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As of 07:11 ET

FOXALGO / TODAY

SNAPSHOT 07:11 ET

WHERE can price reach · WHEN before this session ends · WHICH WAY, if any

Where can price reach?

Market	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR
E-mini S&P 500	51.4% 47.7%	21.7% 21.6%	8.7% 10.3%	3.9% 5.0%
E-mini Nasdaq 100	51.4% 47.7%	21.7% 21.6%	8.7% 10.3%	3.9% 5.0%
Gold	63.0% 68.0%	36.9% 42.5%	20.6% 25.2%	11.3% 14.0%
WTI Crude	57.6% 59.0%	29.0% 30.1%	13.6% 14.4%	5.7% 6.1%
EUR/USD	67.7% 67.0%	40.3% 39.6%	22.2% 22.1%	11.3% 12.1%
Bitcoin	56.3% 56.9%	28.2% 29.0%	13.3% 15.2%	—
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	66.8% 66.5%	40.8% 42.0%	21.5% 25.7%	9.5% 14.3%
Nvidia	68.1% 66.8%	41.8% 39.7%	23.7% 21.8%	11.9% 11.1%

touched today

session still live

closed without touch

Probabilities are measured from the session anchor using historical path frequencies.

Explore the full map →

What can still happen before this session ends?

LIVE LONDON RIGHT NOW · ends in 49m

ASIAclosed ✓

LONDON● ends in 49m

NEW YORKopens in 2h 19m

market	+/-0.25 ATR by session end		+/-0.5 ATR by session end
E-mini S&P 500	UP 8.1%	DN 8.5%	UP 1.2%	DN 0.9%
E-mini Nasdaq 100	UP 8.1%	DN 8.5%	UP 1.2%	DN 0.9%
Gold	UP 23.0%	DN 22.6%	UP 4.1%	DN 4.0%
WTI Crude	UP 14.8%	DN 14.3%	UP 2.2%	DN 1.8%
EUR/USD	UP 5.4%	DN 5.0%	UP 0.5%	DN 0.5%

Measured to the end of the current session — anchored at that session's open. FX shows odds only: no reliable session-open anchor exists in the data feed for it. Crypto and stocks aren't shown here — crypto trades one continuous 24/7 session, and New York RTH for stocks already has its own by-close numbers elsewhere on the site.

Try the terminal

The full candlestick chart behind the map — live Binance data, tabbed across all 8 headline markets.

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 01B

ES · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 7733.75UPDATED 07:11 ET

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	7757.09	51.4%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	7710.41	47.7%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	7780.43	21.7%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	7687.07	21.6%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	7803.77	8.7%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	7663.73	10.3%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	7827.11	3.9%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	7640.39	5.0%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	7873.79	0.8%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	7593.71	1.1%	not touched yet

ES · last quote 7733.75 · ATR(14) 93.36

distance	target up	target down	odds by close (up)
0.25 ATR	7757.09	7710.41	51.4% n = 11,490
0.5 ATR	7780.43	7687.07	21.7% n = 11,490
1 ATR	7827.11	7640.39	3.9% n = 11,490

See full ES probability map →

Explore today's markets

Quote and position within today's realized range for the main markets — descriptive, not a signal.

Main markets

market	last quote	position in range	regime
E-mini S&P 500	7733.75	61%	narrow
E-mini Nasdaq 100	29749	26%	typical
Gold	4455.8	80%	narrow
WTI Crude	83.93	4%	wide
EUR/USD	1.1579	44%	narrow
Bitcoin	64130.63	29%	not measured
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	772.67	4%	not measured
Ethereum	1896.42	42%	not measured

Index futures share one sector-level surface — identical regime readings are by construction, not a bug. Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

View all markets →

System status

31 / 32 tracking

Model status

MODEL FROZEN · since 2017

Out-of-sample

103 months public scoring

Last update

QUOTE 07:00 ET

Calibration

80–90% → 86.2%

Analytical tools

Set realistic targets

Before placing a target 0.75 ATR away, see how often price historically gets there from a comparable state.

Open the map →

Compare TP vs SL

Pick entry time, direction, TP and SL. See which was historically hit first.

Open brackets →

Find conditions that actually change the odds

Don't ask whether something "works". Compare its conditional probability against the base rate.

Open odds →

We froze the model in 2017. Then we watched what happened.

Fit on data through 2017, scored on every session since — the predicted line was fixed once and never re-fit.

market sessions

13,278

6 futures markets × trading days since 2018

out of sample

103 months

every complete month since 2018

calibration

80–90% → 86.2%

predicted → realized

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 02

FUTURESn = 164,920,140MAE 0.84 pp

CALIBRATION / PREDICTED VS REALIZED

View as table

bucket	predicted	realized	error	n
0-10%	3.4%	3.5%	+0.0 pp	56,042,860
10-20%	15.1%	15.0%	-0.1 pp	20,652,607
20-30%	24.8%	24.8%	+0.0 pp	16,450,897
30-40%	34.3%	34.3%	-0.0 pp	11,760,851
40-50%	45.2%	45.1%	-0.1 pp	12,768,405
50-60%	53.8%	53.7%	-0.1 pp	7,300,159
60-70%	65.9%	65.8%	-0.1 pp	9,908,539
70-80%	74.0%	73.6%	-0.3 pp	12,967,003
80-90%	86.1%	86.2%	+0.1 pp	16,535,975
90-100%	90.3%	89.9%	-0.4 pp	532,844

View the full Track Record →

The record, both ways

Every morning's prediction, frozen with a timestamp before the session opens and scored after the close — and every idea our own research killed, published instead of buried.

Live record

24 frozen · 20 resolved · 4 live

FOXALGO / LIVE RECORD

APPEND ONLYFROZEN BEFORE OPEN

Live prediction record

00:00 UTC (UTC-day anchor)Ethereum-0.50 ATR (1894.25)41.9%LIVE
00:00 UTC (UTC-day anchor)Ethereum+0.50 ATR (1931.21)37.9%LIVE
00:00 UTC (UTC-day anchor)Bitcoin-0.50 ATR (63987.33)41.9%LIVE
00:00 UTC (UTC-day anchor)Bitcoin+0.50 ATR (65008.55)37.9%LIVE
09:30 ETNvidia-0.50 ATR (221.77)39.7%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETNvidia+0.50 ATR (229.35)41.8%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETMicrosoft-0.50 ATR (482.46)39.7%✓ TOUCHED
09:30 ETMicrosoft+0.50 ATR (499.86)41.8%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETApple-0.50 ATR (302.09)39.7%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETApple+0.50 ATR (310.91)41.8%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETS&P 500 ETF (SPY)-0.50 ATR (772.31)42.0%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETS&P 500 ETF (SPY)+0.50 ATR (780.79)40.8%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETWTI Crude-0.50 ATR (80.30)30.1%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED
09:30 ETWTI Crude+0.50 ATR (84.78)29.0%✓ TOUCHED
09:30 ETGold-0.50 ATR (4405.69)42.5%× NOT TOUCHED · SESSION CLOSED

Frozen columns (date, symbol, level, predicted probability, price at freeze) are written once, before the session opens, and never edited — only the outcome is filled in after the close.

Graveyard

Anyone can publish a winning backtest. We also publish the ideas our own research killed. Lookahead. Confounding. Failed placebo tests. No edge.

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The FoxAlgo Morning Brief

Every trading morning: the day's level odds, what the coming session can still do, and where the data says there's no directional call at all. Frozen before the open, scored after the close.

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Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →