foxalgoEUR/USD (EURUSD)
last quote 1.1028 · as of 21:56 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-13T22:29:46.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
EURUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 1.10 | 0.4% | ✓ touched |
| -0.25 ATR | 1.10 | 0.3% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 1.11 | 0.1% | ✓ touched |
| -0.50 ATR | 1.10 | 0.1% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 1.11 | 0.0% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 1.10 | 0.0% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 1.11 | 0.0% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 1.09 | 0.0% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 1.12 | 0.0% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 1.09 | 0.0% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.622 → narrow (n = 13,287)
narrow < 1.148, typical < 1.649, else wide — based on a partial-session window (90 bars). See methodology.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 22.3% | 22.3% | 8,520 |
| 0.25 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 8,520 |
| 0.5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 8,520 |
Measured from the 1320-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 15m).
EURUSD · P(touch within next 15m)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 15m) up | down level | P(touch within next 15m) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 1.1049 | 0.4% | 1.1007 | 0.3% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 1.1069 | 0.1% | 1.0987 | 0.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 1.1090 | 0.0% | 1.0966 | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 1.1110 | 0.0% | 1.0946 | 0.0% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 1.1152 | 0.0% | 1.0904 | 0.0% | 8,521 |
Brackets
Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for EUR/USD
FX majors
MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 1.1214 | 0.1% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-11-01 | 1.1188 | 0.1% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-11-02 | 1.1225 | 0.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-11-03 | 1.1236 | 0.1% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-11-04 | 1.1268 | 0.1% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-11-05 | 1.1258 | 0.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | 1.1181 | 0.1% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-11-09 | 1.1256 | 0.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-11-10 | 1.1205 | 0.1% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-11-11 | 1.1135 | 0.1% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.