EUR/USD (EURUSD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 17:29 ET

last quote 1.1678 · as of 01:55 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T21:29:54.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / EURUSD CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 1.1678

EURUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	1.17	62.5%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	1.17	62.1%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	1.17	35.0%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	1.17	35.1%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	1.17	17.8%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	1.16	18.2%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	1.17	8.5%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	1.16	8.8%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	1.18	2.2%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	1.16	2.2%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0042

high 1.1715 / low 1.1673 · n=90 bars

position in today's range

12.5%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0010

open 1.1688

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.779 → narrow (n = 13,287)

narrow < 1.148, typical < 1.649, else wide — based on a partial-session window (90 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / EURUSD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	22.3%	22.3%	8,520
0.25	2.8%	2.9%	8,520
0.5	0.6%	0.6%	8,520

Measured from the 1320-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 915m).

FOXALGO / EURUSD INSTRUMENT 01

EURUSD · P(touch within next 915m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 915m) up	down level	P(touch within next 915m) down	n
0.25	1.1692	62.5%	1.1664	62.1%	8,522
0.5	1.1705	35.0%	1.1651	35.1%	8,522
0.75	1.1719	17.8%	1.1637	18.2%	8,522
1	1.1732	8.5%	1.1624	8.8%	8,522
1.5	1.1760	2.2%	1.1596	2.2%	8,522

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for EUR/USD

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-09	1.1583	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-10	1.1574	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-11	1.1571	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	1.1555	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	1.1560	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-16	1.1602	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-17	1.1612	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-18	1.1604	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-19	1.1701	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-20	1.1715	35.0%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →