foxalgoUSD/CAD (USDCAD)
last quote 1.3764 · as of 01:51 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-22T04:21:12.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
USDCAD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 1.38 | 62.5% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 1.37 | 62.1% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 1.38 | 35.0% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 1.37 | 35.1% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 1.38 | 17.8% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 1.37 | 18.2% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 1.38 | 8.5% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 1.37 | 8.8% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 1.39 | 2.2% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 1.37 | 2.2% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.789 → narrow (n = 13,287)
narrow < 1.148, typical < 1.649, else wide — based on a partial-session window (90 bars). See methodology.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 22.3% | 22.3% | 8,520 |
| 0.25 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 8,520 |
| 0.5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 8,520 |
Measured from the 1320-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 915m).
USDCAD · P(touch within next 915m)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 915m) up | down level | P(touch within next 915m) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 1.3782 | 62.5% | 1.3746 | 62.1% | 8,522 |
| 0.5 | 1.3800 | 35.0% | 1.3728 | 35.1% | 8,522 |
| 0.75 | 1.3817 | 17.8% | 1.3711 | 18.2% | 8,522 |
| 1 | 1.3835 | 8.5% | 1.3693 | 8.8% | 8,522 |
| 1.5 | 1.3871 | 2.2% | 1.3657 | 2.2% | 8,522 |
Brackets
Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for USD/CAD
FX majors
MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 1.3983 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | 1.3964 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 1.3951 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 1.3971 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 1.3957 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-16 | 1.3901 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-17 | 1.3901 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-18 | 1.3930 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-19 | 1.3841 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-20 | 1.3814 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.