ES roadmap

Held era only (٢٬٢٢٨ sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

احتمالات محسوبة. لا توجد توصيات تداول. ما يعنيه هذا →

Current price: ٧٦٤٥٫٢٥ · ATR14: ٤٢٫٥٩ · 09:30 open: ٧٦٩٦٫٥٠

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
٠٫٠٥	up	٧٦٩٨٫٦٣	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩١٫٥%	٢٬٢٢٢	NEAR BAND
٠٫٠٥	down	٧٦٩٤٫٣٧	٢٫١٢٩٥	٨٩٫١%	٢٬٢٢٢	NEAR BAND
٠٫١٠	up	٧٧٠٠٫٧٦	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨١٫٩%	٢٬٢٢٢	LIKELY
٠٫١٠	down	٧٦٩٢٫٢٤	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٧٨٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٢	LIKELY
٠٫١٥	up	٧٧٠٢٫٨٩	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٧٣٫٤%	٢٬٢٢٢	LIKELY
٠٫١٥	down	٧٦٩٠٫١١	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٧٠٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٢	LIKELY
٠٫٢٠	up	٧٧٠٥٫٠٢	٨٫٥١٧٩	٦٤٫٣%	٢٬٢٢٢	COIN FLIP
٠٫٢٠	down	٧٦٨٧٫٩٨	٨٫٥١٧٩	٦٢٫٥%	٢٬٢٢٢	COIN FLIP
٠٫٢٥	up	٧٧٠٧٫١٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٧٫٠%	٢٬٢٢٢	COIN FLIP
٠٫٢٥	down	٧٦٨٥٫٨٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٥٫٩%	٢٬٢٢٢	COIN FLIP
٠٫٣٠	up	٧٧٠٩٫٢٨	١٢٫٧٨	٥٠٫٨%	٢٬٢٢٢	COIN FLIP
٠٫٣٠	down	٧٦٨٣٫٧٢	١٢٫٧٨	٤٩٫٥%	٢٬٢٢٢	COIN FLIP
٠٫٤٠	up	٧٧١٣٫٥٤	١٧٫٠٤	٣٩٫٠%	٢٬٢٢٢	STRETCH
٠٫٤٠	down	٧٦٧٩٫٤٦	١٧٫٠٤	٣٨٫٤%	٢٬٢٢٢	STRETCH
٠٫٥٠	up	٧٧١٧٫٧٩	٢١٫٢٩	٢٨٫٥%	٢٬٢٢٢	STRETCH
٠٫٥٠	down	٧٦٧٥٫٢١	٢١٫٢٩	٣٠٫٥%	٢٬٢٢٢	STRETCH
٠٫٧٥	up	٧٧٢٨٫٤٤	٣١٫٩٤	١١٫٧%	٢٬٢٢٢	LONG SHOT
٠٫٧٥	down	٧٦٦٤٫٥٦	٣١٫٩٤	١٧٫٤%	٢٬٢٢٢	LONG SHOT
١٫٠٠	up	٧٧٣٩٫٠٩	٤٢٫٥٩	٤٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٢	LONG SHOT
١٫٠٠	down	٧٦٥٣٫٩١	٤٢٫٥٩	٩٫٥%	٢٬٢٢٢	LONG SHOT
١٫٥٠	up	٧٧٦٠٫٣٨	٦٣٫٨٨	٠٫٨%	٢٬٢٢٢	LONG SHOT
١٫٥٠	down	٧٦٣٢٫٦٢	٦٣٫٨٨	٣٫١%	٢٬٢٢٢	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
٠٫٠٥	up	—	—	٩٠٫٩%	٢٬٢٢٧	NEAR BAND
٠٫٠٥	down	—	—	٩٠٫٣%	٢٬٢٢٧	NEAR BAND
٠٫١٠	up	—	—	٨٢٫٧%	٢٬٢٢٧	LIKELY
٠٫١٠	down	—	—	٨٠٫٩%	٢٬٢٢٧	LIKELY
٠٫١٥	up	—	—	٧٤٫٠%	٢٬٢٢٧	LIKELY
٠٫١٥	down	—	—	٧١٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٧	LIKELY
٠٫٢٠	up	—	—	٦٥٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٧	COIN FLIP
٠٫٢٠	down	—	—	٦٣٫٢%	٢٬٢٢٧	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
٠٫٢٥	up	—	—	٥٧٫٨%	٢٬٢٢٧	COIN FLIP
٠٫٢٥	down	—	—	٥٦٫٧%	٢٬٢٢٧	COIN FLIP
٠٫٣٠	up	—	—	٥١٫٢%	٢٬٢٢٧	COIN FLIP
٠٫٣٠	down	—	—	٥٠٫٤%	٢٬٢٢٧	COIN FLIP
٠٫٤٠	up	—	—	٣٩٫٩%	٢٬٢٢٧	STRETCH
٠٫٤٠	down	—	—	٣٩٫٧%	٢٬٢٢٧	STRETCH
٠٫٥٠	up	—	—	٢٩٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٧	STRETCH
٠٫٥٠	down	—	—	٣١٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٧	STRETCH
٠٫٧٥	up	—	—	١٢٫٤%	٢٬٢٢٧	LONG SHOT
٠٫٧٥	down	—	—	١٨٫٤%	٢٬٢٢٧	LONG SHOT
١٫٠٠	up	—	—	٥٫١%	٢٬٢٢٧	LONG SHOT
١٫٠٠	down	—	—	١٠٫٠%	٢٬٢٢٧	LONG SHOT
١٫٥٠	up	—	—	١٫٠%	٢٬٢٢٧	LONG SHOT
١٫٥٠	down	—	—	٣٫٦%	٢٬٢٢٧	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	٢٬٢٢٧	٠٫٢٥	٠٫٢٩	٠٫٣٧	٠٫٥١	٠٫٧١	٠٫٩٥	١٫١٤	١٫٧٣
0930	٢٬٢٢٧	٠٫٢٦	٠٫٣٠	٠٫٣٩	٠٫٥٤	٠٫٧٤	١٫٠٠	١٫٢١	١٫٨٦
1030	٢٬٢٢٧	٠٫٣١	٠٫٣٧	٠٫٤٧	٠٫٦٥	٠٫٩٠	١٫٢١	١٫٤٤	٢٫٠٩

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	٥٠٫٨%	٩٢١	moved since 2018
0.5-0.85	٥٢٫٠%	٨٦١
0.85-1.05	٥٠٫٣%	١٨٣
1.05-1.25	٤٢٫٢%	٨٣
>1.25	٤٦٫٤%	٩٧

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
٠٫٠٥	up	٧٦٩٨٫٦٣	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٥٫٧%	٢٥٨	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	up	٧٧٠٠٫٧٦	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨١٫٣%	١٣٤	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	up	٧٧٠٢٫٨٩	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٧٣٫١%	١١٩	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	up	٧٧٠٥٫٠٢	٨٫٥١٧٩	٦٦٫٣%	٨٩	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	up	٧٧٠٧٫١٥	١٠٫٦٥	٦٠٫٠%	٧٠	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	up	٧٧٠٩٫٢٨	١٢٫٧٨	٦٢٫٢%	٩٠	PULLS
٠٫٤٠	up	٧٧١٣٫٥٤	١٧٫٠٤	٤٢٫٣%	٧٨	PULLS
٠٫٥٠	up	٧٧١٧٫٧٩	٢١٫٢٩	٣٨٫٧%	٩٣	PULLS
٠٫٧٥	up	٧٧٢٨٫٤٤	٣١٫٩٤	٢٦٫٣%	٥٧	PULLS
١٫٠٠	up	٧٧٣٩٫٠٩	٤٢٫٥٩	٠٫٠%	١٧	SCENERY
١٫٥٠	up	٧٧٦٠٫٣٨	٦٣٫٨٨	٠٫٠%	٩	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
٠٫٠٥	down	٧٦٩٤٫٣٧	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٠٫٨%	٢٣٩	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	down	٧٦٩٢٫٢٤	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٧٧٫٩%	١٦٣	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	down	٧٦٩٠٫١١	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٦٥٫٩%	١٧٣	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	down	٧٦٨٧٫٩٨	٨٫٥١٧٩	٥٦٫٢%	١٣٧	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	down	٧٦٨٥٫٨٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٦٫٢%	١٢١	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	down	٧٦٨٣٫٧٢	١٢٫٧٨	٥٥٫٢%	١١٦	SCENERY
٠٫٤٠	down	٧٦٧٩٫٤٦	١٧٫٠٤	٣٩٫٣%	١١٧	SCENERY
٠٫٥٠	down	٧٦٧٥٫٢١	٢١٫٢٩	٤١٫٧%	٨٤	PULLS
٠٫٧٥	down	٧٦٦٤٫٥٦	٣١٫٩٤	٢٦٫٢%	٤٢	SCENERY
١٫٠٠	down	٧٦٥٣٫٩١	٤٢٫٥٩	٨٫٣%	١٢	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
١٫٥٠	down	٧٦٣٢٫٦٢	٦٣٫٨٨	٠٫٠%	٢	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
٠٫٠٥	up	٧٦٩٨٫٦٣	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٣٫٩%	١٦٤	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	up	٧٧٠٠٫٧٦	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨٢٫٣%	١١٣	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	up	٧٧٠٢٫٨٩	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٥٨٫٩%	٩٠	REPELS
٠٫٢٠	up	٧٧٠٥٫٠٢	٨٫٥١٧٩	٥٧٫٧%	٩٧	REPELS
٠٫٢٥	up	٧٧٠٧٫١٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٦٫٥%	١٠٨	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	up	٧٧٠٩٫٢٨	١٢٫٧٨	٤٩٫٣%	١٣٤	SCENERY
٠٫٤٠	up	٧٧١٣٫٥٤	١٧٫٠٤	٤٣٫٢%	١٧٦	SCENERY	moved since 2018
٠٫٥٠	up	٧٧١٧٫٧٩	٢١٫٢٩	٢٧٫٢%	٢٣٥	SCENERY
٠٫٧٥	up	٧٧٢٨٫٤٤	٣١٫٩٤	١٣٫٧%	١٩٠	SCENERY
١٫٠٠	up	٧٧٣٩٫٠٩	٤٢٫٥٩	٨٫٤%	١٧٨	SCENERY
١٫٥٠	up	٧٧٦٠٫٣٨	٦٣٫٨٨	٢٫٢%	٩٢	SCENERY
٠٫٠٥	down	٧٦٩٤٫٣٧	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٢٫٧%	١٣٧	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	down	٧٦٩٢٫٢٤	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٧٦٫٦%	٧٧	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	down	٧٦٩٠٫١١	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٦٥٫٤%	٨١	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	down	٧٦٨٧٫٩٨	٨٫٥١٧٩	٦٧٫٨%	٥٩	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	down	٧٦٨٥٫٨٥	١٠٫٦٥	٤٨٫٨%	٤١	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	down	٧٦٨٣٫٧٢	١٢٫٧٨	٥١٫٨%	٥٦	SCENERY
٠٫٤٠	down	٧٦٧٩٫٤٦	١٧٫٠٤	٤١٫٧%	٦٠	SCENERY
٠٫٥٠	down	٧٦٧٥٫٢١	٢١٫٢٩	٣٤٫٢%	٣٨	SCENERY	moved since 2018
٠٫٧٥	down	٧٦٦٤٫٥٦	٣١٫٩٤	٢٠٫٠%	٢٠	SCENERY
١٫٠٠	down	٧٦٥٣٫٩١	٤٢٫٥٩	١٢٫٥%	٨	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
١٫٥٠	down	٧٦٣٢٫٦٢	٦٣٫٨٨	١٤٫٣%	٧	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
٠٫٠٥	up	٧٦٩٨٫٦٣	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٢٫٩%	٧٠	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	up	٧٧٠٠٫٧٦	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨٧٫٢%	٣٩	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	up	٧٧٠٢٫٨٩	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٨٨٫١%	٤٢	PULLS
٠٫٢٠	up	٧٧٠٥٫٠٢	٨٫٥١٧٩	٥٨٫١%	٣١	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	up	٧٧٠٧٫١٥	١٠٫٦٥	٦٠٫٩%	٢٣	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	up	٧٧٠٩٫٢٨	١٢٫٧٨	٥٥٫٢%	٢٩	SCENERY
٠٫٤٠	up	٧٧١٣٫٥٤	١٧٫٠٤	٤٧٫٥%	٤٠	SCENERY
٠٫٥٠	up	٧٧١٧٫٧٩	٢١٫٢٩	٦٠٫٠%	٢٥	PULLS
٠٫٧٥	up	٧٧٢٨٫٤٤	٣١٫٩٤	٣٣٫٣%	٣٣	PULLS
١٫٠٠	up	٧٧٣٩٫٠٩	٤٢٫٥٩	٧٫١%	١٤	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
١٫٥٠	up	٧٧٦٠٫٣٨	٦٣٫٨٨	٢٠٫٠%	١٠	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
٠٫٠٥	down	٧٦٩٤٫٣٧	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٣٫١%	١٠١	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	down	٧٦٩٢٫٢٤	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٧٨٫٦%	٧٠	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	down	٧٦٩٠٫١١	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٧٧٫٦%	٧٦	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	down	٧٦٨٧٫٩٨	٨٫٥١٧٩	٦٧٫١%	٧٦	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	down	٧٦٨٥٫٨٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٣٫١%	٩٨	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	down	٧٦٨٣٫٧٢	١٢٫٧٨	٤١٫٦%	١٤٩	REPELS
٠٫٤٠	down	٧٦٧٩٫٤٦	١٧٫٠٤	٣٥٫٢%	١٦٢	REPELS
٠٫٥٠	down	٧٦٧٥٫٢١	٢١٫٢٩	٢٥٫٤%	٣٥٤	REPELS
٠٫٧٥	down	٧٦٦٤٫٥٦	٣١٫٩٤	١٧٫١%	٣٥٧	SCENERY
١٫٠٠	down	٧٦٥٣٫٩١	٤٢٫٥٩	٩٫٤%	٢٦٦	SCENERY
١٫٥٠	down	٧٦٣٢٫٦٢	٦٣٫٨٨	٩٫٤%	١١٧	SCENERY	moved since 2018

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
٠٫٠٥	up	٧٦٩٨٫٦٣	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٥٫٢%	١٤٧	PULLS	moved since 2018
٠٫١٠	up	٧٧٠٠٫٧٦	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٧٩٫٠%	٨١	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	up	٧٧٠٢٫٨٩	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٧٥٫٨%	٩١	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	up	٧٧٠٥٫٠٢	٨٫٥١٧٩	٦٩٫٢%	٦٥	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	up	٧٧٠٧٫١٥	١٠٫٦٥	٦٦٫١%	٦٥	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	up	٧٧٠٩٫٢٨	١٢٫٧٨	٦٨٫٠%	٧٨	PULLS
٠٫٤٠	up	٧٧١٣٫٥٤	١٧٫٠٤	٣٩٫٥%	٨٦	SCENERY
٠٫٥٠	up	٧٧١٧٫٧٩	٢١٫٢٩	٢٩٫٩%	١٠٧	SCENERY
٠٫٧٥	up	٧٧٢٨٫٤٤	٣١٫٩٤	٢٣٫٧%	٩٧	PULLS
١٫٠٠	up	٧٧٣٩٫٠٩	٤٢٫٥٩	١٣٫٨%	٥٨	PULLS
١٫٥٠	up	٧٧٦٠٫٣٨	٦٣٫٨٨	٠٫٠%	٢٢	SCENERY
٠٫٠٥	down	٧٦٩٤٫٣٧	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩١٫٣%	١٣٨	SCENERY	moved since 2018
٠٫١٠	down	٧٦٩٢٫٢٤	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨١٫٠%	١١٦	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	down	٧٦٩٠٫١١	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٦٥٫٣%	٩٥	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	down	٧٦٨٧٫٩٨	٨٫٥١٧٩	٥٤٫٩%	١١١	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	down	٧٦٨٥٫٨٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٨٫٢%	١٢٢	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	down	٧٦٨٣٫٧٢	١٢٫٧٨	٤٩٫٦%	١٢٧	SCENERY
٠٫٤٠	down	٧٦٧٩٫٤٦	١٧٫٠٤	٤٤٫٤%	١٥١	SCENERY
٠٫٥٠	down	٧٦٧٥٫٢١	٢١٫٢٩	٢٤٫٢%	١٩٨	SCENERY
٠٫٧٥	down	٧٦٦٤٫٥٦	٣١٫٩٤	١٥٫٣%	١٦٣	SCENERY
١٫٠٠	down	٧٦٥٣٫٩١	٤٢٫٥٩	٢٢٫٢%	٦٣	SCENERY	moved since 2018
١٫٥٠	down	٧٦٣٢٫٦٢	٦٣٫٨٨	٨٫٣%	١٢	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
٠٫٠٥	up	٧٦٩٨٫٦٣	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٤٫٢%	١٨٨	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	up	٧٧٠٠٫٧٦	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨٤٫٦%	١٠٤	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	up	٧٧٠٢٫٨٩	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٨٠٫٠%	١٠٥	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	up	٧٧٠٥٫٠٢	٨٫٥١٧٩	٧٠٫٩%	٨٦	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	up	٧٧٠٧٫١٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٣٫٠%	٦٦	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	up	٧٧٠٩٫٢٨	١٢٫٧٨	٦٢٫٢%	٨٢	PULLS
٠٫٤٠	up	٧٧١٣٫٥٤	١٧٫٠٤	٣٩٫٨%	٨٣	SCENERY
٠٫٥٠	up	٧٧١٧٫٧٩	٢١٫٢٩	٣٨٫٠%	٩٢	PULLS
٠٫٧٥	up	٧٧٢٨٫٤٤	٣١٫٩٤	٢٧٫٨%	٧٢	PULLS
١٫٠٠	up	٧٧٣٩٫٠٩	٤٢٫٥٩	١٨٫٠%	٣٩	PULLS
١٫٥٠	up	٧٧٦٠٫٣٨	٦٣٫٨٨	٦٫٧%	١٥	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
٠٫٠٥	down	٧٦٩٤٫٣٧	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٤٫٨%	١٧٣	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	down	٧٦٩٢٫٢٤	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨١٫٥%	١٢٤	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	down	٧٦٩٠٫١١	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٧٦٫٤%	١١٠	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	down	٧٦٨٧٫٩٨	٨٫٥١٧٩	٥٦٫٢%	١٣٠	SCENERY
٠٫٢٥	down	٧٦٨٥٫٨٥	١٠٫٦٥	٦٠٫٢%	١٠٨	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	down	٧٦٨٣٫٧٢	١٢٫٧٨	٤٤٫٣%	١٤٠	SCENERY
٠٫٤٠	down	٧٦٧٩٫٤٦	١٧٫٠٤	٤١٫٩%	١٣٦	PULLS
٠٫٥٠	down	٧٦٧٥٫٢١	٢١٫٢٩	٢٧٫٨%	١٦٢	SCENERY
٠٫٧٥	down	٧٦٦٤٫٥٦	٣١٫٩٤	١٧٫٨%	٧٣	SCENERY
١٫٠٠	down	٧٦٥٣٫٩١	٤٢٫٥٩	٣٢٫٣%	٣١	PULLS
١٫٥٠	down	٧٦٣٢٫٦٢	٦٣٫٨٨	٠٫٠%	٨	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
٠٫٠٥	up	٧٦٩٨٫٦٣	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩٤٫٠%	٣٦٧	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	up	٧٧٠٠٫٧٦	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٨٤٫١%	٢٠٧	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	up	٧٧٠٢٫٨٩	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٦٨٫٨%	١٢٥	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	up	٧٧٠٥٫٠٢	٨٫٥١٧٩	٧٠٫٢%	٨٤	PULLS	moved since 2018
٠٫٢٥	up	٧٧٠٧٫١٥	١٠٫٦٥	٦٨٫٣%	٦٣	PULLS
٠٫٣٠	up	٧٧٠٩٫٢٨	١٢٫٧٨	٦٧٫٢%	٦١	SCENERY	moved since 2018
٠٫٤٠	up	٧٧١٣٫٥٤	١٧٫٠٤	٥٢٫٨%	٣٦	PULLS
٠٫٥٠	up	٧٧١٧٫٧٩	٢١٫٢٩	٤٥٫٠%	٢٠	SCENERY
٠٫٧٥	up	٧٧٢٨٫٤٤	٣١٫٩٤	٢٥٫٠%	٨	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
١٫٥٠	up	٧٧٦٠٫٣٨	٦٣٫٨٨	—	٠	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
٠٫٠٥	down	٧٦٩٤٫٣٧	٢٫١٢٩٥	٩١٫٢%	٤٠٩	SCENERY
٠٫١٠	down	٧٦٩٢٫٢٤	٤٫٢٥٨٩	٧٥٫٩%	٢٨٢	SCENERY
٠٫١٥	down	٧٦٩٠٫١١	٦٫٣٨٨٤	٦٤٫٢%	٢٠٤	SCENERY
٠٫٢٠	down	٧٦٨٧٫٩٨	٨٫٥١٧٩	٦٩٫٨%	١٢٦	PULLS
٠٫٢٥	down	٧٦٨٥٫٨٥	١٠٫٦٥	٥٣٫٣%	٧٥	SCENERY
٠٫٣٠	down	٧٦٨٣٫٧٢	١٢٫٧٨	٦٢٫٢%	٧٤	PULLS
٠٫٤٠	down	٧٦٧٩٫٤٦	١٧٫٠٤	٥٩٫٣%	٥٤	PULLS
٠٫٥٠	down	٧٦٧٥٫٢١	٢١٫٢٩	٤٥٫٥%	٢٢	SCENERY
٠٫٧٥	down	٧٦٦٤٫٥٦	٣١٫٩٤	٤٠٫٠%	٥	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	٥٣٫٨%	٢٬١٤٥
up >0.20	٧٣٫٥%	١٨٥
up 0.10-0.20	٦٧٫٩%	٣٣٣
up 0.05-0.10	٦٢٫١%	٢٨٠
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	٥٣٫٦%	٦١٨	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	٤٧٫٣%	٢٣٧
dn 0.10-0.20	٣٦٫٧%	٣٠٠
dn >0.20	٣٣٫٩%	١٩٢

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	٣٣٫٣%	٢٬٢٢٢
RTH low is final by 10:30	٤٠٫٧%	٢٬٢٢٢
Both high and low final by 10:30	٢٫٣%	٢٬٢٢٢
Low comes before high (full day)	٥٣٫٢%	٢٬٢٢٢
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	٥١٫٢%	٢٬٢٢٢

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	٧٤٫٦%	٧٬٨١٩	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	٧٣٫٢%	٧٬١٦٨	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	٧٢٫٤%	١٬٩٣٤
[0.75,1.0)	٧٣٫٤%	٥٨٢	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	٧٦٫٧%	١٩٣	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	٧٣٫٢%	٤١
[1.5,2.0)	٨٤٫٠%	٢٥
>=2.0	٣٥٫٧%	١٤

Covers ١٠ symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.