Microsoft (MSFT)

last quote 495.40 · as of 16:26 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-14T20:00:01.000Z)

Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

today's range so far

6.0850

high 500.01 / low 493.92 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

24.2%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.9550

open 496.36

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark, next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	499.75	9.8%	491.05	13.0%	4,354
0.5	504.10	1.0%	486.70	1.1%	4,354
0.75	508.45	0.1%	482.35	0.3%	4,354
1	512.80	0.1%	478.00	0.1%	4,354
1.5	521.51	0.0%	469.29	0.0%	4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Microsoft

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%

predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483

20-40%

predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961

40-60%

predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144

60-80%

predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510

80-100%

predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-07-31	457.94	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-03	484.35	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-04	489.64	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-05	505.33	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-06	497.47	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-07	508.21	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-10	512.19	1.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-11	513.36	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	508.75	1.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	501.95	1.0%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →

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