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top 100 by |delta_held|, written as plain IF/THEN statements. rate/base measured on the held-out sample (out-of-sample, not the original fit window) — the honest number.
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Full database below.
CONDITIONAL ODDS / RESEARCH MAP
Click a point to jump to its row in the full database below.
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 95.0% vs. 35.1% | +60.0 pp | [91.1%, 97.3%] | 201 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:30am open is far above the prior session's open AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 91.8% vs. 31.7% | +60.0 pp | [86.7%, 95.1%] | 170 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 95.1% vs. 35.4% | +59.6 pp | [91.2%, 97.3%] | 203 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 96.7% vs. 37.2% | +59.5 pp | [93.4%, 98.4%] | 212 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 95.9% vs. 37.1% | +58.6 pp | [92.3%, 97.8%] | 215 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 96.9% vs. 38.5% | +58.5 pp | [93.8%, 98.5%] | 228 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 96.6% vs. 38.0% | +58.5 pp | [93.1%, 98.3%] | 203 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 95.5% vs. 37.2% | +58.3 pp | [91.7%, 97.6%] | 199 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 91.2% vs. 33.1% | +58.0 pp | [86.5%, 94.4%] | 203 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 95.2% vs. 37.2% | +57.9 pp | [90.8%, 97.5%] | 165 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 92.2% vs. 34.4% | +57.8 pp | [87.0%, 95.4%] | 165 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 92.1% vs. 34.4% | +57.6 pp | [87.6%, 95.0%] | 212 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 94.4% vs. 37.1% | +57.2 pp | [90.4%, 96.8%] | 212 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 94.9% vs. 37.8% | +57.0 pp | [90.8%, 97.2%] | 194 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 94.7% vs. 38.1% | +56.5 pp | [90.7%, 97.0%] | 205 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 93.0% vs. 36.5% | +56.5 pp | [88.9%, 95.7%] | 228 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 88.0% vs. 31.7% | +56.1 pp | [82.1%, 92.1%] | 165 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 90.5% vs. 34.4% | +56.1 pp | [85.6%, 93.8%] | 199 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 93.2% vs. 37.2% | +56.0 pp | [88.5%, 96.1%] | 176 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 87.2% vs. 31.6% | +55.7 pp | [81.2%, 91.5%] | 164 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 88.6% vs. 32.9% | +55.6 pp | [83.5%, 92.3%] | 201 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM | 88.5% vs. 32.9% | +55.6 pp | [82.9%, 92.4%] | 174 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 94.6% vs. 39.0% | +55.6 pp | [90.8%, 96.9%] | 221 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UB | 95.5% vs. 40.0% | +55.6 pp | [92.0%, 97.6%] | 223 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 89.9% vs. 34.2% | +55.5 pp | [85.1%, 93.2%] | 215 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 86.2% vs. 31.6% | +54.9 pp | [80.9%, 90.2%] | 215 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 93.9% vs. 39.0% | +54.8 pp | [89.8%, 96.4%] | 211 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 86.4% vs. 31.7% | +54.5 pp | [81.2%, 90.4%] | 212 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 89.3% vs. 35.1% | +54.2 pp | [84.0%, 93.0%] | 186 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 90.3% vs. 36.1% | +54.2 pp | [85.5%, 93.6%] | 205 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 86.0% vs. 31.7% | +54.2 pp | [80.5%, 90.1%] | 199 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 88.2% vs. 34.2% | +54.0 pp | [83.4%, 91.8%] | 228 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 88.3% vs. 34.2% | +54.0 pp | [83.2%, 91.9%] | 212 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UB | 90.8% vs. 37.0% | +53.7 pp | [85.7%, 94.2%] | 183 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 91.3% vs. 38.0% | +53.6 pp | [86.8%, 94.4%] | 216 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 91.9% vs. 38.5% | +53.5 pp | [87.7%, 94.8%] | 235 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UB | 90.6% vs. 37.3% | +53.3 pp | [86.1%, 93.8%] | 223 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 91.5% vs. 38.0% | +53.3 pp | [86.4%, 94.8%] | 174 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 87.6% vs. 34.4% | +53.2 pp | [81.8%, 91.7%] | 169 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 84.9% vs. 32.0% | +53.2 pp | [80.4%, 88.5%] | 300 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 89.6% vs. 36.6% | +53.1 pp | [84.9%, 93.0%] | 221 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 90.2% vs. 37.2% | +52.9 pp | [84.9%, 93.8%] | 172 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 87.4% vs. 34.4% | +52.8 pp | [81.6%, 91.5%] | 172 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIY | 80.3% vs. 28.0% | +52.8 pp | [75.4%, 84.4%] | 300 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 80.3% vs. 28.0% | +52.8 pp | [75.4%, 84.4%] | 300 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 81.9% vs. 29.8% | +52.6 pp | [77.2%, 85.9%] | 300 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 83.2% vs. 30.4% | +52.6 pp | [77.4%, 87.7%] | 201 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 85.1% vs. 32.9% | +52.5 pp | [79.1%, 89.6%] | 179 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM | 92.3% vs. 39.8% | +52.4 pp | [87.4%, 95.3%] | 180 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the Asia session never traded back to yesterday's settlement price AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 84.3% vs. 32.0% | +52.2 pp | [79.3%, 88.2%] | 257 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6E | 91.9% vs. 39.6% | +52.2 pp | [87.6%, 94.8%] | 223 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 87.5% vs. 35.4% | +51.9 pp | [81.8%, 91.6%] | 174 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIY | 90.4% vs. 38.5% | +51.7 pp | [87.4%, 92.7%] | 463 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 88.2% vs. 36.6% | +51.7 pp | [83.2%, 91.9%] | 211 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 86.7% vs. 35.4% | +51.6 pp | [81.5%, 90.6%] | 216 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 84.1% vs. 32.5% | +51.5 pp | [77.5%, 89.0%] | 157 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 84.1% vs. 32.5% | +51.5 pp | [77.5%, 89.0%] | 157 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap up AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6E | 82.3% vs. 31.1% | +51.5 pp | [76.5%, 86.9%] | 207 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 89.6% vs. 38.1% | +51.5 pp | [84.8%, 93.1%] | 211 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 83.1% vs. 31.6% | +51.4 pp | [77.5%, 87.5%] | 212 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 83.3% vs. 31.7% | +51.4 pp | [77.0%, 88.2%] | 172 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 82.8% vs. 31.6% | +51.4 pp | [76.4%, 87.8%] | 169 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the market breaks below the 9:00-10:30am candle's low by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIY | 79.6% vs. 28.0% | +51.3 pp | [74.3%, 84.0%] | 264 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London trades above the Asia session's high AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 86.4% vs. 35.1% | +51.3 pp | [80.6%, 90.7%] | 175 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 85.8% vs. 34.4% | +51.3 pp | [79.8%, 90.2%] | 174 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the Asia session never traded back to yesterday's settlement price AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 81.2% vs. 29.8% | +51.2 pp | [76.0%, 85.5%] | 257 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 81.8% vs. 30.4% | +51.2 pp | [75.4%, 86.8%] | 174 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 84.0% vs. 32.9% | +50.9 pp | [78.0%, 88.5%] | 186 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 89.4% vs. 38.5% | +50.8 pp | [86.3%, 91.9%] | 469 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 85.1% vs. 34.4% | +50.7 pp | [79.8%, 89.2%] | 221 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 85.3% vs. 34.8% | +50.5 pp | [79.0%, 90.0%] | 157 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London trades below the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 88.3% vs. 37.8% | +50.4 pp | [82.9%, 92.2%] | 187 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the morning session (9:30am-noon) closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMD | 84.2% vs. 33.7% | +50.4 pp | [77.7%, 89.0%] | 158 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 87.7% vs. 37.1% | +50.4 pp | [82.1%, 91.8%] | 177 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the London session closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UB | 85.3% vs. 34.8% | +50.4 pp | [79.5%, 89.7%] | 183 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM | 86.5% vs. 36.1% | +50.4 pp | [80.6%, 90.9%] | 171 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 86.8% vs. 36.5% | +50.4 pp | [81.9%, 90.5%] | 235 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM | 86.5% vs. 36.1% | +50.3 pp | [80.7%, 90.8%] | 178 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 86.3% vs. 36.1% | +50.3 pp | [81.0%, 90.3%] | 211 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIY | 80.2% vs. 30.0% | +50.2 pp | [75.5%, 84.2%] | 322 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZB | 83.5% vs. 33.1% | +50.2 pp | [77.3%, 88.3%] | 174 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM | 83.0% vs. 32.9% | +50.1 pp | [76.7%, 87.9%] | 171 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the market breaks above the 9:00-10:30am candle's high by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 82.0% vs. 31.7% | +50.1 pp | [74.8%, 87.5%] | 138 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London trades above the Asia session's high AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 87.4% vs. 37.2% | +50.1 pp | [82.0%, 91.3%] | 197 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 83.9% vs. 34.4% | +50.0 pp | [77.4%, 88.7%] | 160 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 80.1% vs. 30.4% | +50.0 pp | [73.7%, 85.3%] | 179 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the 9:00-10:30am candle closes higher AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 84.3% vs. 34.2% | +49.9 pp | [78.4%, 88.9%] | 183 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 81.8% vs. 32.0% | +49.9 pp | [77.4%, 85.4%] | 356 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIY | 81.6% vs. 31.9% | +49.9 pp | [77.3%, 85.3%] | 358 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 84.7% vs. 34.8% | +49.8 pp | [78.7%, 89.3%] | 176 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | 91.7% vs. 41.9% | +49.8 pp | [87.4%, 94.7%] | 228 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 80.7% vs. 31.6% | +49.8 pp | [73.9%, 86.1%] | 160 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the market breaks below the 9:00-10:30am candle's low by midday AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKD | 78.0% vs. 28.0% | +49.7 pp | [72.7%, 82.6%] | 268 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | 81.1% vs. 31.1% | +49.7 pp | [74.8%, 86.1%] | 183 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZN | 83.8% vs. 34.2% | +49.7 pp | [78.6%, 88.0%] | 235 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UB | 89.2% vs. 40.0% | +49.7 pp | [84.5%, 92.7%] | 222 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the day opens with a gap down AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 83.5% vs. 33.8% | +49.7 pp | [77.8%, 88.0%] | 205 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the first hour of trading closes lower AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YM | 82.6% vs. 32.9% | +49.7 pp | [76.3%, 87.5%] | 178 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF London stays above the Asia session's low AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's high THEN price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 9:30am ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZT | 84.8% vs. 35.1% | +49.7 pp | [78.4%, 89.5%] | 163 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
IF the open shows no pullback into yesterday's move AND an Asian peer market already took yesterday's low THEN price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET
| market | rate vs. base | delta | 95% CI | n | badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZF | 84.0% vs. 34.4% | +49.5 pp | [78.4%, 88.3%] | 211 | CROSS-CLUSTER (correlated markets) |
No verified conditional findings yet for this asset class — conditional odds require the multi-year verification pipeline that has so far run on futures only. Touch probabilities are available on the daily map and each market's symbol page.
No verified conditional findings yet for this asset class — conditional odds require the multi-year verification pipeline that has so far run on futures only. Touch probabilities are available on the daily map and each market's symbol page.
No verified conditional findings yet for this asset class — conditional odds require the multi-year verification pipeline that has so far run on futures only. This surface is still in progress and has not yet been through the skeptic review process. Touch probabilities are available on the daily map and each market's symbol page.
CI method: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held.