Tesla (TSLA)

last quote 342.27 · as of 16:27 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-14T20:00:00.000Z)

Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

today's range so far

15.93

high 351.26 / low 335.33 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

43.6%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0600

open 342.33

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	48.9%	59.9%	1,152
0.25	13.9%	18.3%	1,152
0.5	2.2%	1.8%	1,152

Measured from the 330-minute mark, next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	345.01	7.1%	339.53	7.5%	1,152
0.5	347.75	0.6%	336.79	0.6%	1,152
0.75	350.49	0.0%	334.05	0.1%	1,152
1	353.24	0.0%	331.30	0.0%	1,152
1.5	358.72	0.0%	325.82	0.0%	1,152

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Tesla

high-beta stocks

MAE: 1.04 pp · n = 5,164,560

0-20%

predicted 3.5% · realized 3.6% · n = 3,484,735

20-40%

predicted 29.6% · realized 29.1% · n = 551,828

40-60%

predicted 50.5% · realized 49.9% · n = 451,182

60-80%

predicted 70.6% · realized 69.8% · n = 527,136

80-100%

predicted 83.0% · realized 82.6% · n = 149,679

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-07-31	317.72	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-08-03	318.88	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-08-04	332.16	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-08-05	331.33	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-08-06	324.85	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-08-07	329.92	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-08-10	334.07	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-08-11	339.96	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	342.14	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	332.69	0.6%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →

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