USD/JPY (USDJPY)

last quote 159.27 · as of 16:33 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-16T20:30:14.000Z)

Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.

today's range so far

0.9150

high 159.51 / low 158.60 · n=89 bars

position in today's range

74.1%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.1850

open 159.46

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.513 → narrow (n = 13,287)

narrow < 1.145, typical < 1.647, else wide — based on a partial-session window (89 bars). See methodology.

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	22.3%	22.3%	8,520
0.25	2.8%	2.9%	8,520
0.5	0.6%	0.6%	8,520

Measured from the 1320-minute mark, next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m).

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1440m) up	down level	P(touch within next 1440m) down	n
0.25	159.72	67.7%	158.83	67.0%	8,516
0.5	160.17	40.3%	158.38	39.6%	8,516
0.75	160.61	22.2%	157.93	22.1%	8,516
1	161.06	11.3%	157.49	12.1%	8,516
1.5	161.95	3.0%	156.60	3.2%	8,516

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for USD/JPY

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-02	158.32	40.3%	not touched ✗
2026-08-03	158.31	40.3%	not touched ✗
2026-08-04	158.52	40.3%	not touched ✗
2026-08-05	158.45	40.3%	touched ✓
2026-08-06	159.25	40.3%	not touched ✗
2026-08-09	158.75	40.3%	touched ✓
2026-08-10	160.03	40.3%	not touched ✗
2026-08-11	160.18	40.3%	not touched ✗
2026-08-12	160.21	40.3%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	160.31	40.3%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →

Get USD/JPY and every tracked market, every morning, before the open.