Tesla (TSLA)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 358.22 · as of 21:07 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-06T21:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / TSLA CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 358.22

TSLA · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	362.63	7.1%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	353.81	7.5%	✓ touched
+0.50 ATR	367.03	0.6%	○ not touched
-0.50 ATR	349.41	0.6%	✓ touched
+0.75 ATR	371.44	0.0%	○ not touched
-0.75 ATR	345.00	0.1%	○ not touched
+1.00 ATR	375.85	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.00 ATR	340.59	0.0%	○ not touched
+1.50 ATR	384.66	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.50 ATR	331.78	0.0%	○ not touched

today's range so far

16.24

high 363.84 / low 347.60 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

65.4%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+9.3000

open 348.92

Live hit rate — TSLA

Live hit rate

84%

n = 51

95% confidence interval

72–92%

Wilson interval

All six markets

84%

n = 51

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

TSLA minus the combined rate, in percentage points

50607080901009

Oct 15Oct 16Oct 26Oct 27Nov 02Nov 05

TSLAAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	42	50	84.0%
A	1	1	100.0%
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Tesla

2 up, 3 down

As of 2026-11-06 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	360.87	359.38	357.89	1.5	11%	0
30m	▲	362.43	359.02	355.60	1.8	38%	11
1h	▲	362.43	355.01	347.60	2.1	72%	6
2h	▼	374.23	357.38	340.54	3.9	52%	7
4h	▼	374.23	356.19	338.15	3.4	56%	3

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

TSLA: 88.8% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.4 pp) across 19,671 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / TSLA INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	48.9%	59.9%	1,152
0.25	13.9%	18.3%	1,152
0.5	2.2%	1.8%	1,152

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / TSLA INSTRUMENT 01

TSLA · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	362.63	7.1%	353.81	7.5%	1,152
0.5	367.03	0.6%	349.41	0.6%	1,152
0.75	371.44	0.0%	345.00	0.1%	1,152
1	375.85	0.0%	340.59	0.0%	1,152
1.5	384.66	0.0%	331.78	0.0%	1,152

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Tesla

high-beta stocks

MAE: 1.04 pp · n = 5,164,560

0-20%

predicted 3.5% · realized 3.7% · n = 3,484,735

20-40%

predicted 29.6% · realized 29.1% · n = 551,828

40-60%

predicted 50.5% · realized 49.9% · n = 451,182

60-80%

predicted 70.6% · realized 69.8% · n = 527,136

80-100%

predicted 83.0% · realized 82.6% · n = 149,679

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-23	379.22	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-26	389.68	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-27	404.33	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-10-28	417.05	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-29	412.66	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-10-30	400.00	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-11-02	411.85	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-11-03	413.79	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-04	387.29	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-11-05	382.01	0.6%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →