Netflix (NFLX)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 62.15 · as of 19:52 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-13T21:00:00.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / NFLX CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 62.15

NFLX · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	62.61	7.1%	○ not touched
-0.25 ATR	61.69	7.5%	○ not touched
+0.50 ATR	63.07	0.6%	○ not touched
-0.50 ATR	61.23	0.6%	○ not touched
+0.75 ATR	63.53	0.0%	○ not touched
-0.75 ATR	60.77	0.1%	○ not touched
+1.00 ATR	63.98	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.00 ATR	60.32	0.0%	○ not touched
+1.50 ATR	64.90	0.0%	○ not touched
-1.50 ATR	59.40	0.0%	○ not touched

today's range so far

1.8250

high 63.95 / low 62.13 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

1.4%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.7000

open 62.85

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / NFLX INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	48.9%	59.9%	1,152
0.25	13.9%	18.3%	1,152
0.5	2.2%	1.8%	1,152

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / NFLX INSTRUMENT 01

NFLX · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	62.61	7.1%	61.69	7.5%	1,152
0.5	63.07	0.6%	61.23	0.6%	1,152
0.75	63.53	0.0%	60.77	0.1%	1,152
1	63.98	0.0%	60.32	0.0%	1,152
1.5	64.90	0.0%	59.40	0.0%	1,152

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Netflix

high-beta stocks

MAE: 1.04 pp · n = 5,164,560

0-20%

predicted 3.5% · realized 3.7% · n = 3,484,735

20-40%

predicted 29.6% · realized 29.1% · n = 551,828

40-60%

predicted 50.5% · realized 49.9% · n = 451,182

60-80%

predicted 70.6% · realized 69.8% · n = 527,136

80-100%

predicted 83.0% · realized 82.6% · n = 149,679

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-10-30	63.71	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-02	63.26	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-03	63.74	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-04	65.60	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-11-05	68.37	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-06	64.94	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-09	64.40	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-10	64.52	0.6%	not touched ✗
2026-11-11	63.78	0.6%	touched ✓
2026-11-12	65.19	0.6%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →