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Apple (AAPL)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 342.37 · as of 21:07 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-06T21:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / AAPL CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 342.37

AAPL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR344.609.8%✓ touched
-0.25 ATR340.1413.0%✓ touched
+0.50 ATR346.821.0%○ not touched
-0.50 ATR337.921.1%○ not touched
+0.75 ATR349.050.1%○ not touched
-0.75 ATR335.690.3%○ not touched
+1.00 ATR351.270.1%○ not touched
-1.00 ATR333.470.1%○ not touched
+1.50 ATR355.720.0%○ not touched
-1.50 ATR329.020.0%○ not touched
today's range so far
7.4900
high 345.79 / low 338.30 · n=27 bars
position in today's range
54.3%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+4.0700
open 338.30

Live hit rate — AAPL

Live hit rate
92%
n = 25
95% confidence interval
75–98%
Wilson interval
All six markets
92%
n = 25
Vs. all markets
+0.0 pp
AAPL minus the combined rate, in percentage points

collecting data

By tier

TierHitnHit %
S212391.3%
A22100.0%
B00—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

Apple
3 up, 2 down
As of 2026-11-06 16:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)
TFDirectionHighMidLowSize (ATR)PositionAge (bars)Before
15m▼343.63342.88342.131.616%0
30m▼344.25343.19342.131.011%0
1h▲353.88347.43340.994.411%20
2h▲354.33347.66340.993.010%11
4h▲354.47347.73340.992.610%5

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

50607080901002006 stated: 87.9%2006 actual: 89.9% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 1,27420062007 stated: 88.6%2007 actual: 91.4% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 1,33220072008 stated: 88.5%2008 actual: 90.0% (+1.5 pp) -- n = 1,30220082009 stated: 88.5%2009 actual: 86.9% (-1.6 pp) -- n = 1,81920092010 stated: 88.1%2010 actual: 91.1% (+3.0 pp) -- n = 1,57020102011 stated: 88.0%2011 actual: 88.6% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 1,78620112012 stated: 87.8%2012 actual: 89.5% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 1,84220122013 stated: 88.2%2013 actual: 87.7% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 1,68420132014 stated: 87.8%2014 actual: 91.2% (+3.3 pp) -- n = 1,64120142015 stated: 87.9%2015 actual: 89.9% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 1,53720152016 stated: 88.0%2016 actual: 90.7% (+2.7 pp) -- n = 1,37120162017 stated: 88.0%2017 actual: 89.3% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 1,30620172018 stated: 88.1%2018 actual: 90.1% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 1,66320182019 stated: 88.2%2019 actual: 89.3% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 1,81720192020 stated: 88.3%2020 actual: 88.3% (-0.0 pp) -- n = 1,62620202021 stated: 88.7%2021 actual: 89.9% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 1,46120212022 stated: 88.5%2022 actual: 87.5% (-1.0 pp) -- n = 2,07720222023 stated: 88.6%2023 actual: 88.5% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 1,72120232024 stated: 88.9%2024 actual: 88.5% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 1,31820242025 stated: 89.2%2025 actual: 90.5% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 1,00420252026 stated: 89.1%2026 actual: 93.7% (+4.7 pp) -- n = 1,0232026

AAPL: 89.5% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.2 pp) across 32,174 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / AAPL INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.155.2%60.7%4,354
0.2517.5%22.1%4,354
0.52.9%3.4%4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / AAPL INSTRUMENT 01

AAPL · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) updown levelP(touch by close 16:00 ET) downn
0.25344.609.8%340.1413.0%4,354
0.5346.821.0%337.921.1%4,354
0.75349.050.1%335.690.3%4,354
1351.270.1%333.470.1%4,354
1.5355.720.0%329.020.0%4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Apple

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%
predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483
20-40%
predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961
40-60%
predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144
60-80%
predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510
80-100%
predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-10-23352.161.0%not touched ✗
2026-10-26347.011.0%touched ✓
2026-10-27346.371.0%touched ✓
2026-10-28350.101.0%not touched ✗
2026-10-29351.111.0%touched ✓
2026-10-30349.751.0%not touched ✗
2026-11-02346.021.0%not touched ✗
2026-11-03328.981.0%touched ✓
2026-11-04345.221.0%touched ✓
2026-11-05358.131.0%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →