NZD/USD (NZDUSD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 00:49 ET

last quote 0.5978 · as of 01:54 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-22T04:49:56.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / NZDUSD CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 0.5978

NZDUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	0.60	62.5%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	0.60	62.1%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	0.60	35.0%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	0.60	35.1%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	0.60	17.8%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	0.59	18.2%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	0.60	8.5%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	0.59	8.8%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	0.60	2.2%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	0.59	2.2%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0041

high 0.5990 / low 0.5949 · n=91 bars

position in today's range

70.9%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+0.0029

open 0.5949

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.868 → narrow (n = 13,287)

narrow < 1.150, typical < 1.652, else wide — based on a partial-session window (91 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / NZDUSD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	18.0%	17.4%	8,520
0.25	1.8%	2.0%	8,520
0.5	0.3%	0.3%	8,520

Measured from the 1350-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 915m).

FOXALGO / NZDUSD INSTRUMENT 01

NZDUSD · P(touch within next 915m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 915m) up	down level	P(touch within next 915m) down	n
0.25	0.5990	62.5%	0.5966	62.1%	8,522
0.5	0.6001	35.0%	0.5955	35.1%	8,522
0.75	0.6013	17.8%	0.5943	18.2%	8,522
1	0.6025	8.5%	0.5931	8.8%	8,522
1.5	0.6048	2.2%	0.5908	2.2%	8,522

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for NZD/USD

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-09	0.5911	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-10	0.5911	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-11	0.5902	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	0.5881	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	0.5876	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-16	0.5916	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-17	0.5930	35.0%	not touched ✗
2026-08-18	0.5896	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-19	0.5959	35.0%	touched ✓
2026-08-20	0.5978	35.0%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →