foxalgoRussell 2000 ETF (IWM) (IWM)
last quote 299.96 · as of 01:49 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:00:00.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.
IWM · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 300.81 | 66.8% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 299.11 | 66.5% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 301.66 | 40.8% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 298.26 | 42.0% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 302.51 | 21.5% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 297.41 | 25.7% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 303.35 | 9.5% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 296.57 | 14.3% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 305.05 | 1.9% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 294.87 | 3.8% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 60.0% | 62.7% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 20.5% | 25.5% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 4.4% | 5.7% | 1,861 |
Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).
IWM · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up | down level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 300.81 | 66.8% | 299.11 | 66.5% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 301.66 | 40.8% | 298.26 | 42.0% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 302.51 | 21.5% | 297.41 | 25.7% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 303.35 | 9.5% | 296.57 | 14.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 305.05 | 1.9% | 294.87 | 3.8% | 1,861 |
Brackets
Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
ETF
MAE: 1.09 pp · n = 7,475,484
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 302.62 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | 302.67 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 303.02 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 305.07 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 306.05 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 305.24 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-17 | 305.85 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-18 | 304.29 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-19 | 304.67 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-20 | 301.02 | 40.8% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.