Know the odds before you set the level.

See how likely price is to reach a specific level today — before you choose your target, stop or trade plan.

Measured odds. No trade calls.

As of 06:29 ET

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 01

SNAPSHOT 06:29 ET

PROBABILITY MAP · TODAY

Market	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR
E-mini S&P 500	51.4% 47.7%	21.7% 21.6%	8.7% 10.3%	3.9% 5.0%
E-mini Nasdaq 100	51.4% 47.7%	21.7% 21.6%	8.7% 10.3%	3.9% 5.0%
Gold	63.0% 68.0%	36.9% 42.5%	20.6% 25.2%	11.3% 14.0%
WTI Crude	57.6% 59.0%	29.0% 30.1%	13.6% 14.4%	5.7% 6.1%
EUR/USD	67.7% 67.0%	40.3% 39.6%	22.2% 22.1%	11.3% 12.1%
Bitcoin	57.6% 58.2%	30.1% 29.8%	14.7% 15.9%	—
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	66.8% 66.5%	40.8% 42.0%	21.5% 25.7%	9.5% 14.3%
Nvidia	68.1% 66.8%	41.8% 39.7%	23.7% 21.8%	11.9% 11.1%

touched today

session still live

closed without touch

Probabilities are measured from the session anchor using historical path frequencies.

Explore the full map →

Try the terminal

The full candlestick chart behind the map — live Binance data, tabbed across all 8 headline markets.

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 01B

ES · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATAUPDATED 06:29 ET

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	7839.09	51.4%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	7792.41	47.7%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	7862.43	21.7%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	7769.07	21.6%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	7885.77	8.7%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	7745.73	10.3%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	7909.11	3.9%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	7722.39	5.0%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	7955.79	0.8%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	7675.71	1.1%	not touched yet

ES · last quote 7815.75 · ATR(14) 93.36

distance	target up	target down	odds by close (up)
0.25 ATR	7839.09	7792.41	51.4% n = 11,490
0.5 ATR	7862.43	7769.07	21.7% n = 11,490
1 ATR	7909.11	7722.39	3.9% n = 11,490

See full ES probability map →

System status

31 / 32 tracking

Model status

MODEL FROZEN · since 2017

Out-of-sample

103 months public scoring

Last update

QUOTE 06:15 ET

Calibration

80–90% → 86.2%

S&P 500 (ES) · +0.5 ATR21.7%n=11,490 Gold (GC) · +0.5 ATR36.9%n=9,580 WTI Crude (CL) · +0.5 ATR29.0%n=9,084 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · +0.5 ATR40.8%n=1,861 Bitcoin · P(touch in next 690m, weekday)1.6%n=1,700

What can you do with this?

Set realistic targets

Before placing a target 0.75 ATR away, see how often price historically gets there from a comparable state.

Open the map →

Compare TP vs SL

Pick entry time, direction, TP and SL. See which was historically hit first.

Open brackets →

Find conditions that actually change the odds

Don't ask whether something "works". Compare its conditional probability against the base rate.

Open odds →

Explore today's markets

Quote and position within today's realized range for the main markets — descriptive, not a signal.

Main markets

market	last quote	position in range	regime
E-mini S&P 500	7815.75	44%	narrow
E-mini Nasdaq 100	30289.5	58%	narrow
Gold	4451.3	32%	narrow
WTI Crude	83.17	97%	wide
EUR/USD	1.1598	53%	typical
Bitcoin	63265.49	60%	not measured
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	776.34	27%	not measured
Ethereum	1891.81	54%	not measured

Index futures share one sector-level surface — identical regime readings are by construction, not a bug. Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

View all markets →

Touch probability curve

The full up/down probability curve across every ATR distance the futures grid publishes, at the current checkpoint.

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 02

LIVELAST 7815.75SNAPSHOT 06:29 ETMODEL FROZEN

ES · TOUCH PROBABILITY CURVE

View as table

direction	distance	target	P(touch by close)	n
up	0.1 ATR	7825.09	79.2%	11,490
up	0.25 ATR	7839.09	51.4%	11,490
up	0.5 ATR	7862.43	21.7%	11,490
up	0.75 ATR	7885.77	8.7%	11,490
up	1 ATR	7909.11	3.9%	11,490
up	1.5 ATR	7955.79	0.8%	11,490
down	0.1 ATR	7806.41	76.5%	11,490
down	0.25 ATR	7792.41	47.7%	11,490
down	0.5 ATR	7769.07	21.6%	11,490
down	0.75 ATR	7745.73	10.3%	11,490
down	1 ATR	7722.39	5.0%	11,490
down	1.5 ATR	7675.71	1.1%	11,490

When we say the odds, do they hold?

Predicted vs. realized touch rate, by confidence bucket — futures, out of sample.

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 02

FUTURESn = 164,920,140MAE 0.84 pp

CALIBRATION / PREDICTED VS REALIZED

View as table

bucket	predicted	realized	error	n
0-10%	3.4%	3.5%	+0.0 pp	56,042,860
10-20%	15.1%	15.0%	-0.1 pp	20,652,607
20-30%	24.8%	24.8%	+0.0 pp	16,450,897
30-40%	34.3%	34.3%	-0.0 pp	11,760,851
40-50%	45.2%	45.1%	-0.1 pp	12,768,405
50-60%	53.8%	53.7%	-0.1 pp	7,300,159
60-70%	65.9%	65.8%	-0.1 pp	9,908,539
70-80%	74.0%	73.6%	-0.3 pp	12,967,003
80-90%	86.1%	86.2%	+0.1 pp	16,535,975
90-100%	90.3%	89.9%	-0.4 pp	532,844

When we say 80–90%, it happens 86.2% of the time. Full calibration for every asset class →

We stopped touching the model in 2017. Then we watched what happened.

Fit on data through 2017, scored on every session since — the predicted line was fixed once and never re-fit.

market sessions

13,278

6 futures markets × trading days since 2018

out of sample

103 months

every complete month since 2018

calibration

80–90% → 86.2%

predicted → realized

See the full public track record →

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 03

2018-01 to 2026-07worst month 15.8 pp

103 months. No resets.

|gap|:0–2pp2–4pp4–7pp7–12pp12pp+

View as table

month	predicted	realized	gap	n
2026-07	39.3%	34.8%	+4.5 pp	132
2026-06	39.3%	40.9%	+1.6 pp	132
2026-05	39.3%	42.9%	+3.5 pp	126
2026-04	39.3%	35.7%	+3.6 pp	126
2026-03	39.3%	40.6%	+1.3 pp	138
2026-02	39.3%	38.3%	+1.0 pp	120
2026-01	39.3%	41.3%	+2.0 pp	126
2025-12	39.3%	29.4%	+9.9 pp	126
2025-11	39.3%	44.4%	+5.1 pp	126
2025-10	39.3%	35.6%	+3.7 pp	132
2025-09	39.3%	49.2%	+9.9 pp	132
2025-08	39.3%	39.7%	+0.4 pp	126
2025-07	39.3%	36.2%	+3.1 pp	138
2025-06	39.3%	50.8%	+11.4 pp	132
2025-05	39.3%	38.1%	+1.2 pp	126
2025-04	39.3%	29.4%	+9.9 pp	126
2025-03	39.3%	44.7%	+5.4 pp	132
2025-02	39.3%	38.3%	+1.0 pp	120
2025-01	39.3%	38.3%	+1.0 pp	128
2024-12	39.3%	31.8%	+7.6 pp	126
2024-11	39.3%	35.8%	+3.5 pp	120
2024-10	39.3%	41.3%	+2.0 pp	138
2024-09	39.3%	36.4%	+2.9 pp	132
2024-08	39.3%	36.5%	+2.8 pp	126
2024-07	39.3%	47.8%	+8.5 pp	138
2024-06	39.3%	44.4%	+5.1 pp	126
2024-05	39.3%	29.5%	+9.8 pp	132
2024-04	39.3%	40.9%	+1.6 pp	132
2024-03	39.3%	42.5%	+3.2 pp	120
2024-02	39.3%	39.7%	+0.4 pp	126
2024-01	39.3%	40.6%	+1.3 pp	138
2023-12	39.3%	44.7%	+5.4 pp	114
2023-11	39.3%	40.2%	+0.8 pp	132
2023-10	39.3%	40.6%	+1.3 pp	138
2023-09	39.3%	36.7%	+2.6 pp	120
2023-08	39.3%	44.2%	+4.9 pp	138
2023-07	39.3%	48.5%	+9.2 pp	132
2023-06	39.3%	49.2%	+9.9 pp	126
2023-05	39.3%	34.1%	+5.3 pp	138
2023-04	39.3%	35.0%	+4.3 pp	120
2023-03	39.3%	47.0%	+7.7 pp	132
2023-02	39.3%	34.2%	+5.1 pp	120
2023-01	39.3%	47.0%	+7.7 pp	132
2022-12	39.3%	35.8%	+3.5 pp	120
2022-11	39.3%	35.6%	+3.7 pp	132
2022-10	39.3%	42.4%	+3.1 pp	132
2022-09	39.3%	37.3%	+2.0 pp	126
2022-08	39.3%	47.8%	+8.5 pp	138
2022-07	39.3%	46.8%	+7.5 pp	126
2022-06	39.3%	39.4%	+0.1 pp	132
2022-05	39.3%	34.1%	+5.3 pp	138
2022-04	39.3%	39.5%	+0.2 pp	114
2022-03	39.3%	37.7%	+1.6 pp	138
2022-02	39.3%	40.8%	+1.5 pp	120
2022-01	39.3%	43.2%	+3.9 pp	132
2021-12	39.3%	42.1%	+2.8 pp	126
2021-11	39.3%	37.1%	+2.2 pp	132
2021-10	39.3%	41.3%	+2.0 pp	126
2021-09	39.3%	39.4%	+0.1 pp	132
2021-08	39.3%	39.1%	+0.2 pp	138
2021-07	39.3%	36.5%	+2.8 pp	126
2021-06	39.3%	34.8%	+4.5 pp	132
2021-05	39.3%	37.9%	+1.4 pp	132
2021-04	39.3%	33.3%	+6.0 pp	120
2021-03	39.3%	39.1%	+0.2 pp	138
2021-02	39.3%	42.5%	+3.2 pp	120
2021-01	39.3%	38.9%	+0.4 pp	126
2020-12	39.3%	44.4%	+5.1 pp	126
2020-11	39.3%	31.1%	+8.2 pp	132
2020-10	39.3%	39.7%	+0.4 pp	126
2020-09	39.3%	34.8%	+4.5 pp	132
2020-08	39.3%	39.4%	+0.1 pp	132
2020-07	39.3%	38.6%	+0.7 pp	132
2020-06	39.3%	37.1%	+2.2 pp	132
2020-05	39.3%	37.3%	+2.0 pp	126
2020-04	39.3%	33.3%	+6.0 pp	126
2020-03	39.3%	42.3%	+3.0 pp	137
2020-02	39.3%	48.7%	+9.4 pp	117
2020-01	39.3%	48.5%	+9.2 pp	132
2019-12	39.3%	46.0%	+6.7 pp	126
2019-11	39.3%	35.0%	+4.3 pp	120
2019-10	39.3%	42.0%	+2.7 pp	138
2019-09	39.3%	30.3%	+9.0 pp	132
2019-08	39.3%	31.8%	+7.6 pp	126
2019-07	39.3%	42.8%	+3.4 pp	138
2019-06	39.3%	38.9%	+0.4 pp	126
2019-05	39.3%	42.4%	+3.1 pp	132
2019-04	39.3%	29.4%	+9.9 pp	126
2019-03	39.3%	36.5%	+2.8 pp	126
2019-02	39.3%	40.8%	+1.5 pp	120
2019-01	39.3%	40.6%	+1.3 pp	138
2018-12	39.3%	27.6%	+11.7 pp	116
2018-11	39.3%	31.8%	+7.6 pp	126
2018-10	39.3%	40.6%	+1.3 pp	138
2018-09	39.3%	42.1%	+2.8 pp	126
2018-08	39.3%	44.7%	+5.4 pp	132
2018-07	39.3%	38.4%	+0.9 pp	138
2018-06	39.3%	44.2%	+4.9 pp	120
2018-05	39.3%	39.1%	+0.2 pp	138
2018-04	39.3%	29.5%	+9.8 pp	132
2018-03	39.3%	37.5%	+1.8 pp	120
2018-02	39.3%	35.0%	+4.3 pp	120
2018-01	39.3%	55.1%	+15.8 pp	138

We publish what fails, too.

Anyone can publish a winning backtest. We also publish the ideas our own research killed. Lookahead. Confounding. Failed placebo tests. No edge.

Visit the Graveyard →

Why traders trust this

Public out-of-sample track record — predictions scored against real outcomes
Frozen model — we stopped changing it in 2017
Live coverage — futures, FX, stocks and crypto, updated through the day
Failures stay public — dead hypotheses live in the Graveyard
No signals, no guru calls — measured odds only

The live record

Every morning's prediction, frozen with a timestamp before the session opens and scored after the close. Append-only — nothing here is ever rewritten.

FOXALGO / LIVE RECORD

APPEND ONLYFROZEN BEFORE OPEN

Live prediction record

COLLECTING DATA — LIVE RECORD — the first frozen predictions publish at the next market open (09:30 ET). Every row is timestamped before the session and scored after the close; frozen columns are never edited.

Your market probability map. Before the open.

ES · NQ · Gold · Crude · FX · Stocks · Crypto

Send me the map →

Free. One email each trading morning.

What a number on this site means

Every rate ships with its base rate, sample size and confidence interval — how to read this →

Adversarially reviewed by an independent skeptic passFalsified findings published, not hidden — see the graveyardWhen we said 80-90%, it happened 86.2% of the time — scorecard →

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →