Know the odds before you set the level.
See how likely price is to reach a specific level today — before you choose your target, stop or trade plan.
Measured odds. No trade calls.
As of 06:29 ET
PROBABILITY MAP · TODAY
Probabilities are measured from the session anchor using historical path frequencies.
Try the terminal
The full candlestick chart behind the map — live Binance data, tabbed across all 8 headline markets.
ES · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 7839.09 | 51.4% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 7792.41 | 47.7% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 7862.43 | 21.7% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 7769.07 | 21.6% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 7885.77 | 8.7% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 7745.73 | 10.3% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 7909.11 | 3.9% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 7722.39 | 5.0% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 7955.79 | 0.8% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 7675.71 | 1.1% | not touched yet |
ES · last quote 7815.75 · ATR(14) 93.36
| distance | target up | target down | odds by close (up) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 ATR | 7839.09 | 7792.41 | 51.4% n = 11,490 |
| 0.5 ATR | 7862.43 | 7769.07 | 21.7% n = 11,490 |
| 1 ATR | 7909.11 | 7722.39 | 3.9% n = 11,490 |
What can you do with this?
Set realistic targets
Before placing a target 0.75 ATR away, see how often price historically gets there from a comparable state.
Compare TP vs SL
Pick entry time, direction, TP and SL. See which was historically hit first.
Find conditions that actually change the odds
Don't ask whether something "works". Compare its conditional probability against the base rate.
Explore today's markets
Quote and position within today's realized range for the main markets — descriptive, not a signal.
Main markets
| market | last quote | position in range | regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini S&P 500 | 7815.75 | 44% | narrow |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100 | 30289.5 | 58% | narrow |
| Gold | 4451.3 | 32% | narrow |
| WTI Crude | 83.17 | 97% | wide |
| EUR/USD | 1.1598 | 53% | typical |
| Bitcoin | 63265.49 | 60% | not measured |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | 776.34 | 27% | not measured |
| Ethereum | 1891.81 | 54% | not measured |
Index futures share one sector-level surface — identical regime readings are by construction, not a bug. Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
Touch probability curve
The full up/down probability curve across every ATR distance the futures grid publishes, at the current checkpoint.
ES · TOUCH PROBABILITY CURVE
View as table
| direction | distance | target | P(touch by close) | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up | 0.1 ATR | 7825.09 | 79.2% | 11,490 |
| up | 0.25 ATR | 7839.09 | 51.4% | 11,490 |
| up | 0.5 ATR | 7862.43 | 21.7% | 11,490 |
| up | 0.75 ATR | 7885.77 | 8.7% | 11,490 |
| up | 1 ATR | 7909.11 | 3.9% | 11,490 |
| up | 1.5 ATR | 7955.79 | 0.8% | 11,490 |
| down | 0.1 ATR | 7806.41 | 76.5% | 11,490 |
| down | 0.25 ATR | 7792.41 | 47.7% | 11,490 |
| down | 0.5 ATR | 7769.07 | 21.6% | 11,490 |
| down | 0.75 ATR | 7745.73 | 10.3% | 11,490 |
| down | 1 ATR | 7722.39 | 5.0% | 11,490 |
| down | 1.5 ATR | 7675.71 | 1.1% | 11,490 |
When we say the odds, do they hold?
Predicted vs. realized touch rate, by confidence bucket — futures, out of sample.
CALIBRATION / PREDICTED VS REALIZED
View as table
| bucket | predicted | realized | error | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 3.4% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp | 56,042,860 |
| 10-20% | 15.1% | 15.0% | -0.1 pp | 20,652,607 |
| 20-30% | 24.8% | 24.8% | +0.0 pp | 16,450,897 |
| 30-40% | 34.3% | 34.3% | -0.0 pp | 11,760,851 |
| 40-50% | 45.2% | 45.1% | -0.1 pp | 12,768,405 |
| 50-60% | 53.8% | 53.7% | -0.1 pp | 7,300,159 |
| 60-70% | 65.9% | 65.8% | -0.1 pp | 9,908,539 |
| 70-80% | 74.0% | 73.6% | -0.3 pp | 12,967,003 |
| 80-90% | 86.1% | 86.2% | +0.1 pp | 16,535,975 |
| 90-100% | 90.3% | 89.9% | -0.4 pp | 532,844 |
When we say 80–90%, it happens 86.2% of the time. Full calibration for every asset class →
We stopped touching the model in 2017. Then we watched what happened.
Fit on data through 2017, scored on every session since — the predicted line was fixed once and never re-fit.
See the full public track record →
103 months. No resets.
View as table
| month | predicted | realized | gap | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 39.3% | 34.8% | +4.5 pp | 132 |
| 2026-06 | 39.3% | 40.9% | +1.6 pp | 132 |
| 2026-05 | 39.3% | 42.9% | +3.5 pp | 126 |
| 2026-04 | 39.3% | 35.7% | +3.6 pp | 126 |
| 2026-03 | 39.3% | 40.6% | +1.3 pp | 138 |
| 2026-02 | 39.3% | 38.3% | +1.0 pp | 120 |
| 2026-01 | 39.3% | 41.3% | +2.0 pp | 126 |
| 2025-12 | 39.3% | 29.4% | +9.9 pp | 126 |
| 2025-11 | 39.3% | 44.4% | +5.1 pp | 126 |
| 2025-10 | 39.3% | 35.6% | +3.7 pp | 132 |
| 2025-09 | 39.3% | 49.2% | +9.9 pp | 132 |
| 2025-08 | 39.3% | 39.7% | +0.4 pp | 126 |
| 2025-07 | 39.3% | 36.2% | +3.1 pp | 138 |
| 2025-06 | 39.3% | 50.8% | +11.4 pp | 132 |
| 2025-05 | 39.3% | 38.1% | +1.2 pp | 126 |
| 2025-04 | 39.3% | 29.4% | +9.9 pp | 126 |
| 2025-03 | 39.3% | 44.7% | +5.4 pp | 132 |
| 2025-02 | 39.3% | 38.3% | +1.0 pp | 120 |
| 2025-01 | 39.3% | 38.3% | +1.0 pp | 128 |
| 2024-12 | 39.3% | 31.8% | +7.6 pp | 126 |
| 2024-11 | 39.3% | 35.8% | +3.5 pp | 120 |
| 2024-10 | 39.3% | 41.3% | +2.0 pp | 138 |
| 2024-09 | 39.3% | 36.4% | +2.9 pp | 132 |
| 2024-08 | 39.3% | 36.5% | +2.8 pp | 126 |
| 2024-07 | 39.3% | 47.8% | +8.5 pp | 138 |
| 2024-06 | 39.3% | 44.4% | +5.1 pp | 126 |
| 2024-05 | 39.3% | 29.5% | +9.8 pp | 132 |
| 2024-04 | 39.3% | 40.9% | +1.6 pp | 132 |
| 2024-03 | 39.3% | 42.5% | +3.2 pp | 120 |
| 2024-02 | 39.3% | 39.7% | +0.4 pp | 126 |
| 2024-01 | 39.3% | 40.6% | +1.3 pp | 138 |
| 2023-12 | 39.3% | 44.7% | +5.4 pp | 114 |
| 2023-11 | 39.3% | 40.2% | +0.8 pp | 132 |
| 2023-10 | 39.3% | 40.6% | +1.3 pp | 138 |
| 2023-09 | 39.3% | 36.7% | +2.6 pp | 120 |
| 2023-08 | 39.3% | 44.2% | +4.9 pp | 138 |
| 2023-07 | 39.3% | 48.5% | +9.2 pp | 132 |
| 2023-06 | 39.3% | 49.2% | +9.9 pp | 126 |
| 2023-05 | 39.3% | 34.1% | +5.3 pp | 138 |
| 2023-04 | 39.3% | 35.0% | +4.3 pp | 120 |
| 2023-03 | 39.3% | 47.0% | +7.7 pp | 132 |
| 2023-02 | 39.3% | 34.2% | +5.1 pp | 120 |
| 2023-01 | 39.3% | 47.0% | +7.7 pp | 132 |
| 2022-12 | 39.3% | 35.8% | +3.5 pp | 120 |
| 2022-11 | 39.3% | 35.6% | +3.7 pp | 132 |
| 2022-10 | 39.3% | 42.4% | +3.1 pp | 132 |
| 2022-09 | 39.3% | 37.3% | +2.0 pp | 126 |
| 2022-08 | 39.3% | 47.8% | +8.5 pp | 138 |
| 2022-07 | 39.3% | 46.8% | +7.5 pp | 126 |
| 2022-06 | 39.3% | 39.4% | +0.1 pp | 132 |
| 2022-05 | 39.3% | 34.1% | +5.3 pp | 138 |
| 2022-04 | 39.3% | 39.5% | +0.2 pp | 114 |
| 2022-03 | 39.3% | 37.7% | +1.6 pp | 138 |
| 2022-02 | 39.3% | 40.8% | +1.5 pp | 120 |
| 2022-01 | 39.3% | 43.2% | +3.9 pp | 132 |
| 2021-12 | 39.3% | 42.1% | +2.8 pp | 126 |
| 2021-11 | 39.3% | 37.1% | +2.2 pp | 132 |
| 2021-10 | 39.3% | 41.3% | +2.0 pp | 126 |
| 2021-09 | 39.3% | 39.4% | +0.1 pp | 132 |
| 2021-08 | 39.3% | 39.1% | +0.2 pp | 138 |
| 2021-07 | 39.3% | 36.5% | +2.8 pp | 126 |
| 2021-06 | 39.3% | 34.8% | +4.5 pp | 132 |
| 2021-05 | 39.3% | 37.9% | +1.4 pp | 132 |
| 2021-04 | 39.3% | 33.3% | +6.0 pp | 120 |
| 2021-03 | 39.3% | 39.1% | +0.2 pp | 138 |
| 2021-02 | 39.3% | 42.5% | +3.2 pp | 120 |
| 2021-01 | 39.3% | 38.9% | +0.4 pp | 126 |
| 2020-12 | 39.3% | 44.4% | +5.1 pp | 126 |
| 2020-11 | 39.3% | 31.1% | +8.2 pp | 132 |
| 2020-10 | 39.3% | 39.7% | +0.4 pp | 126 |
| 2020-09 | 39.3% | 34.8% | +4.5 pp | 132 |
| 2020-08 | 39.3% | 39.4% | +0.1 pp | 132 |
| 2020-07 | 39.3% | 38.6% | +0.7 pp | 132 |
| 2020-06 | 39.3% | 37.1% | +2.2 pp | 132 |
| 2020-05 | 39.3% | 37.3% | +2.0 pp | 126 |
| 2020-04 | 39.3% | 33.3% | +6.0 pp | 126 |
| 2020-03 | 39.3% | 42.3% | +3.0 pp | 137 |
| 2020-02 | 39.3% | 48.7% | +9.4 pp | 117 |
| 2020-01 | 39.3% | 48.5% | +9.2 pp | 132 |
| 2019-12 | 39.3% | 46.0% | +6.7 pp | 126 |
| 2019-11 | 39.3% | 35.0% | +4.3 pp | 120 |
| 2019-10 | 39.3% | 42.0% | +2.7 pp | 138 |
| 2019-09 | 39.3% | 30.3% | +9.0 pp | 132 |
| 2019-08 | 39.3% | 31.8% | +7.6 pp | 126 |
| 2019-07 | 39.3% | 42.8% | +3.4 pp | 138 |
| 2019-06 | 39.3% | 38.9% | +0.4 pp | 126 |
| 2019-05 | 39.3% | 42.4% | +3.1 pp | 132 |
| 2019-04 | 39.3% | 29.4% | +9.9 pp | 126 |
| 2019-03 | 39.3% | 36.5% | +2.8 pp | 126 |
| 2019-02 | 39.3% | 40.8% | +1.5 pp | 120 |
| 2019-01 | 39.3% | 40.6% | +1.3 pp | 138 |
| 2018-12 | 39.3% | 27.6% | +11.7 pp | 116 |
| 2018-11 | 39.3% | 31.8% | +7.6 pp | 126 |
| 2018-10 | 39.3% | 40.6% | +1.3 pp | 138 |
| 2018-09 | 39.3% | 42.1% | +2.8 pp | 126 |
| 2018-08 | 39.3% | 44.7% | +5.4 pp | 132 |
| 2018-07 | 39.3% | 38.4% | +0.9 pp | 138 |
| 2018-06 | 39.3% | 44.2% | +4.9 pp | 120 |
| 2018-05 | 39.3% | 39.1% | +0.2 pp | 138 |
| 2018-04 | 39.3% | 29.5% | +9.8 pp | 132 |
| 2018-03 | 39.3% | 37.5% | +1.8 pp | 120 |
| 2018-02 | 39.3% | 35.0% | +4.3 pp | 120 |
| 2018-01 | 39.3% | 55.1% | +15.8 pp | 138 |
We publish what fails, too.
Anyone can publish a winning backtest. We also publish the ideas our own research killed. Lookahead. Confounding. Failed placebo tests. No edge.
Why traders trust this
- Public out-of-sample track record — predictions scored against real outcomes
- Frozen model — we stopped changing it in 2017
- Live coverage — futures, FX, stocks and crypto, updated through the day
- Failures stay public — dead hypotheses live in the Graveyard
- No signals, no guru calls — measured odds only
The live record
Every morning's prediction, frozen with a timestamp before the session opens and scored after the close. Append-only — nothing here is ever rewritten.
Live prediction record
Your market probability map. Before the open.
ES · NQ · Gold · Crude · FX · Stocks · Crypto
Free. One email each trading morning.
What a number on this site means
Every rate ships with its base rate, sample size and confidence interval — how to read this →
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →