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Levels. Sessions. Direction. Measured from the data — including when the answer is simply a coin flip.

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As of 11:18 ET

FOXALGO / TODAY

SNAPSHOT 11:18 ET

WHERE can price reach · WHEN before this session ends · WHICH WAY, if any

Where can price reach?

Market	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR
E-mini S&P 500	43.7% 38.4%	15.4% 15.4%	5.5% 6.3%	2.1% 2.9%
E-mini Nasdaq 100	43.7% 38.4%	15.4% 15.4%	5.5% 6.3%	2.1% 2.9%
Gold	61.0% 64.8%	32.4% 36.1%	16.5% 19.1%	8.4% 10.3%
WTI Crude	54.6% 53.4%	26.0% 25.3%	11.2% 10.7%	4.3% 4.2%
EUR/USD	67.7% 67.0%	40.3% 39.6%	22.2% 22.1%	11.3% 12.1%
Bitcoin	45.7% 46.3%	19.3% 20.6%	9.2% 10.0%	—
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	58.0% 52.5%	24.5% 27.2%	10.2% 14.0%	4.0% 6.5%
Nvidia	54.1% 51.0%	23.6% 22.8%	9.3% 9.8%	3.3% 4.0%

touched today

session still live

closed without touch

Probabilities are measured from the session anchor using historical path frequencies.

Explore the full map →

What can still happen before this session ends?

LIVE NEW YORK RIGHT NOW · ends in 4h 42m

ASIAopens in 8h 42m

LONDONclosed ✓

NEW YORK● ends in 4h 42m

market	+/-0.25 ATR by session end		+/-0.5 ATR by session end
E-mini S&P 500	UP 58.4%	DN 51.5%	UP 27.9%	DN 27.7%
E-mini Nasdaq 100	UP 58.4%	DN 51.5%	UP 27.9%	DN 27.7%
Gold	UP 52.7%	DN 53.6%	UP 24.8%	DN 25.9%
WTI Crude	UP 57.0%	DN 58.2%	UP 28.3%	DN 29.6%
EUR/USD	UP 30.4%	DN 29.1%	UP 8.4%	DN 8.0%

Measured to the end of the current session — anchored at that session's open. FX shows odds only: no reliable session-open anchor exists in the data feed for it. Crypto and stocks aren't shown here — crypto trades one continuous 24/7 session, and New York RTH for stocks already has its own by-close numbers elsewhere on the site.

Try the terminal

The full candlestick chart behind the map — live Binance data, tabbed across all 8 headline markets.

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 01B

ES · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 7794.75UPDATED 11:18 ET

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	7818.09	43.7%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	7771.41	38.4%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	7841.43	15.4%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	7748.07	15.4%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	7864.77	5.5%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	7724.73	6.3%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	7888.11	2.1%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	7701.39	2.9%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	7934.79	0.3%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	7654.71	0.6%	not touched yet

ES · last quote 7794.75 · ATR(14) 93.36

distance	target up	target down	odds by close (up)
0.25 ATR	7818.09	7771.41	43.7% n = 11,373
0.5 ATR	7841.43	7748.07	15.4% n = 11,373
1 ATR	7888.11	7701.39	2.1% n = 11,373

See full ES probability map →

Explore today's markets

Quote and position within today's realized range for the main markets — descriptive, not a signal.

Main markets

market	last quote	position in range	regime
E-mini S&P 500	7794.75	14%	narrow
E-mini Nasdaq 100	30267	60%	narrow
Gold	4476.1	83%	typical
WTI Crude	82.36	50%	narrow
EUR/USD	1.1589	30%	narrow
Bitcoin	63807.31	90%	not measured
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	775.38	26%	not measured
Ethereum	1903.22	82%	not measured

Index futures share one sector-level surface — identical regime readings are by construction, not a bug. Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

View all markets →

System status

31 / 32 tracking

Model status

MODEL FROZEN · since 2017

Out-of-sample

103 months public scoring

Last update

QUOTE 11:15 ET

Calibration

80–90% → 86.2%

Analytical tools

Set realistic targets

Before placing a target 0.75 ATR away, see how often price historically gets there from a comparable state.

Open the map →

Compare TP vs SL

Pick entry time, direction, TP and SL. See which was historically hit first.

Open brackets →

Find conditions that actually change the odds

Don't ask whether something "works". Compare its conditional probability against the base rate.

Open odds →

We froze the model in 2017. Then we watched what happened.

Fit on data through 2017, scored on every session since — the predicted line was fixed once and never re-fit.

market sessions

13,278

6 futures markets × trading days since 2018

out of sample

103 months

every complete month since 2018

calibration

80–90% → 86.2%

predicted → realized

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 02

FUTURESn = 164,920,140MAE 0.84 pp

CALIBRATION / PREDICTED VS REALIZED

View as table

bucket	predicted	realized	error	n
0-10%	3.4%	3.5%	+0.0 pp	56,042,860
10-20%	15.1%	15.0%	-0.1 pp	20,652,607
20-30%	24.8%	24.8%	+0.0 pp	16,450,897
30-40%	34.3%	34.3%	-0.0 pp	11,760,851
40-50%	45.2%	45.1%	-0.1 pp	12,768,405
50-60%	53.8%	53.7%	-0.1 pp	7,300,159
60-70%	65.9%	65.8%	-0.1 pp	9,908,539
70-80%	74.0%	73.6%	-0.3 pp	12,967,003
80-90%	86.1%	86.2%	+0.1 pp	16,535,975
90-100%	90.3%	89.9%	-0.4 pp	532,844

View the full Track Record →

The record, both ways

Every morning's prediction, frozen with a timestamp before the session opens and scored after the close — and every idea our own research killed, published instead of buried.

Live record

20 frozen · 0 resolved · 20 live

FOXALGO / LIVE RECORD

APPEND ONLYFROZEN BEFORE OPEN

Live prediction record

09:30 ETNvidia-0.50 ATR (221.77)39.7%LIVE
09:30 ETNvidia+0.50 ATR (229.35)41.8%LIVE
09:30 ETMicrosoft-0.50 ATR (482.46)39.7%LIVE
09:30 ETMicrosoft+0.50 ATR (499.86)41.8%LIVE
09:30 ETApple-0.50 ATR (302.09)39.7%LIVE
09:30 ETApple+0.50 ATR (310.91)41.8%LIVE
09:30 ETS&P 500 ETF (SPY)-0.50 ATR (772.31)42.0%LIVE
09:30 ETS&P 500 ETF (SPY)+0.50 ATR (780.79)40.8%LIVE
09:30 ETWTI Crude-0.50 ATR (80.30)30.1%LIVE
09:30 ETWTI Crude+0.50 ATR (84.78)29.0%LIVE
09:30 ETGold-0.50 ATR (4405.69)42.5%LIVE
09:30 ETGold+0.50 ATR (4477.71)36.9%LIVE
09:30 ETE-mini Russell 2000-0.50 ATR (3042.27)21.6%LIVE
09:30 ETE-mini Russell 2000+0.50 ATR (3086.73)21.7%LIVE
09:30 ETE-mini Dow-0.50 ATR (53296.54)21.6%LIVE

Frozen columns (date, symbol, level, predicted probability, price at freeze) are written once, before the session opens, and never edited — only the outcome is filled in after the close.

Graveyard

Anyone can publish a winning backtest. We also publish the ideas our own research killed. Lookahead. Confounding. Failed placebo tests. No edge.

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Every trading morning: the day's level odds, what the coming session can still do, and where the data says there's no directional call at all. Frozen before the open, scored after the close.

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