Gold spot (XAU/USD) (XAUUSD)

no cached quote yet — the 15-minute cron hasn't populated KV for this symbol

Descriptive statistics, not signals — touching a level is not earning money on it. Every number on this page ships with its sample size (n) and confidence interval. See methodology.

today's range so far

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not yet cached

position in today's range

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0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

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What's happening now

Regime of the day

not yet measured — need today's cached high/low, ATR and width-bounds data

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	20.2%	18.0%	1,202
0.25	2.1%	2.7%	1,202
0.5	0.6%	0.5%	1,202

Measured from the 60-minute mark, next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1440m).

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1440m) up	down level	P(touch within next 1440m) down	n
0.25	—	67.7%	—	67.0%	8,516
0.5	—	40.3%	—	39.6%	8,516
0.75	—	22.2%	—	22.1%	8,516
1	—	11.3%	—	12.1%	8,516
1.5	—	3.0%	—	3.2%	8,516

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Gold spot (XAU/USD)

gold & silver

MAE: 0.91 pp · n = 114,544,524

0-20%

predicted 4.6% · realized 4.5% · n = 73,969,011

20-40%

predicted 29.8% · realized 30.1% · n = 13,646,605

40-60%

predicted 51.7% · realized 52.3% · n = 8,847,076

60-80%

predicted 68.4% · realized 68.3% · n = 10,912,824

80-100%

predicted 84.1% · realized 83.3% · n = 7,169,008

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

not enough historical daily-bar data to reconstruct recent sessions

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →

Get Gold spot (XAU/USD) and every tracked market, every morning, before the open.