foxalgoHow likely is price to touch that level today?
We measure it — millions of historical bars, sector-stratified, held-out validated — and publish the number with its sample size. As of 15:41 ET.
Fitted on 2006-2017 data. Scored on every session since.
103 months, 2018–2026-07, 13,278 market-sessions at 09:30 ET, +0.5 ATR, six futures markets. The predicted line was fixed once using data through 2017 and never re-fit — nothing after that touched the numbers. See how to read this →
Including the months it fit worse — March 2020 is right there. Hover any bar for the exact numbers.
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Markets now
Quote, position within today's realized range, and today's width regime — descriptive, not a signal. Click through to a market for the full detail page.
Futures
| market | last quote | position in range | regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini S&P 500 | not cached yet | — | not cached yet |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100 | not cached yet | — | not cached yet |
| E-mini Dow | not cached yet | — | not cached yet |
| E-mini Russell 2000 | not cached yet | — | not cached yet |
| Gold | not cached yet | — | not cached yet |
| WTI Crude | not cached yet | — | not cached yet |
FX
Stocks
| market | last quote | position in range | regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | 776.34 | 27% | not measured |
| Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) | 731.07 | 45% | not measured |
| Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) | 305.09 | 96% | not measured |
| Apple | 305.93 | 51% | not measured |
| Microsoft | 495.4 | 24% | not measured |
| Nvidia | 225.16 | 22% | not measured |
| Amazon | 262.65 | 7% | not measured |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | 345.9 | 24% | not measured |
| Meta Platforms | 589.85 | 4% | not measured |
| Tesla | 342.27 | 44% | not measured |
| AMD | 514.39 | 99% | not measured |
| Netflix | 78.16 | 41% | not measured |
Crypto
Stocks: RTH session only (09:30–16:00 ET) — regime column reads "—" because no first-hit grid exists yet for stocks, so there is no day-width regime measurement.
Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.
Crypto trades 24/7 — regime column reads "—" because there's no first-hit grid for crypto yet either. Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
What a number on this site means
Every rate ships with its base rate, sample size and confidence interval — how to read this →
Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.
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