foxalgo.io

E-mini Dow (YM)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:59 ET

last quote 53353.00 · as of 01:50 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:59:52.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / YM CANDLESTICK
TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 53353

YM · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table
levelpriceP(touch)status
+0.25 ATR53481.3273.8%not touched yet
-0.25 ATR53224.6870.3%not touched yet
+0.50 ATR53609.6448.8%not touched yet
-0.50 ATR53096.3647.8%not touched yet
+0.75 ATR53737.9629.9%not touched yet
-0.75 ATR52968.0431.6%not touched yet
+1.00 ATR53866.2917.7%not touched yet
-1.00 ATR52839.7120.6%not touched yet
+1.50 ATR54122.935.7%not touched yet
-1.50 ATR52583.078.4%not touched yet
today's range so far
561.00
high 53418.00 / low 52857.00 · n=68 bars
position in today's range
88.4%
0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal
change from open
+478.00
open 52875.00

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 1.093 → typical (n = 11,559)

narrow < 0.826, typical < 1.313, else wide — based on a partial-session window (68 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / YM INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)P(touch up, next 60m)P(touch down, next 60m)n
0.166.6%63.7%11,559
0.2530.7%32.4%11,559
0.56.6%9.3%11,559

Measured from the 990-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close).

FOXALGO / YM INSTRUMENT 01

YM · P(touch by close)

0%25%50%75%100%0.250.50.7511.5distance from current price (ATR multiples)
distance (ATR)up levelP(touch by close) updown levelP(touch by close) downn
0.2553481.3273.8%53224.6870.3%11,490
0.553609.6448.8%53096.3647.8%11,490
0.7553737.9629.9%52968.0431.6%11,490
153866.2917.7%52839.7120.6%11,490
1.554122.935.7%52583.078.4%11,490

Brackets

What-if take-profit / stop-loss combinations, long side, 0 minutes after the open. Not a recommendation.

TPSLP(TP first)P(SL first)P(neither)n
0.5 ATR0.25 ATR33.1%63.8%3.1%10,217
0.5 ATR0.5 ATR46.5%43.4%10.2%10,217
1 ATR0.5 ATR21.3%51.0%27.7%10,217

See full brackets page for more combinations.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for E-mini Dow

index futures

MAE: 0.73 pp · n = 67,669,080

0-20%
predicted 6.7% · realized 6.6% · n = 33,012,676
20-40%
predicted 28.6% · realized 28.3% · n = 10,690,116
40-60%
predicted 47.0% · realized 46.4% · n = 7,698,743
60-80%
predicted 69.1% · realized 68.5% · n = 9,505,767
80-100%
predicted 85.6% · realized 85.2% · n = 6,761,778

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

datelevel (open + 0.5 ATR)P(touch)result
2026-08-0754414.0048.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1054495.8948.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1154399.8648.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1254254.6448.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1354239.6848.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1454294.4648.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1754108.7548.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1853804.0748.8%not touched ✗
2026-08-1953671.0748.8%touched ✓
2026-08-2053781.0448.8%not touched ✗

Live frozen record

datelevelpredicted poutcomeprice at freezerealized high/low
2026-08-21+0.5 ATR → 53367.2539.7%touched5318353418 / 53132
2026-08-21-0.5 ATR → 52998.7540.6%not touched5318353418 / 53132
2026-08-20+0.5 ATR → 53323.9339.7%not touched5313353288 / 52827
2026-08-20-0.5 ATR → 52942.0740.6%touched5313353288 / 52827
2026-08-19+0.5 ATR → 53851.6139.7%not touched5365053780 / 53481
2026-08-19-0.5 ATR → 53448.3940.6%not touched5365053780 / 53481
2026-08-18+0.5 ATR → 53674.9639.7%not touched5345153541 / 53311
2026-08-18-0.5 ATR → 53227.0440.6%not touched5345153541 / 53311
2026-08-17+0.5 ATR → 53801.3239.7%not touched5356953719 / 53464
2026-08-17-0.5 ATR → 53336.6840.6%not touched5356953719 / 53464
2026-08-14+0.5 ATR → 54111.8239.7%not touched5386553956 / 53745
2026-08-14-0.5 ATR → 53618.1840.6%not touched5386553956 / 53745
2026-08-13+0.5 ATR → 54269.9639.7%not touched5402354149 / 53715
2026-08-13-0.5 ATR → 53776.0440.6%touched5402354149 / 53715
2026-08-12+0.5 ATR → 54302.0439.7%not touched5405154081 / 53830
2026-08-12-0.5 ATR → 53799.9640.6%not touched5405154081 / 53830
2026-08-11+0.5 ATR → 54404.2139.7%not touched5415854336 / 53855
2026-08-11-0.5 ATR → 53911.7940.6%touched5415854336 / 53855
2026-08-10+0.5 ATR → 54294.4339.7%not touched5403854167 / 53952
2026-08-10-0.5 ATR → 53781.5740.6%not touched5403854167 / 53952

See all verified findings →