USD/JPY (USDJPY)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 19:00 ET

last quote 157.42 · as of 19:06 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-09-30T23:00:49.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / USDJPY CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 157.421

USDJPY · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	157.77	66.3%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	157.07	65.6%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	158.12	39.7%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	156.73	38.7%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	158.46	21.9%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	156.38	21.6%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	158.81	10.9%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	156.03	11.8%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	159.51	2.8%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	155.33	3.0%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0000

high 157.42 / low 157.42 · n=1 bars

position in today's range

—

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0000

open 157.42

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.000 → narrow (n = 13,098)

narrow < 0.078, typical < 0.126, else wide — based on a partial-session window (1 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / USDJPY INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	16.0%	17.5%	8,516
0.25	1.9%	2.0%	8,516
0.5	0.4%	0.4%	8,516

Measured from the 0-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1320m).

FOXALGO / USDJPY INSTRUMENT 01

USDJPY · P(touch within next 1320m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1320m) up	down level	P(touch within next 1320m) down	n
0.25	157.77	66.3%	157.07	65.6%	8,522
0.5	158.12	39.7%	156.73	38.7%	8,522
0.75	158.46	21.9%	156.38	21.6%	8,522
1	158.81	11.0%	156.03	11.8%	8,522
1.5	159.51	2.8%	155.33	3.0%	8,522

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for USD/JPY

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-09-16	156.96	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-17	157.10	39.7%	touched ✓
2026-09-20	157.99	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-21	158.37	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-22	158.45	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-23	159.11	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-24	159.60	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-27	158.19	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-28	158.06	39.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-29	158.12	39.7%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →