WTI Crude (CL)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:59 ET

last quote 87.06 · as of 01:48 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:59:59.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / CL CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 87.06

CL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

Prior Day High/Low Prior Week High/Low Prior Month High/Low

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	87.93	72.5%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	86.19	74.7%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	88.80	50.2%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	85.32	52.7%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	89.67	33.4%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	84.45	35.7%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	90.54	20.8%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	83.58	22.4%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	92.28	7.1%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	81.84	8.4%	not touched yet

today's range so far

1.7100

high 87.51 / low 85.80 · n=68 bars

position in today's range

73.7%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+0.5800

open 86.48

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.491 → narrow (n = 9,316)

narrow < 0.829, typical < 1.149, else wide — based on a partial-session window (68 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	69.7%	70.1%	9,270
0.25	38.0%	39.1%	9,270
0.5	12.6%	14.1%	9,270

Measured from the 990-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / CL INSTRUMENT 01

CL · P(touch by close)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close) up	down level	P(touch by close) down	n
0.25	87.93	72.5%	86.19	74.7%	9,084
0.5	88.80	50.2%	85.32	52.7%	9,084
0.75	89.67	33.4%	84.45	35.7%	9,084
1	90.54	20.8%	83.58	22.4%	9,084
1.5	92.28	7.1%	81.84	8.4%	9,084

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 0 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TP	SL	P(TP first)	P(SL first)	P(neither)	n
0.5 ATR	0.25 ATR	31.5%	67.4%	1.1%	7,948
0.5 ATR	0.5 ATR	45.5%	47.4%	7.1%	7,948
1 ATR	0.5 ATR	19.8%	54.8%	25.4%	7,948

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for WTI Crude

energy futures

MAE: 1.01 pp · n = 48,788,856

0-20%

predicted 6.4% · realized 6.6% · n = 22,390,698

20-40%

predicted 28.8% · realized 28.8% · n = 8,103,563

40-60%

predicted 48.5% · realized 48.7% · n = 6,224,436

60-80%

predicted 71.4% · realized 71.4% · n = 6,944,629

80-100%

predicted 86.2% · realized 86.9% · n = 5,125,530

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-07	80.75	50.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-10	80.89	50.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-11	84.86	50.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	85.97	50.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	85.01	50.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-14	83.51	50.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	84.58	50.2%	touched ✓
2026-08-18	86.98	50.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	87.25	50.2%	not touched ✗
2026-08-20	87.63	50.2%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

date	level	predicted p	outcome	price at freeze	realized high/low
2026-08-21	+0.5 ATR → 87.67	39.5%	not touched	86.68	87.45999908447266 / 86.13999938964844
2026-08-21	-0.5 ATR → 85.69	41.3%	not touched	86.68	87.45999908447266 / 86.13999938964844
2026-08-20	+0.5 ATR → 87.74	39.5%	not touched	86.73	86.9800033569336 / 85.69000244140625
2026-08-20	-0.5 ATR → 85.72	41.3%	touched	86.73	86.9800033569336 / 85.69000244140625
2026-08-19	+0.5 ATR → 85.27	39.5%	touched	84.27	85.83999633789062 / 83.93000030517578
2026-08-19	-0.5 ATR → 83.27	41.3%	not touched	84.27	85.83999633789062 / 83.93000030517578
2026-08-18	+0.5 ATR → 85.73	39.5%	not touched	84.72000122070312	85.06999969482422 / 83.77999877929688
2026-08-18	-0.5 ATR → 83.71	41.3%	not touched	84.72000122070312	85.06999969482422 / 83.77999877929688
2026-08-17	+0.5 ATR → 83.82	39.5%	touched	82.7699966430664	84.87999725341797 / 82.0999984741211
2026-08-17	-0.5 ATR → 81.72	41.3%	not touched	82.7699966430664	84.87999725341797 / 82.0999984741211
2026-08-14	+0.5 ATR → 82.37	39.5%	touched	81.29000091552734	82.66999816894531 / 80.76000213623047
2026-08-14	-0.5 ATR → 80.21	41.3%	not touched	81.29000091552734	82.66999816894531 / 80.76000213623047
2026-08-13	+0.5 ATR → 82.12	39.5%	touched	81.04000091552734	82.7300033569336 / 80.08999633789062
2026-08-13	-0.5 ATR → 79.96	41.3%	not touched	81.04000091552734	82.7300033569336 / 80.08999633789062
2026-08-12	+0.5 ATR → 84.04	39.5%	not touched	82.9000015258789	83.45999908447266 / 82.4000015258789
2026-08-12	-0.5 ATR → 81.76	41.3%	not touched	82.9000015258789	83.45999908447266 / 82.4000015258789
2026-08-11	+0.5 ATR → 82.65	39.5%	touched	81.54000091552734	83.62000274658203 / 81.2699966430664
2026-08-11	-0.5 ATR → 80.43	41.3%	not touched	81.54000091552734	83.62000274658203 / 81.2699966430664
2026-08-10	+0.5 ATR → 80.75	39.5%	touched	79.68000030517578	82.31999969482422 / 79.62000274658203
2026-08-10	-0.5 ATR → 78.61	41.3%	not touched	79.68000030517578	82.31999969482422 / 79.62000274658203

See all verified findings →