet — the 15-minute cron hasn't populated KV for this symbol

Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.

today's range so far

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not yet cached

position in today's range

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0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

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What's happening now

Regime of the day

not yet measured — need today's cached high/low, ATR and width-bounds data

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	32.0%	34.0%	10,217
0.25	10.2%	10.7%	10,217
0.5	2.4%	2.6%	10,217

Measured from the 0-minute mark, next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	—	54.7%	—	56.0%	11,654
0.5	—	25.1%	—	28.9%	11,654
0.75	—	10.2%	—	14.8%	11,654
1	—	3.6%	—	7.1%	11,654
1.5	—	0.6%	—	1.5%	11,654

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 390 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	33.8%	62.5%	3.8%	9,954
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	45.3%	42.1%	12.7%	9,954
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	19.2%	48.5%	32.3%	9,954

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini Russell 2000

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%

predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676

20-40%

predicted 28.6% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116

40-60%

predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743

60-80%

predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767

80-100%

predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-07-31	2976.96	25.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-03	2974.28	25.1%	touched ✓
2026-08-04	3016.07	25.1%	touched ✓
2026-08-05	3073.99	25.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-06	3053.20	25.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-07	3032.87	25.1%	touched ✓
2026-08-10	3063.22	25.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-11	3048.31	25.1%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	3059.45	25.1%	touched ✓
2026-08-13	3078.83	25.1%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

No predictions recorded yet for RTY — this section fills in automatically starting the first trading day after launch. See scorecard for the site-wide schema.

See all verified findings →

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