foxalgoUSD/CAD (USDCAD)
last quote 1.4235 · as of 19:08 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-09-30T23:00:51.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
USDCAD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 1.42 | 66.3% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 1.42 | 65.6% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 1.43 | 39.7% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 1.42 | 38.7% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 1.43 | 21.9% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 1.42 | 21.6% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 1.43 | 10.9% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 1.42 | 11.8% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 1.43 | 2.8% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 1.41 | 3.0% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.000 → narrow (n = 13,098)
narrow < 0.078, typical < 0.126, else wide — based on a partial-session window (1 bars). See methodology.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 16.0% | 17.5% | 8,516 |
| 0.25 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 8,516 |
| 0.5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 8,516 |
Measured from the 0-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1320m).
USDCAD · P(touch within next 1320m)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 1320m) up | down level | P(touch within next 1320m) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 1.4250 | 66.3% | 1.4220 | 65.6% | 8,522 |
| 0.5 | 1.4265 | 39.7% | 1.4205 | 38.7% | 8,522 |
| 0.75 | 1.4280 | 21.9% | 1.4190 | 21.6% | 8,522 |
| 1 | 1.4295 | 11.0% | 1.4175 | 11.8% | 8,522 |
| 1.5 | 1.4325 | 2.8% | 1.4145 | 3.0% | 8,522 |
Brackets
Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for USD/CAD
FX majors
MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 1.4024 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-17 | 1.4027 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.4029 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-21 | 1.4066 | 39.7% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-09-22 | 1.4100 | 39.7% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-09-23 | 1.4136 | 39.7% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.4179 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-27 | 1.4187 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-28 | 1.4207 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-09-29 | 1.4221 | 39.7% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.