시나리오 찾기

시장 하나를 고른 다음 오늘 실제로 벌어진 것만 체크하라. 갭 상승, 아시아가 전일 고가를 훑는지 같은 항목이다. 일치하는 모든 사전 검증 결과를 보여주며, 기준 대비 실현율, 표본 수, 신뢰구간을 함께 표시한다. 여기의 각 행은 실시간 계산이 아니다. 연구 파이프라인의 다중비교 검증(부문 간 Bonferroni 보정과 상관 클러스터 점검)을 이미 통과했다. 자세한 방식은 방법론 을 보면 된다.

측정된 확률. 매매 신호 없음. 뜻은 →

시장

오늘 무슨 일이 있었나?

조건마다 값 하나를 고르거나, 무시하려면 "선택 안 됨"로 둔다.

일치하는 결과

모두 표시(77% 미만 포함)

일치하는 결과를 보려면 위에서 조건을 하나 이상 선택하라.

조건별 필터링에는 JavaScript가 필요합니다. 아래에는 ES의 측정 효과 크기 상위 20개 결과가 있습니다.

조건 / 결과	콜	등급	기준 대비 비율	변화	95% CI	n	배지
the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	YES 96.5%	S	96.5% 대 50.7%	+45.7 pp	[93.7%, 98.1%]	281	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET	NO 96.3%	S	3.7% 대 32.5%	-28.8 pp	[2.0%, 6.7%]	266	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	YES 95.5%	S	95.5% 대 50.7%	+44.6 pp	[92.5%, 97.3%]	304	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the opening range does not break to the downside by 10:30am AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 95.1%	S	5.0% 대 34.8%	-29.8 pp	[2.7%, 8.9%]	199	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	YES 94.7%	S	94.7% 대 50.7%	+44.3 pp	[91.1%, 96.9%]	242	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:30am open is far below the prior session's open → price trades below the Asia session's low sometime after 9:30am ET	YES 94.5%	S	94.5% 대 67.2%	+26.4 pp	[92.1%, 96.2%]	491	SKEPTIC-CONFIRMED
London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	YES 94.0%	S	94.0% 대 50.7%	+43.5 pp	[90.1%, 96.4%]	227	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 93.4%	S	6.6% 대 34.8%	-28.1 pp	[4.2%, 10.4%]	253	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET	YES 93.2%	S	93.2% 대 37.2%	+56.0 pp	[88.5%, 96.1%]	176	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 93.1%	S	7.0% 대 34.8%	-27.8 pp	[4.4%, 10.7%]	257	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the initial balance (first trading hour) is narrow (bottom tercile) AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 93.0%	S	7.0% 대 34.8%	-27.9 pp	[4.3%, 11.0%]	229	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	NO 93.0%	S	7.0% 대 43.6%	-36.7 pp	[4.0%, 12.1%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
London trades above the Asia session's high AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET	YES 92.4%	S	92.4% 대 50.7%	+41.9 pp	[88.7%, 95.0%]	285	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 91.7%	S	8.3% 대 46.9%	-38.7 pp	[4.9%, 13.7%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	NO 91.7%	S	8.3% 대 43.6%	-35.4 pp	[4.9%, 13.7%]	157	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the opening range breaks to the upside by 10:30am AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 91.5%	S	8.5% 대 34.8%	-26.3 pp	[5.8%, 12.2%]	293	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the market breaks above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	YES 90.3%	S	90.3% 대 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.7%, 93.5%]	224	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET	NO 90.2%	S	9.8% 대 46.9%	-37.2 pp	[6.1%, 15.3%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	NO 90.2%	S	9.8% 대 43.6%	-33.9 pp	[6.1%, 15.3%]	164	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)
the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET	YES 90.0%	S	90.0% 대 43.6%	+46.5 pp	[85.8%, 93.0%]	266	CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets)

54개의 추가 결과가 ES에서 표시 기준(|delta| < 8pp 또는 n < 120) 아래라 숨겨져 있습니다.

CI 방법: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held. 출처: verified_findings;2026-09-30.