Scenario finder — crypto

시장 하나를 고른 다음 오늘 실제로 벌어진 것만 체크하라. 갭 상승, 아시아가 전일 고가를 훑는지 같은 항목이다. 일치하는 모든 사전 검증 결과를 보여주며, 기준 대비 실현율, 표본 수, 신뢰구간을 함께 표시한다. 여기의 각 행은 실시간 계산이 아니다. 연구 파이프라인의 다중비교 검증(부문 간 Bonferroni 보정과 상관 클러스터 점검)을 이미 통과했다. 자세한 방식은 방법론 을 보면 된다. Covers 6 pairs, pooled across weekday and weekend.

측정된 확률. 매매 신호 없음. 뜻은 →

시장

오늘 무슨 일이 있었나?

조건마다 값 하나를 고르거나, 무시하려면 "선택 안 됨"로 둔다.

일치하는 결과

Show all (incl. under 77%)

일치하는 결과를 보려면 위에서 조건을 하나 이상 선택하라.

조건별 필터링에는 JavaScript가 필요하다. 아래는 필터 없이 20개 상위 결과를 AVAXUSDT에 대해 측정 효과 크기 순으로 보여준다.

조건 / 결과	call	grade	기준 대비 비율	변화	95% CI	n
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97.5%	S	2.5% 대 10.7%	-8.2 pp	[1.3%, 4.8%]	322
it is Saturday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97.3%	S	2.7% 대 10.7%	-8.0 pp	[1.1%, 6.1%]	188
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94.0%	S	6.0% 대 36.8%	-30.7 pp	[4.1%, 8.8%]	399
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94.0%	S	6.0% 대 33.2%	-27.2 pp	[4.2%, 8.7%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 16:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 16:00 UTC	NO 91.0%	S	9.0% 대 34.8%	-25.7 pp	[6.7%, 12.1%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 16:00 UTC is below its low from before 16:00 UTC	NO 90.2%	S	9.8% 대 38.9%	-29.1 pp	[7.2%, 13.1%]	399
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 89.6%	S	10.4% 대 33.2%	-22.8 pp	[7.4%, 14.4%]	298
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 87.6%	S	12.4% 대 39.9%	-27.4 pp	[9.1%, 16.6%]	298
the volatility regime is low (ATR well below its 90-day median) → today's range is wider than its trailing 20-day median range	NO 86.3%	S	13.7% 대 32.5%	-18.8 pp	[10.9%, 17.1%]	482
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 86.0%	A	14.0% 대 33.2%	-19.2 pp	[9.7%, 19.9%]	178
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 85.8%	A	14.2% 대 36.8%	-22.5 pp	[10.8%, 18.5%]	316
price at 08:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 08:00 UTC is below its low from before 08:00 UTC	YES 83.1%	A	83.1% 대 62.6%	+20.6 pp	[77.7%, 87.4%]	225
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 82.6%	A	17.4% 대 42.8%	-25.4 pp	[13.6%, 22.0%]	316
today's range is the narrowest of the last 7 trading days (NR7) → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	YES 81.6%	A	81.6% 대 48.5%	+33.2 pp	[75.8%, 86.3%]	207
it is Monday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 81.0%	B	19.0% 대 10.7%	+8.4 pp	[14.1%, 25.2%]	189
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	NO 80.4%	B	19.6% 대 48.5%	-28.9 pp	[15.6%, 24.2%]	322
the market closed down yesterday → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.8%	B	20.2% 대 33.2%	-13.0 pp	[17.3%, 23.4%]	674
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.6%	B	20.4% 대 36.8%	-16.3 pp	[15.2%, 26.9%]	181
it is Saturday → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79.3%	B	20.7% 대 36.8%	-16.0 pp	[15.6%, 27.1%]	188
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 08:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 08:00 UTC	YES 79.1%	B	79.1% 대 60.7%	+18.4 pp	[74.3%, 83.2%]	316

520 more findings for AVAXUSDT are below the display threshold (|delta| < 8pp or n < 120) and are hidden.

CI 방법: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). 출처: crypto_conditional_tables.parquet;daypart=pooled;2026-09-02.