foxalgoPopular trading stats, checked
Each card below compares a publicly stated touch or extension percentage against a mirror level — the same distance from price, on the opposite side, at the same moment. Under a random walk, a level that far away gets touched about as often no matter which side it's on.
So a high percentage on its own proves nothing: touching is not earning, and a level sitting right next to price gets touched anyway. What matters is whether the real level beats its mirror by more than chance.
Probability map, not a directional call. what this means →
“After the 7:00 ET hourly candle closes, price revisits its 50% level between 8:00 and 14:00 ET — 93%.”
Geometry +0.1 pp (95% CI -1.2 to +1.4)
The 7:00 candle's 50% level sits a median 0.04 ATR from price by 8:00 — close enough that a random walk touches it almost as often as this claim does.
n = 2,178, NQ, 2018–2026
“Between 9:00 and 16:00 ET price takes out both the high and the low of the 8:00 ET candle — 73%.”
Geometry +0.4 pp (95% CI -1.9 to +2.6)
The 8:00 candle is a median 0.22 ATR wide — narrow enough that either side gets touched by the session's ordinary range, real level or not.
n = 2,099, NQ, 2018–2026
“15-minute opening range: after a 5-minute close outside it, price reaches a +50% extension of the range — 91%.”
Small real effect +3.0 pp (95% CI +0.9 to +5.3)
The extension target sits a median 0.11 ATR from price when the breakout confirms — the smallest gap of the three, and the only one with a real (if modest) edge over its mirror.
n = 2,104, NQ, 2018–2026
How this was measured
Data: NQ futures, Databento 15-second bars resampled to 1-minute, converted to America/New_York time, 2018-01 through 2026-07-09. Every window and level in each claim uses the same definition the claim itself uses (candle close, 50% level, opening range) — no favorable rewording. The comparison figure is a mirror level: the same distance from price at the window's start, on the opposite side.
This is not a trading recommendation and does not include costs (spread, slippage, commission) — it only asks whether a stated touch rate reflects real structure or just the geometry of a level sitting near price. Full methodology, definitions and known caveats: see the methodology page