Scenario Finder

Pick a market, then check off what actually happened today — a gap up, Asia sweeping yesterday's high, and so on. We show every pre-verified finding that matches, with its measured rate against the base rate, sample size, and confidence interval. Nothing here is computed on the fly — every row already survived the research pipeline's multiple-comparisons verification (Bonferroni correction across sectors, correlated-cluster checks). See methodology for how that works.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Market

What happened today?

Pick one value per condition — or leave it at "not selected" to ignore it.

Matching findings

Select at least one condition above to see matching findings.

Filtering by condition needs JavaScript. Below: the top 20 findings by measured effect size for ES, unfiltered.

if / then	rate vs. base	delta	95% CI	n	badge
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	93.2% vs. 37.2%	+56.0 pp	[88.5%, 96.1%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84.1% vs. 32.5%	+51.5 pp	[77.5%, 89.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	84.1% vs. 32.5%	+51.5 pp	[77.5%, 89.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	85.3% vs. 34.8%	+50.5 pp	[79.0%, 90.0%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	84.7% vs. 34.8%	+49.8 pp	[78.7%, 89.3%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	81.9% vs. 32.5%	+49.3 pp	[75.6%, 86.9%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	86.3% vs. 37.2%	+49.0 pp	[80.5%, 90.5%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London trades below the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	85.3% vs. 37.2%	+48.0 pp	[79.3%, 89.8%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	79.3% vs. 32.5%	+46.7 pp	[72.4%, 84.8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90.0% vs. 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.8%, 93.0%]	266	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market breaks above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	90.3% vs. 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.7%, 93.5%]	224	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78.6% vs. 32.5%	+45.9 pp	[72.0%, 83.9%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market does not break above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	78.5% vs. 32.5%	+45.9 pp	[71.9%, 84.0%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	96.5% vs. 50.7%	+45.7 pp	[93.7%, 98.1%]	281	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80.5% vs. 34.8%	+45.6 pp	[73.8%, 85.8%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	80.2% vs. 34.8%	+45.3 pp	[73.8%, 85.4%]	181	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	95.5% vs. 50.7%	+44.6 pp	[92.5%, 97.3%]	304	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94.7% vs. 50.7%	+44.3 pp	[91.1%, 96.9%]	242	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the Asia session already traded below yesterday's low AND the rates sector average (ZB/ZN/ZF/ZT) opens higher vs. its prior session → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	— vs. 37.2%	+44.1 pp	—	193	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	94.0% vs. 50.7%	+43.5 pp	[90.1%, 96.4%]	227	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)

CI method: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held. Source: verified_findings.parquet;2026-08-18.