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Nvidia (NVDA)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 229.28 · as of 01:29 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / NVDA CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 229.28

NVDA · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR230.6268.1%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR227.9466.8%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR231.9641.8%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR226.6039.7%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR233.2923.7%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR225.2721.8%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR234.6311.9%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR223.9311.1%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR237.312.8%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR221.252.9%not touched yet
today's range so far
4.7800
high 233.89 / low 229.11 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
3.6%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
-4.5950
open 233.88

Live hit rate — NVDA

Live hit rate
100%
n = 12
95% confidence interval
76–100%
Wilson interval
All six markets
100%
n = 12
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
NVDA minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S1212100.0%
A00—
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Nvidia
0 up, 5 down
As of 2026-10-09 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▼230.18229.71229.251.88%16
30m▼230.19229.72229.250.77%8
1h▼230.19229.65229.110.719%4
2h▼230.04229.67229.310.41%1
4h▼230.04229.64229.240.310%0

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002006 stated: 88.0%2006 actual: 89.1% (+1.1 pp) -- n = 1,53320062007 stated: 88.6%2007 actual: 88.3% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 1,22820072008 stated: 88.6%2008 actual: 87.8% (-0.8 pp) -- n = 1,83720082009 stated: 88.5%2009 actual: 88.1% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 1,53520092010 stated: 88.1%2010 actual: 85.2% (-2.9 pp) -- n = 1,29420102011 stated: 88.0%2011 actual: 87.0% (-1.0 pp) -- n = 1,59720112012 stated: 88.2%2012 actual: 87.7% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 1,26020122013 stated: 88.1%2013 actual: 86.3% (-1.9 pp) -- n = 1,28220132014 stated: 87.8%2014 actual: 88.2% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 1,31520142015 stated: 87.9%2015 actual: 88.2% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 1,30020152016 stated: 87.8%2016 actual: 89.2% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 1,77220162017 stated: 87.8%2017 actual: 88.1% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 1,52520172018 stated: 88.2%2018 actual: 91.6% (+3.4 pp) -- n = 1,51220182019 stated: 88.5%2019 actual: 87.8% (-0.7 pp) -- n = 1,35620192020 stated: 88.5%2020 actual: 88.9% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 1,42720202021 stated: 88.4%2021 actual: 89.2% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 1,72620212022 stated: 88.5%2022 actual: 89.7% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 1,96620222023 stated: 88.4%2023 actual: 91.7% (+3.2 pp) -- n = 1,55220232024 stated: 88.6%2024 actual: 91.4% (+2.7 pp) -- n = 1,60920242025 stated: 89.1%2025 actual: 87.3% (-1.8 pp) -- n = 1,10720252026 stated: 89.1%2026 actual: 86.5% (-2.6 pp) -- n = 1,0392026

NVDA: 88.6% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+0.2 pp) across 30,772 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / NVDA INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.155.2%60.7%4,354
0.2517.5%22.1%4,354
0.52.9%3.4%4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / NVDA INSTRUMENT 01

NVDA · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25230.6268.1%227.9466.8%4,354
0.5231.9641.8%226.6039.7%4,354
0.75233.2923.7%225.2721.8%4,354
1234.6311.9%223.9311.1%4,354
1.5237.312.8%221.252.9%4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Nvidia

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%
predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483
20-40%
predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961
40-60%
predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144
60-80%
predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510
80-100%
predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-09-25227.8341.8%not touched ✗
2026-09-28232.3641.8%touched ✓
2026-09-29233.5641.8%not touched ✗
2026-09-30231.9741.8%touched ✓
2026-10-01232.6341.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-02238.7241.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-05238.6641.8%touched ✓
2026-10-06244.7941.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-07240.3741.8%not touched ✗
2026-10-08237.4941.8%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →