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Know the odds before you trade the day.

Levels. Sessions. Direction. Measured from the data — including when the answer is simply a coin flip.

Measured odds. No trade calls.

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As of 11:18 ET

FOXALGO / TODAY
SNAPSHOT 11:18 ET

WHERE can price reach · WHEN before this session ends · WHICH WAY, if any

Try the terminal

The full candlestick chart behind the map — live Binance data, tabbed across all 8 headline markets.

FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 01B

ES · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 7794.75UPDATED 11:18 ET
View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR7818.0943.7%✓ touched
-0.25 ATR7771.4138.4%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR7841.4315.4%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR7748.0715.4%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR7864.775.5%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR7724.736.3%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR7888.112.1%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR7701.392.9%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR7934.790.3%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR7654.710.6%not touched yet

ES · last quote 7794.75 · ATR(14) 93.36

distancetarget uptarget downodds by close (up)
0.25 ATR7818.097771.4143.7% n = 11,373
0.5 ATR7841.437748.0715.4% n = 11,373
1 ATR7888.117701.392.1% n = 11,373

See full ES probability map →

Explore today's markets

Quote and position within today's realized range for the main markets — descriptive, not a signal.

Main markets

marketlast quoteposition in rangeregime
E-mini S&P 5007794.7514%narrow
E-mini Nasdaq 1003026760%narrow
Gold4476.183%typical
WTI Crude82.3650%narrow
EUR/USD1.158930%narrow
Bitcoin63807.3190%not measured
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)775.3826%not measured
Ethereum1903.2282%not measured

Index futures share one sector-level surface — identical regime readings are by construction, not a bug. Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

View all markets →

System status
31 / 32 tracking
Model status
MODEL FROZEN · since 2017
Out-of-sample
103 months public scoring
Last update
QUOTE 11:15 ET
Calibration
80–90% → 86.2%

Analytical tools

Set realistic targets

Before placing a target 0.75 ATR away, see how often price historically gets there from a comparable state.

Open the map →

Compare TP vs SL

Pick entry time, direction, TP and SL. See which was historically hit first.

Open brackets →

Find conditions that actually change the odds

Don't ask whether something "works". Compare its conditional probability against the base rate.

Open odds →

We froze the model in 2017. Then we watched what happened.

Fit on data through 2017, scored on every session since — the predicted line was fixed once and never re-fit.

market sessions
13,278
6 futures markets × trading days since 2018
out of sample
103 months
every complete month since 2018
calibration
80–90% → 86.2%
predicted → realized
FOXALGO / MARKET INSTRUMENT 02
FUTURESn = 164,920,140MAE 0.84 pp

CALIBRATION / PREDICTED VS REALIZED

00252550507575100100perfect calibrationpredicted %realized %
View as table
bucketpredictedrealizederrorn
0-10%3.4%3.5%+0.0 pp56,042,860
10-20%15.1%15.0%-0.1 pp20,652,607
20-30%24.8%24.8%+0.0 pp16,450,897
30-40%34.3%34.3%-0.0 pp11,760,851
40-50%45.2%45.1%-0.1 pp12,768,405
50-60%53.8%53.7%-0.1 pp7,300,159
60-70%65.9%65.8%-0.1 pp9,908,539
70-80%74.0%73.6%-0.3 pp12,967,003
80-90%86.1%86.2%+0.1 pp16,535,975
90-100%90.3%89.9%-0.4 pp532,844

View the full Track Record →

The record, both ways

Every morning's prediction, frozen with a timestamp before the session opens and scored after the close — and every idea our own research killed, published instead of buried.

Live record

20 frozen · 0 resolved · 20 live

FOXALGO / LIVE RECORD
APPEND ONLYFROZEN BEFORE OPEN

Live prediction record

  • 09:30 ETNvidia-0.50 ATR (221.77)39.7%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETNvidia+0.50 ATR (229.35)41.8%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETMicrosoft-0.50 ATR (482.46)39.7%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETMicrosoft+0.50 ATR (499.86)41.8%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETApple-0.50 ATR (302.09)39.7%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETApple+0.50 ATR (310.91)41.8%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETS&P 500 ETF (SPY)-0.50 ATR (772.31)42.0%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETS&P 500 ETF (SPY)+0.50 ATR (780.79)40.8%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETWTI Crude-0.50 ATR (80.30)30.1%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETWTI Crude+0.50 ATR (84.78)29.0%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETGold-0.50 ATR (4405.69)42.5%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETGold+0.50 ATR (4477.71)36.9%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETE-mini Russell 2000-0.50 ATR (3042.27)21.6%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETE-mini Russell 2000+0.50 ATR (3086.73)21.7%LIVE
  • 09:30 ETE-mini Dow-0.50 ATR (53296.54)21.6%LIVE

Frozen columns (date, symbol, level, predicted probability, price at freeze) are written once, before the session opens, and never edited — only the outcome is filled in after the close.

Graveyard

Anyone can publish a winning backtest. We also publish the ideas our own research killed. Lookahead. Confounding. Failed placebo tests. No edge.

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Every trading morning: the day's level odds, what the coming session can still do, and where the data says there's no directional call at all. Frozen before the open, scored after the close.

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Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →