Daily Probability Map

SNAPSHOT 02:46 ETLONDON SESSION

Touch probability for every tracked market, updated every 15 minutes. Hover a cell for detail, click a market's row to open its drawer.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Markets tracked

31 / 32

Levels resolved today

110

Still live

Last update

SNAPSHOT 02:45 ET

Futures Stocks FX Crypto

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked futures market.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET session open — the feed's available session-range window may not start at exactly that instant, see methodology.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
E-mini S&P 500last 7691.25	↑89.7% ↓87.0% ✓90% ✓87% +2.7pp	↑73.8% ↓70.3% ✓74% ○70% +3.5pp	↑48.8% ↓47.8% ✓49% ○48% +1.0pp	↑29.9% ↓31.6% ✓30% ○32% -1.7pp	↑17.7% ↓20.6% ○18% ○21% -2.9pp	↑5.7% ↓8.4% ○6% ○8% -2.7pp
E-mini Nasdaq 100last 29387.75	↑89.7% ↓87.0% ✓90% ✓87% +2.7pp	↑73.8% ↓70.3% ✓74% ✓70% +3.5pp	↑48.8% ↓47.8% ✓49% ○48% +1.0pp	↑29.9% ↓31.6% ○30% ○32% -1.7pp	↑17.7% ↓20.6% ○18% ○21% -2.9pp	↑5.7% ↓8.4% ○6% ○8% -2.7pp
E-mini Dowlast 53353.00	↑89.7% ↓87.0% ✓90% ○87% +2.7pp	↑73.8% ↓70.3% ✓74% ○70% +3.5pp	↑48.8% ↓47.8% ✓49% ○48% +1.0pp	↑29.9% ↓31.6% ✓30% ○32% -1.7pp	↑17.7% ↓20.6% ✓18% ○21% -2.9pp	↑5.7% ↓8.4% ○6% ○8% -2.7pp
E-mini Russell 2000last 3022.10	↑89.7% ↓87.0% ✓90% ✓87% +2.7pp	↑73.8% ↓70.3% ✓74% ○70% +3.5pp	↑48.8% ↓47.8% ✓49% ○48% +1.0pp	↑29.9% ↓31.6% ○30% ○32% -1.7pp	↑17.7% ↓20.6% ○18% ○21% -2.9pp	↑5.7% ↓8.4% ○6% ○8% -2.7pp
Goldlast 4680.60	↑88.2% ↓90.2% ✓88% ✓90% -2.0pp	↑73.6% ↓76.9% ✓74% ○77% -3.3pp	↑52.1% ↓57.2% ✓52% ○57% -5.0pp	↑36.1% ↓40.4% ✓36% ○40% -4.3pp	↑23.8% ↓27.4% ✓24% ○27% -3.6pp	↑10.0% ↓11.9% ✓10% ○12% -1.9pp
WTI Crudelast 87.06	↑87.9% ↓89.4% ✓88% ✓89% -1.5pp	↑72.5% ↓74.7% ✓73% ✓75% -2.2pp	↑50.2% ↓52.7% ✓50% ○53% -2.5pp	↑33.4% ↓35.7% ○33% ○36% -2.3pp	↑20.8% ↓22.4% ○21% ○22% -1.6pp	↑7.1% ↓8.4% ○7% ○8% -1.3pp

E-mini S&P 500GoldWTI Crude

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

E-mini S&P 500 · last quote 7691.25

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	89.7%	87.0%	11,490
0.25	73.8%	70.3%	11,490
0.5	48.8%	47.8%	11,490
0.75	29.9%	31.6%	11,490
1	17.7%	20.6%	11,490
1.5	5.7%	8.4%	11,490

E-mini Nasdaq 100 · last quote 29387.75

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	89.7%	87.0%	11,490
0.25	73.8%	70.3%	11,490
0.5	48.8%	47.8%	11,490
0.75	29.9%	31.6%	11,490
1	17.7%	20.6%	11,490
1.5	5.7%	8.4%	11,490

E-mini Dow · last quote 53353.00

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	89.7%	87.0%	11,490
0.25	73.8%	70.3%	11,490
0.5	48.8%	47.8%	11,490
0.75	29.9%	31.6%	11,490
1	17.7%	20.6%	11,490
1.5	5.7%	8.4%	11,490

E-mini Russell 2000 · last quote 3022.10

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	89.7%	87.0%	11,490
0.25	73.8%	70.3%	11,490
0.5	48.8%	47.8%	11,490
0.75	29.9%	31.6%	11,490
1	17.7%	20.6%	11,490
1.5	5.7%	8.4%	11,490

Gold · last quote 4680.60

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	88.2%	90.2%	9,580
0.25	73.6%	76.9%	9,580
0.5	52.1%	57.2%	9,580
0.75	36.1%	40.4%	9,580
1	23.8%	27.4%	9,580
1.5	10.0%	11.9%	9,580

WTI Crude · last quote 87.06

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	87.9%	89.4%	9,084
0.25	72.5%	74.7%	9,084
0.5	50.2%	52.7%	9,084
0.75	33.4%	35.7%	9,084
1	20.8%	22.4%	9,084
1.5	7.1%	8.4%	9,084

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked stocks market.

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET RTH open, matching the feed's session window for exchange-listed equities.

Known gaps: No first-hit grid exists for stocks — brackets.json and width_bounds.json have no stock coverage; not yet measured.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)last 765.72	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% ✓85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ✓67% ✓66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% ○41% ○42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% ○22% ○26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% ○10% ○14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% ○2% ○4% -1.8pp
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)last 713.44	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ○86% ✓85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ○67% ✓66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% ○41% ✓42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% ○22% ○26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% ○10% ○14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% ○2% ○4% -1.8pp
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)last 299.96	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% ✓85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ○67% ✓66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% ○41% ✓42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% ○22% ○26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% ○10% ○14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% ○2% ○4% -1.8pp
Applelast 309.35	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ○87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ○68% ✓67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ○42% ✓40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ○24% ✓22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% ○12% ○11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% ○3% ○3% -0.1pp
Microsoftlast 483.24	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% ○67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% ○40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ○24% ○22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% ○12% ○11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% ○3% ○3% -0.1pp
Nvidialast 214.72	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ○87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ○68% ✓67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ○42% ✓40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ○24% ○22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% ○12% ○11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% ○3% ○3% -0.1pp
Amazonlast 258.63	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ○87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ○68% ✓67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ○42% ✓40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ○24% ○22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% ○12% ○11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% ○3% ○3% -0.1pp
Alphabet (GOOGL)last 344.82	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% ○67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ○42% ○40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ○24% ○22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% ○12% ○11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% ○3% ○3% -0.1pp
Meta Platformslast 549.90	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% ○67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ○42% ○40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ○24% ○22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% ○12% ○11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% ○3% ○3% -0.1pp
Teslalast 362.86	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ✓67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% ✓40% ○41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% ✓23% ○21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% ✓13% ○11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% ✓4% ○2% +1.5pp
AMDlast 473.25	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ○86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ○67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% ○40% ✓41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% ○23% ○21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% ○13% ○11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% ○4% ○2% +1.5pp
Netflixlast 79.59	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ○67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% ○40% ✓41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% ○23% ○21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% ○13% ○11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% ○4% ○2% +1.5pp

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)AppleNvidia

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · last quote 765.72

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) · last quote 713.44

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) · last quote 299.96

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Apple · last quote 309.35

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Microsoft · last quote 483.24

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Nvidia · last quote 214.72

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Amazon · last quote 258.63

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Alphabet (GOOGL) · last quote 344.82

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Meta Platforms · last quote 549.90

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Tesla · last quote 362.86

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

AMD · last quote 473.25

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

Netflix · last quote 79.59

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked fx market.

Live touch/not-touched status isn't shown for FX: the data feed has no reliable 17:00 ET forex-day session open to anchor against, so we show probability only rather than guess.

Known gaps: XAU is not present in touch_surface_fx_v1 (scopes available: fx_majors, fx_cross, all_fx, cfd_ostatni) — not yet measured.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
EUR/USDlast 1.1678	↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp	↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp	↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp	↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp	↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp	↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp
GBP/USDlast 1.3648	↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp	↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp	↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp	↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp	↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp	↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp
USD/JPYlast 158.94	↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp	↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp	↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp	↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp	↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp	↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp
AUD/USDlast 0.7175	↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp	↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp	↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp	↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp	↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp	↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp
USD/CADlast 1.3764	↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp	↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp	↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp	↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp	↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp	↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp
USD/CHFlast 0.8008	↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp	↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp	↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp	↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp	↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp	↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp
NZD/USDlast 0.5978	↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp	↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp	↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp	↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp	↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp	↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp
Gold spot (XAU/USD)	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —

EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPY

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

EUR/USD · last quote 1.1678

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	82.7%	8,521
0.25	61.9%	61.2%	8,521
0.5	34.0%	34.2%	8,521
0.75	16.8%	17.3%	8,521
1	8.2%	8.2%	8,521
1.5	2.0%	2.1%	8,521

GBP/USD · last quote 1.3648

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	82.7%	8,521
0.25	61.9%	61.2%	8,521
0.5	34.0%	34.2%	8,521
0.75	16.8%	17.3%	8,521
1	8.2%	8.2%	8,521
1.5	2.0%	2.1%	8,521

USD/JPY · last quote 158.94

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	82.7%	8,521
0.25	61.9%	61.2%	8,521
0.5	34.0%	34.2%	8,521
0.75	16.8%	17.3%	8,521
1	8.2%	8.2%	8,521
1.5	2.0%	2.1%	8,521

AUD/USD · last quote 0.7175

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	82.7%	8,521
0.25	61.9%	61.2%	8,521
0.5	34.0%	34.2%	8,521
0.75	16.8%	17.3%	8,521
1	8.2%	8.2%	8,521
1.5	2.0%	2.1%	8,521

USD/CAD · last quote 1.3764

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	82.7%	8,521
0.25	61.9%	61.2%	8,521
0.5	34.0%	34.2%	8,521
0.75	16.8%	17.3%	8,521
1	8.2%	8.2%	8,521
1.5	2.0%	2.1%	8,521

USD/CHF · last quote 0.8008

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	82.7%	8,521
0.25	61.9%	61.2%	8,521
0.5	34.0%	34.2%	8,521
0.75	16.8%	17.3%	8,521
1	8.2%	8.2%	8,521
1.5	2.0%	2.1%	8,521

NZD/USD · last quote 0.5978

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.1%	82.7%	8,521
0.25	61.9%	61.2%	8,521
0.5	34.0%	34.2%	8,521
0.75	16.8%	17.3%	8,521
1	8.2%	8.2%	8,521
1.5	2.0%	2.1%	8,521

Gold spot (XAU/USD)

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.25	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.75	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked crypto market.

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at 00:00 UTC (today's day type: weekend) — the feed's session-range window may not start exactly at that instant, see methodology. Weekends trade a measurably different, thinner regime, so weekday and weekend use separate probability curves.

Known gaps: day_type=vse (pooled weekday+weekend) is not served — weekday and weekend are measurably different regimes, so the site must always pick the row matching today's UTC day type. Cells flagged rare in the source parquet (p<0.01 or p>0.99; 21.7% of all rows) are dropped entirely, not served — they render as 'not yet measured' the same as any other missing combo.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR
Bitcoinlast 77431.39	↑76.5% ↓80.3% ✓77% ✓80% -3.8pp	↑49.9% ↓55.7% ✓50% ✓56% -5.9pp	↑21.7% ↓24.8% 22% ✓25% -3.1pp
Ethereumlast 2433.66	↑76.5% ↓80.3% ✓77% ✓80% -3.8pp	↑49.9% ↓55.7% 50% ✓56% -5.9pp	↑21.7% ↓24.8% 22% ✓25% -3.1pp
Solanalast 94.73	↑80.2% ↓79.7% ✓80% ✓80% +0.5pp	↑53.4% ↓54.6% ✓53% ✓55% -1.1pp	↑25.2% ↓25.5% ✓25% ✓26% -0.3pp
Avalanchelast 7.6860	↑80.2% ↓79.7% ✓80% ✓80% +0.5pp	↑53.4% ↓54.6% ✓53% ✓55% -1.1pp	↑25.2% ↓25.5% ✓25% ✓26% -0.3pp
Chainlinklast 11.89	↑80.2% ↓79.7% ✓80% ✓80% +0.5pp	↑53.4% ↓54.6% ✓53% ✓55% -1.1pp	↑25.2% ↓25.5% ✓25% ✓26% -0.3pp
Dogecoinlast 0.0930	↑80.2% ↓79.7% ✓80% ✓80% +0.5pp	↑53.4% ↓54.6% ✓53% ✓55% -1.1pp	↑25.2% ↓25.5% ✓25% ✓26% -0.3pp

BitcoinEthereumSolana

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

Bitcoin · last quote 77431.39

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	76.5%	80.3%	682
0.25	49.9%	55.7%	682
0.5	21.7%	24.8%	682

Ethereum · last quote 2433.66

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	76.5%	80.3%	682
0.25	49.9%	55.7%	682
0.5	21.7%	24.8%	682

Solana · last quote 94.73

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.2%	79.7%	1,056
0.25	53.4%	54.6%	1,056
0.5	25.2%	25.5%	1,056

Avalanche · last quote 7.6860

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.2%	79.7%	1,056
0.25	53.4%	54.6%	1,056
0.5	25.2%	25.5%	1,056

Chainlink · last quote 11.89

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.2%	79.7%	1,056
0.25	53.4%	54.6%	1,056
0.5	25.2%	25.5%	1,056

Dogecoin · last quote 0.0930

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	80.2%	79.7%	1,056
0.25	53.4%	54.6%	1,056
0.5	25.2%	25.5%	1,056

How to read this map: each cell is P(price touches ±d ATR from the session anchor before that horizon ends), split into an up half and a down half. Live status compares that level against today's actual high/low from the data feed — a checkmark means it already happened today, a pulsing dot means the session is still running and it hasn't happened yet, an open circle means the session closed without it happening. Asymmetry is P(up) minus P(down) in percentage points — a directional imbalance in how often each side gets touched, not a trade signal.

Index futures, stock sector groups (ETFs / mega-caps / high-beta) and crypto groups (BTC & ETH / alt L1s) share one probability surface each — identical numbers within the same group are by construction, not a bug.