WTI Crude (CL)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:59 ET

last quote 90.34 · as of 21:07 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-06T21:59:58.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / CL CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 90.34

CL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

Prior Day High/Low Prior Week High/Low Prior Month High/Low

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	91.65	1.2%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	89.03	1.4%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	92.96	0.1%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	87.72	0.2%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	94.26	0.0%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	86.42	0.0%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	95.57	0.0%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	85.11	0.0%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	98.19	0.0%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	82.49	0.0%	not touched yet

today's range so far

2.9300

high 92.00 / low 89.07 · n=69 bars

position in today's range

43.3%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-1.0200

open 91.36

Levels ahead of price

Key levels above and below the current price, with the measured probability of touching each one before the 16:00 ET close.

Market closed — levels as of last session.

Probability of touching, not of profit. Calibrated walk-forward (fit 2010–2017, checked on later years). See the full touch-odds ladder

Live hit rate — CL

Live hit rate

94%

n = 284

95% confidence interval

91–97%

Wilson interval

All six markets

94%

n = 284

Vs. all markets

+0.0 pp

CL minus the combined rate, in percentage points

506070809010031

Sep 08Sep 20Oct 06Oct 14Oct 27Nov 05

CLAll six markets (dashed)

By tier

Tier	Hit	n	Hit %
S	262	278	94.2%
A	6	6	100.0%
B	0	0	—

See all markets →

Range state now

Where this market's operating range stands on each timeframe. A description, not a call.

WTI Crude

2 up, 3 down

As of 2026-11-06 17:00 ET (last closed bar, feed delayed about 15 minutes)

TF	Direction	High	Mid	Low	Size (ATR)	Position	Age (bars)
15m	▼	90.50	90.40	90.29	0.6	24%	0
30m	▲	91.12	90.67	90.21	1.4	14%	5
1h	▲	91.16	90.69	90.21	1.0	14%	2
2h	▼	91.65	90.59	89.53	1.8	38%	7
4h	▼	91.65	90.36	89.07	1.3	49%	3

See the range state of every market

Historical backfill, year by year

This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record — see /record for every market.

CL: 89.5% actual vs. 88.1% stated (+1.4 pp) across 45,648 calls

See every market on /record →

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.560 → narrow (n = 9,316)

narrow < 0.855, typical < 1.179, else wide — based on a partial-session window (69 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	66.9%	68.1%	9,259
0.25	32.2%	34.8%	9,259
0.5	8.8%	9.5%	9,259

Measured from the 1020-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 01

CL · P(touch by close)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	91.65	1.2%	89.03	1.4%	8,910
0.5	92.96	0.2%	87.72	0.2%	8,910
0.75	94.26	0.0%	86.42	0.0%	8,910
1	95.57	0.0%	85.11	0.0%	8,910
1.5	98.19	0.0%	82.49	0.0%	8,910

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 390 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	30.6%	67.9%	1.4%	7,284
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	43.9%	47.5%	8.6%	7,284
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	18.7%	53.9%	27.4%	7,284

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for WTI Crude

energy futures

MAE: 1.01 pp · n = 48,788,856

0-20%

predicted 6.4% · realized 6.6% · n = 22,390,698

20-40%

predicted 28.8% · realized 28.8% · n = 8,103,563

40-60%

predicted 48.5% · realized 48.7% · n = 6,224,436

60-80%

predicted 71.4% · realized 71.4% · n = 6,944,629

80-100%

predicted 86.2% · realized 86.9% · n = 5,125,530

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-23	101.22	0.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-26	104.80	0.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-27	103.47	0.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-28	102.36	0.2%	touched ✓
2026-10-29	104.11	0.2%	not touched ✗
2026-10-30	104.99	0.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-02	104.52	0.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-03	98.63	0.2%	touched ✓
2026-11-04	99.25	0.2%	not touched ✗
2026-11-05	90.68	0.2%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

date	level	predicted p	outcome	price at freeze	realized high/low
2026-11-06	+0.5 ATR → 92.25	39.5%	not touched	90.85	91.18000030517578 / 89.55000305175781
2026-11-06	-0.5 ATR → 89.45	41.3%	not touched	90.85	91.18000030517578 / 89.55000305175781
2026-11-05	+0.5 ATR → 90.93	39.5%	touched	89.46	91.05000305175781 / 89
2026-11-05	-0.5 ATR → 87.99	41.3%	not touched	89.46	91.05000305175781 / 89
2026-11-04	+0.5 ATR → 94.66	39.5%	not touched	93.35	94.0999984741211 / 87.12999725341797
2026-11-04	-0.5 ATR → 92.04	41.3%	touched	93.35	94.0999984741211 / 87.12999725341797
2026-11-03	+0.5 ATR → 96.33	39.5%	touched	95.02	96.80000305175781 / 95.54000091552734
2026-11-03	-0.5 ATR → 93.71	41.3%	not touched	95.02	96.80000305175781 / 95.54000091552734
2026-11-02	+0.5 ATR → 99.11	39.5%	not touched	97.81	97.68000030517578 / 95.1500015258789
2026-11-02	-0.5 ATR → 96.51	41.3%	touched	97.81	97.68000030517578 / 95.1500015258789
2026-10-30	+0.5 ATR → 104.96	39.5%	touched	103.75	104.9800033569336 / 102.93000030517578
2026-10-30	-0.5 ATR → 102.54	41.3%	not touched	103.75	104.9800033569336 / 102.93000030517578
2026-10-29	+0.5 ATR → 102.05	39.5%	touched	100.84	102.9000015258789 / 99.79000091552734
2026-10-29	-0.5 ATR → 99.63	41.3%	not touched	100.84	102.9000015258789 / 99.79000091552734
2026-10-28	+0.5 ATR → 103.08	39.5%	touched	101.83	103.55000305175781 / 101.69999694824219
2026-10-28	-0.5 ATR → 100.58	41.3%	not touched	101.83	103.55000305175781 / 101.69999694824219
2026-10-27	+0.5 ATR → 102.65	39.5%	not touched	101.38	101.91999816894531 / 99.44000244140625
2026-10-27	-0.5 ATR → 100.11	41.3%	touched	101.38	101.91999816894531 / 99.44000244140625
2026-10-26	+0.5 ATR → 102.45	39.5%	touched	101.2	103.12999725341797 / 100.33000183105469
2026-10-26	-0.5 ATR → 99.95	41.3%	not touched	101.2	103.12999725341797 / 100.33000183105469

See all verified findings →