NZD/USD (NZDUSD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 14:29 ET

last quote 0.5525 · as of 21:56 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-11-14T19:29:47.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / NZDUSD CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 0.5525

NZDUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	0.55	0.4%	✓ touched
-0.25 ATR	0.55	0.3%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	0.56	0.1%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	0.55	0.1%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	0.56	0.0%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	0.55	0.0%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	0.56	0.0%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	0.55	0.0%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	0.56	0.0%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	0.54	0.0%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0026

high 0.5548 / low 0.5523 · n=91 bars

position in today's range

8.8%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0017

open 0.5542

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.428 → narrow (n = 13,287)

narrow < 1.150, typical < 1.652, else wide — based on a partial-session window (91 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / NZDUSD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	18.0%	17.4%	8,520
0.25	1.8%	2.0%	8,520
0.5	0.3%	0.3%	8,520

Measured from the 1350-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 15m).

FOXALGO / NZDUSD INSTRUMENT 01

NZDUSD · P(touch within next 15m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 15m) up	down level	P(touch within next 15m) down	n
0.25	0.5540	0.4%	0.5510	0.3%	8,521
0.5	0.5555	0.1%	0.5495	0.1%	8,521
0.75	0.5570	0.0%	0.5480	0.0%	8,521
1	0.5585	0.0%	0.5465	0.0%	8,521
1.5	0.5615	0.0%	0.5435	0.0%	8,521

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for NZD/USD

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-11-01	0.5647	0.1%	not touched ✗
2026-11-02	0.5643	0.1%	not touched ✗
2026-11-03	0.5615	0.1%	touched ✓
2026-11-04	0.5648	0.1%	touched ✓
2026-11-05	0.5617	0.1%	not touched ✗
2026-11-08	0.5582	0.1%	touched ✓
2026-11-09	0.5660	0.1%	not touched ✗
2026-11-10	0.5635	0.1%	not touched ✗
2026-11-11	0.5592	0.1%	not touched ✗
2026-11-12	0.5574	0.1%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →