NZD/USD (NZDUSD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 18:43 ET

last quote 0.5634 · as of 19:09 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-09-30T22:43:58.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / NZDUSD CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 0.5634

NZDUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	0.56	66.3%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	0.56	65.6%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	0.57	39.7%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	0.56	38.7%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	0.57	21.9%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	0.56	21.6%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	0.57	10.9%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	0.56	11.8%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	0.57	2.8%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	0.56	3.0%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0033

high 0.5665 / low 0.5632 · n=96 bars

position in today's range

6.4%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0004

open 0.5638

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.773 → narrow (n = 13,287)

narrow < 1.153, typical < 1.655, else wide — based on a partial-session window (96 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / NZDUSD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	19.1%	18.1%	8,521
0.25	1.6%	1.8%	8,521
0.5	0.3%	0.2%	8,521

Measured from the 1380-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1320m).

FOXALGO / NZDUSD INSTRUMENT 01

NZDUSD · P(touch within next 1320m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1320m) up	down level	P(touch within next 1320m) down	n
0.25	0.5645	66.3%	0.5623	65.6%	8,522
0.5	0.5655	39.7%	0.5613	38.7%	8,522
0.75	0.5666	21.9%	0.5602	21.6%	8,522
1	0.5677	11.0%	0.5591	11.8%	8,522
1.5	0.5698	2.8%	0.5570	3.0%	8,522

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for NZD/USD

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-09-16	0.5747	39.7%	touched ✓
2026-09-17	0.5752	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-20	0.5747	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-21	0.5736	39.7%	touched ✓
2026-09-22	0.5746	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-23	0.5699	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-24	0.5679	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-27	0.5674	39.7%	touched ✓
2026-09-28	0.5686	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-29	0.5662	39.7%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →