일간 확률 맵
스냅샷 20:46 ET세션 간 · ASIA 다음추적 중인 각 시장의 touch probability를 15분마다 갱신한다. 셀에 마우스를 올리면 세부 정보를 보고, 시장 행을 클릭하면 해당 드로어를 연다.
방향성 예측이 아닌 확률 맵. 뜻은 →
세션 기준점에서 ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR의 P(touch), 각 추적 futures 시장별.
Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET session open — the feed's available session-range window may not start at exactly that instant, see methodology.
| 시장 | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR | ±0.75 ATR | ±1 ATR | ±1.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini S&P 500최근 7703.00 | ↑53.9% ↓52.6% 54% 53% +1.4pp | ↑15.5% ↓15.9% 15% 16% -0.5pp | ↑2.2% ↓2.4% 2% 2% -0.3pp | ↑0.5% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.1pp | ↑0.2% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100최근 29391.25 | ↑53.9% ↓52.6% 54% 53% +1.4pp | ↑15.5% ↓15.9% 15% 16% -0.5pp | ↑2.2% ↓2.4% 2% 2% -0.3pp | ↑0.5% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.1pp | ↑0.2% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| E-mini Dow최근 52200.00 | ↑53.9% ↓52.6% 54% 53% +1.4pp | ↑15.5% ↓15.9% 15% 16% -0.5pp | ↑2.2% ↓2.4% 2% 2% -0.3pp | ↑0.5% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.1pp | ↑0.2% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| E-mini Russell 2000최근 2737.00 | ↑53.9% ↓52.6% 54% 53% +1.4pp | ↑15.5% ↓15.9% 15% 16% -0.5pp | ↑2.2% ↓2.4% 2% 2% -0.3pp | ↑0.5% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.1pp | ↑0.2% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| Gold최근 4186.70 | ↑29.9% ↓28.7% 30% 29% +1.3pp | ↑4.8% ↓4.2% 5% 4% +0.6pp | ↑0.5% ↓0.5% 0% 1% -0.0pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
| WTI Crude최근 99.04 | ↑17.3% ↓16.6% 17% 17% +0.7pp | ↑1.2% ↓1.4% 1% 1% -0.1pp | ↑0.2% ↓0.2% 0% 0% -0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
상승 방향 표시됨; 각 시장 드로어에는 전체 상승/하락 곡선이 있다.
E-mini S&P 500
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 53.9% | 52.6% | 11,335 |
| 0.25 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 11,335 |
| 0.5 | 2.2% | 2.4% | 11,335 |
| 0.75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 11,335 |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 11,335 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11,335 |
E-mini Nasdaq 100
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 53.9% | 52.6% | 11,335 |
| 0.25 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 11,335 |
| 0.5 | 2.2% | 2.4% | 11,335 |
| 0.75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 11,335 |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 11,335 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11,335 |
E-mini Dow
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 53.9% | 52.6% | 11,335 |
| 0.25 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 11,335 |
| 0.5 | 2.2% | 2.4% | 11,335 |
| 0.75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 11,335 |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 11,335 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11,335 |
E-mini Russell 2000
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 53.9% | 52.6% | 11,335 |
| 0.25 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 11,335 |
| 0.5 | 2.2% | 2.4% | 11,335 |
| 0.75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 11,335 |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 11,335 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11,335 |
Gold
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 29.9% | 28.7% | 9,223 |
| 0.25 | 4.8% | 4.2% | 9,223 |
| 0.5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 9,223 |
| 0.75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 9,223 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 9,223 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9,223 |
WTI Crude
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 17.3% | 16.6% | 8,910 |
| 0.25 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 8,910 |
| 0.5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 8,910 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,910 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,910 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,910 |
세션 기준점에서 ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR의 P(touch), 각 추적 stocks 시장별.
2020-2026의 과거 기간, 이 12개 종목은 사후 선택(ex-post, survivorship)되었습니다 — 보정은 무작위 종목이 아니라 이 종목들에 적용됩니다. 라이브 고정 스코어카드는 출시 시점부터 누적됩니다.
Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET RTH open, matching the feed's session window for exchange-listed equities.
알려진 공백: No first-hit grid exists for stocks — brackets.json and width_bounds.json have no stock coverage; not yet measured.
| 시장 | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR | ±0.75 ATR | ±1 ATR | ±1.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY)최근 763.25 | ↑49.4% ↓55.2% 49% 55% -5.8pp | ↑12.9% ↓16.1% 13% 16% -3.3pp | ↑1.2% ↓1.9% 1% 2% -0.7pp | ↑0.3% ↓0.5% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)최근 709.80 | ↑49.4% ↓55.2% 49% 55% -5.8pp | ↑12.9% ↓16.1% 13% 16% -3.3pp | ↑1.2% ↓1.9% 1% 2% -0.7pp | ↑0.3% ↓0.5% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)최근 270.44 | ↑49.4% ↓55.2% 49% 55% -5.8pp | ↑12.9% ↓16.1% 13% 16% -3.3pp | ↑1.2% ↓1.9% 1% 2% -0.7pp | ↑0.3% ↓0.5% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| Apple최근 343.46 | ↑45.5% ↓50.2% 46% 50% -4.7pp | ↑9.8% ↓13.0% 10% 13% -3.2pp | ↑1.0% ↓1.1% 1% 1% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
| Microsoft최근 529.05 | ↑45.5% ↓50.2% 46% 50% -4.7pp | ↑9.8% ↓13.0% 10% 13% -3.2pp | ↑1.0% ↓1.1% 1% 1% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
| Nvidia최근 214.13 | ↑45.5% ↓50.2% 46% 50% -4.7pp | ↑9.8% ↓13.0% 10% 13% -3.2pp | ↑1.0% ↓1.1% 1% 1% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
| Amazon최근 250.00 | ↑45.5% ↓50.2% 46% 50% -4.7pp | ↑9.8% ↓13.0% 10% 13% -3.2pp | ↑1.0% ↓1.1% 1% 1% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
| Alphabet (GOOGL)최근 340.59 | ↑45.5% ↓50.2% 46% 50% -4.7pp | ↑9.8% ↓13.0% 10% 13% -3.2pp | ↑1.0% ↓1.1% 1% 1% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
| Meta Platforms최근 709.33 | ↑45.5% ↓50.2% 46% 50% -4.7pp | ↑9.8% ↓13.0% 10% 13% -3.2pp | ↑1.0% ↓1.1% 1% 1% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.3% 0% 0% -0.2pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% -0.0pp |
| Tesla최근 354.72 | ↑38.8% ↓44.9% 39% 45% -6.1pp | ↑7.1% ↓7.5% 7% 8% -0.4pp | ↑0.6% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| AMD최근 528.75 | ↑38.8% ↓44.9% 39% 45% -6.1pp | ↑7.1% ↓7.5% 7% 8% -0.4pp | ↑0.6% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
| Netflix최근 70.53 | ↑38.8% ↓44.9% 39% 45% -6.1pp | ↑7.1% ↓7.5% 7% 8% -0.4pp | ↑0.6% ↓0.6% 1% 1% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.1% 0% 0% -0.1pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% 0% 0% +0.0pp |
상승 방향 표시됨; 각 시장 드로어에는 전체 상승/하락 곡선이 있다.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 49.4% | 55.2% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 12.9% | 16.1% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,861 |
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 49.4% | 55.2% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 12.9% | 16.1% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,861 |
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 49.4% | 55.2% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 12.9% | 16.1% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,861 |
Apple
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 9.8% | 13.0% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4,354 |
Microsoft
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 9.8% | 13.0% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4,354 |
Nvidia
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 9.8% | 13.0% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4,354 |
Amazon
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 9.8% | 13.0% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4,354 |
Alphabet (GOOGL)
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 9.8% | 13.0% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4,354 |
Meta Platforms
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 9.8% | 13.0% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4,354 |
Tesla
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 38.8% | 44.9% | 1,152 |
| 0.25 | 7.1% | 7.5% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1,152 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1,152 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,152 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,152 |
AMD
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 38.8% | 44.9% | 1,152 |
| 0.25 | 7.1% | 7.5% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1,152 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1,152 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,152 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,152 |
Netflix
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 38.8% | 44.9% | 1,152 |
| 0.25 | 7.1% | 7.5% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1,152 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1,152 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,152 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1,152 |
세션 기준점에서 ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR의 P(touch), 각 추적 fx 시장별.
Live touch/not-touched status isn't shown for FX: the data feed has no reliable 17:00 ET forex-day session open to anchor against, so we show probability only rather than guess.
알려진 공백: XAU (gold) is not yet measured for FX touch levels.
| 시장 | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR | ±0.75 ATR | ±1 ATR | ±1.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD최근 1.1244 | ↑5.9% ↓5.4% —6% —5% +0.5pp | ↑0.4% ↓0.3% —0% —0% +0.1pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp |
| GBP/USD최근 1.3330 | ↑5.9% ↓5.4% —6% —5% +0.5pp | ↑0.4% ↓0.3% —0% —0% +0.1pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp |
| USD/JPY최근 157.99 | ↑5.9% ↓5.4% —6% —5% +0.5pp | ↑0.4% ↓0.3% —0% —0% +0.1pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp |
| AUD/USD최근 0.6949 | ↑5.9% ↓5.4% —6% —5% +0.5pp | ↑0.4% ↓0.3% —0% —0% +0.1pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp |
| USD/CAD최근 1.4137 | ↑5.9% ↓5.4% —6% —5% +0.5pp | ↑0.4% ↓0.3% —0% —0% +0.1pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp |
| USD/CHF최근 0.8236 | ↑5.9% ↓5.4% —6% —5% +0.5pp | ↑0.4% ↓0.3% —0% —0% +0.1pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp |
| NZD/USD최근 0.5655 | ↑5.9% ↓5.4% —6% —5% +0.5pp | ↑0.4% ↓0.3% —0% —0% +0.1pp | ↑0.1% ↓0.1% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp | ↑0.0% ↓0.0% —0% —0% +0.0pp |
| Gold spot (XAU/USD) | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — |
상승 방향 표시됨; 각 시장 드로어에는 전체 상승/하락 곡선이 있다.
EUR/USD
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
GBP/USD
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
USD/JPY
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
AUD/USD
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
USD/CAD
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
USD/CHF
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
NZD/USD
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8,521 |
Gold spot (XAU/USD)
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | — |
| 0.25 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | — |
| 0.5 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | — |
| 0.75 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | — |
| 1 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | — |
| 1.5 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | 아직 측정 안 됨 | — |
세션 기준점에서 ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 ATR의 P(touch), 각 추적 crypto 시장별.
주말은 더 한산합니다 — 확률이 달라져서 주말 수치를 따로 표시합니다.
Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at 00:00 UTC (today's day type: weekend) — the feed's session-range window may not start exactly at that instant, see methodology. Weekends trade a measurably different, thinner regime, so weekday and weekend use separate probability curves.
알려진 공백: day_type=vse (pooled weekday+weekend) is not served — weekday and weekend are measurably different regimes, so the site must always pick the row matching today's UTC day type. Cells flagged rare in the source parquet (p<0.01 or p>0.99; 21.7% of all rows) are dropped entirely, not served — they render as 'not yet measured' the same as any other missing combo.
| 시장 | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin최근 81432.72 | ↑82.1% ↓84.4% 82% 84% -2.4pp | ↑56.5% ↓58.8% 57% 59% -2.2pp | ↑28.2% ↓27.9% 28% 28% +0.3pp |
| Ethereum최근 2417.11 | ↑82.1% ↓84.4% 82% 84% -2.4pp | ↑56.5% ↓58.8% 57% 59% -2.2pp | ↑28.2% ↓27.9% 28% 28% +0.3pp |
| Solana최근 104.12 | ↑83.3% ↓86.7% 83% 87% -3.4pp | ↑58.4% ↓59.8% 58% 60% -1.4pp | ↑29.9% ↓27.4% 30% 27% +2.6pp |
| Avalanche최근 9.9050 | ↑83.3% ↓86.7% 83% 87% -3.4pp | ↑58.4% ↓59.8% 58% 60% -1.4pp | ↑29.9% ↓27.4% 30% 27% +2.6pp |
| Chainlink최근 12.29 | ↑83.3% ↓86.7% 83% 87% -3.4pp | ↑58.4% ↓59.8% 58% 60% -1.4pp | ↑29.9% ↓27.4% 30% 27% +2.6pp |
| Dogecoin최근 0.0806 | ↑83.3% ↓86.7% 83% 87% -3.4pp | ↑58.4% ↓59.8% 58% 60% -1.4pp | ↑29.9% ↓27.4% 30% 27% +2.6pp |
상승 방향 표시됨; 각 시장 드로어에는 전체 상승/하락 곡선이 있다.
Bitcoin
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 82.1% | 84.4% | 674 |
| 0.25 | 56.5% | 58.8% | 674 |
| 0.5 | 28.2% | 27.9% | 674 |
Ethereum
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 82.1% | 84.4% | 674 |
| 0.25 | 56.5% | 58.8% | 674 |
| 0.5 | 28.2% | 27.9% | 674 |
Solana
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.3% | 86.7% | 1,046 |
| 0.25 | 58.4% | 59.8% | 1,046 |
| 0.5 | 29.9% | 27.4% | 1,046 |
Avalanche
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.3% | 86.7% | 1,046 |
| 0.25 | 58.4% | 59.8% | 1,046 |
| 0.5 | 29.9% | 27.4% | 1,046 |
Chainlink
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.3% | 86.7% | 1,046 |
| 0.25 | 58.4% | 59.8% | 1,046 |
| 0.5 | 29.9% | 27.4% | 1,046 |
Dogecoin
| 거리(ATR) | P(touch up) | P(하방 터치) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.3% | 86.7% | 1,046 |
| 0.25 | 58.4% | 59.8% | 1,046 |
| 0.5 | 29.9% | 27.4% | 1,046 |
읽는 법: 각 셀은 세션 앵커에서 기간이 끝나기 전 ±d ATR에 가격이 닿을 확률 P다. 위쪽 절반과 아래쪽 절반으로 나뉜다. Live status는 그 수준을 데이터 피드의 오늘 고가/저가와 비교한다. 체크 표시는 오늘 이미 발생, 맥박 점은 세션이 아직 진행 중이고 아직 미발생, 빈 원은 세션이 끝났지만 발생하지 않음이다. Asymmetry는 P(up)에서 P(down)을 뺀 값이며, 각 방향이 닿는 빈도의 편차를 퍼센트포인트로 보여줄 뿐 거래 신호는 아니다.
지수 선물, 주식 섹터 그룹(ETFs / mega-caps / high-beta), 암호화폐 그룹(BTC & ETH / alt L1s)은 각각 하나의 확률 표면을 공유한다. 같은 그룹 안에서 숫자가 같으면 설계상 그런 것이지 버그가 아니다.
E-mini S&P 500
실현 범위 / ATR(14) = 2.340 → 넓음 (n = 11,559)
E-mini Nasdaq 100
실현 범위 / ATR(14) = 2.901 → 넓음 (n = 11,559)
E-mini Dow
실현 범위 / ATR(14) = 1.619 → 넓음 (n = 11,559)
E-mini Russell 2000
실현 범위 / ATR(14) = 2.050 → 넓음 (n = 11,559)
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
일간 폭 레짐: SPY는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
일간 폭 레짐: QQQ는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
일간 폭 레짐: IWM는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Apple
일간 폭 레짐: AAPL는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Microsoft
일간 폭 레짐: MSFT는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Nvidia
일간 폭 레짐: NVDA는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Amazon
일간 폭 레짐: AMZN는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
일간 폭 레짐: GOOGL는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Meta Platforms
일간 폭 레짐: META는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Tesla
일간 폭 레짐: TSLA는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
AMD
일간 폭 레짐: AMD는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Netflix
일간 폭 레짐: NFLX는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Gold spot (XAU/USD)
오늘의 범위는 아직 데이터 피드에서 제공되지 않는다.
일간 폭 레짐: 오늘을 배치할 데이터가 아직 충분하지 않다.
Bitcoin
일간 폭 레짐: BTCUSDT는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Ethereum
일간 폭 레짐: ETHUSDT는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Solana
일간 폭 레짐: SOLUSDT는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Avalanche
일간 폭 레짐: AVAXUSDT는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Chainlink
일간 폭 레짐: LINKUSDT는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.
Dogecoin
일간 폭 레짐: DOGEUSDT는 아직 측정되지 않음 - 이 자산군에 width_bounds.json 적용 범위가 없다.