foxalgoS&P 500 ETF (SPY) (SPY)
last quote 765.72 · as of 01:49 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:00:00.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.
SPY · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 767.32 | 66.8% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 764.12 | 66.5% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 768.93 | 40.8% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 762.51 | 42.0% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 770.53 | 21.5% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 760.91 | 25.7% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 772.14 | 9.5% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 759.30 | 14.3% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 775.35 | 1.9% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 756.09 | 3.8% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 60.0% | 62.7% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 20.5% | 25.5% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 4.4% | 5.7% | 1,861 |
Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).
SPY · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up | down level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 767.32 | 66.8% | 764.12 | 66.5% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 768.93 | 40.8% | 762.51 | 42.0% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 770.53 | 21.5% | 760.91 | 25.7% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 772.14 | 9.5% | 759.30 | 14.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 775.35 | 1.9% | 756.09 | 3.8% | 1,861 |
Brackets
Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
ETF
MAE: 1.09 pp · n = 7,475,484
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 775.65 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | 777.17 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 778.97 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 779.21 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 779.09 | 40.8% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 782.78 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-17 | 780.19 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-18 | 772.62 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-19 | 774.00 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-20 | 769.32 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.