Scenario finder — crypto

Escolha um mercado e depois marque o que realmente aconteceu hoje — gap de alta, Ásia varrendo a máxima de ontem e assim por diante. Mostramos todo achado pré-verificado que corresponda, com sua taxa medida contra a taxa-base, tamanho da amostra e intervalo de confiança. Nada aqui é calculado na hora — cada linha já passou pela verificação de múltiplas comparações do pipeline de pesquisa (correção de Bonferroni entre setores, checagens de clusters correlacionados). Veja metodologia sobre como isso funciona. Covers 6 pairs, pooled across weekday and weekend.

Probabilidades medidas. Sem sinais de trade. o que isso significa →

Mercado

O que aconteceu hoje?

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Achados correspondentes

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Filtrar por condição exige JavaScript. Abaixo: os 20 principais achados por tamanho de efeito medido para AVAXUSDT, sem filtro.

se / então	call	grade	taxa vs. base	delta	IC 95%	n
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97,5%	S	2,5% vs. 10,7%	-8,2 pp	[1,3%, 4,8%]	322
it is Saturday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 97,3%	S	2,7% vs. 10,7%	-8,0 pp	[1,1%, 6,1%]	188
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94,0%	S	6,0% vs. 36,8%	-30,7 pp	[4,1%, 8,8%]	399
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 94,0%	S	6,0% vs. 33,2%	-27,2 pp	[4,2%, 8,7%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 16:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 16:00 UTC	NO 91,0%	S	9,0% vs. 34,8%	-25,7 pp	[6,7%, 12,1%]	431
price at 16:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 16:00 UTC is below its low from before 16:00 UTC	NO 90,2%	S	9,8% vs. 38,9%	-29,1 pp	[7,2%, 13,1%]	399
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 89,6%	S	10,4% vs. 33,2%	-22,8 pp	[7,4%, 14,4%]	298
price at 08:00 UTC is far below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 87,6%	S	12,4% vs. 39,9%	-27,4 pp	[9,1%, 16,6%]	298
the volatility regime is low (ATR well below its 90-day median) → today's range is wider than its trailing 20-day median range	NO 86,3%	S	13,7% vs. 32,5%	-18,8 pp	[10,9%, 17,1%]	482
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 86,0%	A	14,0% vs. 33,2%	-19,2 pp	[9,7%, 19,9%]	178
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 85,8%	A	14,2% vs. 36,8%	-22,5 pp	[10,8%, 18,5%]	316
price at 08:00 UTC is somewhat below the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's low after 08:00 UTC is below its low from before 08:00 UTC	YES 83,1%	A	83,1% vs. 62,6%	+20,6 pp	[77,7%, 87,4%]	225
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 08:00 UTC	NO 82,6%	A	17,4% vs. 42,8%	-25,4 pp	[13,6%, 22,0%]	316
today's range is the narrowest of the last 7 trading days (NR7) → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	YES 81,6%	A	81,6% vs. 48,5%	+33,2 pp	[75,8%, 86,3%]	207
it is Monday → the day makes both a new high beyond yesterday's high and a new low beyond yesterday's low (outside day)	NO 81,0%	B	19,0% vs. 10,7%	+8,4 pp	[14,1%, 25,2%]	189
yesterday's range was wide vs ATR → today's range is wider than yesterday's range	NO 80,4%	B	19,6% vs. 48,5%	-28,9 pp	[15,6%, 24,2%]	322
the market closed down yesterday → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,8%	B	20,2% vs. 33,2%	-13,0 pp	[17,3%, 23,4%]	674
price at 16:00 UTC is somewhat above the day's open (vs. ATR) → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,6%	B	20,4% vs. 36,8%	-16,3 pp	[15,2%, 26,9%]	181
it is Saturday → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 16:00 UTC	NO 79,3%	B	20,7% vs. 36,8%	-16,0 pp	[15,6%, 27,1%]	188
price at 08:00 UTC is far above the day's open (vs. ATR) → the day's high after 08:00 UTC exceeds its high from before 08:00 UTC	YES 79,1%	B	79,1% vs. 60,7%	+18,4 pp	[74,3%, 83,2%]	316

520 more findings for AVAXUSDT are below the display threshold (|delta| < 8pp or n < 120) and are hidden.

Método do CI: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). Fonte: crypto_conditional_tables.parquet;daypart=pooled;2026-09-02.