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FX 터치 확률

주요 FX 페어, 중간가 터치(체결가 아님). 현재 체크포인트 기준 향후 15분 안의 터치 확률을 ATR 거리별로 보여줍니다.

측정된 확률. 매매 신호 없음. 뜻은 →

거리(ATR)상방 터치 확률하방 터치 확률n
0.15.9%5.4%8,521
0.250.4%0.3%8,521
0.50.1%0.1%8,521
0.750.0%0.0%8,521
10.0%0.0%8,521
1.50.0%0.0%8,521

알려진 공백: XAU (gold) is not yet measured for FX touch levels.

캘리브레이션: FX

어떤 레벨이 터치될 확률이 X%라고 했을 때, 실제로 얼마나 자주 터치되었을까요? 표본 외 결과를 구간별로 보여줍니다.

평균 오차
0.49 pp
측정된 검증 수
776.8M
776,797,176
표본 외 구간
2018-2026 (out-of-sample, futures/fx)
002525505075751001000-10%: predicted 2.4%, realized 2.4% (+0.0 pp) -- n = 410,478,45510-20%: predicted 14.7%, realized 15.2% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 85,032,16220-30%: predicted 24.5%, realized 25.3% (+0.8 pp) -- n = 46,212,28430-40%: predicted 35.0%, realized 35.6% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 48,007,24940-50%: predicted 45.2%, realized 46.3% (+1.1 pp) -- n = 27,125,94950-60%: predicted 55.3%, realized 56.2% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 38,443,92560-70%: predicted 64.0%, realized 64.9% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 42,457,28170-80%: predicted 75.8%, realized 76.4% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 36,150,46980-90%: predicted 83.5%, realized 83.9% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 42,889,402
예측실제
평균 오차
0.49 pp
측정된 검증 수
776.8M
776,797,176
표본 외 구간
2018-2026 (out-of-sample, futures/fx)
002525505075751001000-20%: predicted 4.5%, realized 4.6% (+0.1 pp) -- n = 495,510,61720-40%: predicted 29.9%, realized 30.6% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 94,219,53340-60%: predicted 51.1%, realized 52.1% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 65,569,87460-80%: predicted 69.4%, realized 70.2% (+0.8 pp) -- n = 78,607,75080-100%: predicted 83.5%, realized 83.9% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 42,889,402
예측실제
평균 오차
0.91 pp
측정된 검증 수
114.5M
114,544,524
표본 외 구간
2018-2026 (out-of-sample, futures/fx)
002525505075751001000-20%: predicted 4.6%, realized 4.5% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 73,969,01120-40%: predicted 29.8%, realized 30.1% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 13,646,60540-60%: predicted 51.7%, realized 52.3% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 8,847,07660-80%: predicted 68.4%, realized 68.3% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 10,912,82480-100%: predicted 84.1%, realized 83.3% (-0.8 pp) -- n = 7,169,008
예측실제

모델 자체 신뢰도 점검에서 나온 touch probability이며, 등급이 매겨진 트레이드 콜이 아닙니다 — 트레이드 콜은 live Scorecard에서 확인하세요.

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.