foxalgoEUR/USD (EURUSD)
last quote 1.1334 · as of 19:11 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-09-30T22:44:58.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
EURUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 1.13 | 66.3% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 1.13 | 65.6% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 1.14 | 39.7% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 1.13 | 38.7% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 1.14 | 21.9% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 1.13 | 21.6% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 1.14 | 10.9% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 1.13 | 11.8% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 1.14 | 2.8% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 1.13 | 3.0% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.992 → narrow (n = 13,287)
narrow < 1.153, typical < 1.655, else wide — based on a partial-session window (96 bars). See methodology.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 19.1% | 18.1% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 8,521 |
Measured from the 1380-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1320m).
EURUSD · P(touch within next 1320m)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 1320m) up | down level | P(touch within next 1320m) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 1.1348 | 66.3% | 1.1320 | 65.6% | 8,522 |
| 0.5 | 1.1362 | 39.7% | 1.1306 | 38.7% | 8,522 |
| 0.75 | 1.1376 | 21.9% | 1.1292 | 21.6% | 8,522 |
| 1 | 1.1390 | 11.0% | 1.1278 | 11.8% | 8,522 |
| 1.5 | 1.1418 | 2.8% | 1.1250 | 3.0% | 8,522 |
Brackets
Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for EUR/USD
FX majors
MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 1.1493 | 39.7% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 1.1500 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.1503 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-21 | 1.1488 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-22 | 1.1471 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-23 | 1.1408 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.1400 | 39.7% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-09-27 | 1.1405 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-28 | 1.1398 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-29 | 1.1368 | 39.7% | touched ✓ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.