Daily Probability Map

SNAPSHOT 05:05 ETLONDON SESSION

Touch probability for every tracked market, updated every 15 minutes. Hover a cell for detail, click a market's row to open its drawer.

Probability map, not a directional call. what this means →

Markets tracked

31 / 32

Levels resolved today

Still live

183

Last update

SNAPSHOT 05:00 ET

Futures Stocks FX Crypto

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked futures market.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET session open — the feed's available session-range window may not start at exactly that instant, see methodology.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
E-mini S&P 500last 7845.50	↑88.8% ↓85.0% ✓89% 85% +3.8pp	↑72.2% ↓67.4% 72% 67% +4.9pp	↑46.2% ↓45.1% 46% 45% +1.1pp	↑27.3% ↓29.0% 27% 29% -1.7pp	↑15.3% ↓18.7% 15% 19% -3.4pp	↑4.3% ↓7.3% 4% 7% -3.1pp
E-mini Nasdaq 100last 31390.25	↑88.8% ↓85.0% ✓89% ✓85% +3.8pp	↑72.2% ↓67.4% 72% 67% +4.9pp	↑46.2% ↓45.1% 46% 45% +1.1pp	↑27.3% ↓29.0% 27% 29% -1.7pp	↑15.3% ↓18.7% 15% 19% -3.4pp	↑4.3% ↓7.3% 4% 7% -3.1pp
E-mini Dowlast 51848.00	↑88.8% ↓85.0% ✓89% 85% +3.8pp	↑72.2% ↓67.4% ✓72% 67% +4.9pp	↑46.2% ↓45.1% 46% 45% +1.1pp	↑27.3% ↓29.0% 27% 29% -1.7pp	↑15.3% ↓18.7% 15% 19% -3.4pp	↑4.3% ↓7.3% 4% 7% -3.1pp
E-mini Russell 2000last 2873.60	↑88.8% ↓85.0% ✓89% 85% +3.8pp	↑72.2% ↓67.4% 72% 67% +4.9pp	↑46.2% ↓45.1% 46% 45% +1.1pp	↑27.3% ↓29.0% 27% 29% -1.7pp	↑15.3% ↓18.7% 15% 19% -3.4pp	↑4.3% ↓7.3% 4% 7% -3.1pp
Goldlast 4179.20	↑88.9% ↓89.3% ✓89% ✓89% -0.4pp	↑73.9% ↓75.1% ✓74% ✓75% -1.3pp	↑51.1% ↓53.3% ✓51% 53% -2.2pp	↑33.6% ↓35.6% 34% 36% -2.1pp	↑21.4% ↓23.7% 21% 24% -2.3pp	↑8.8% ↓9.8% 9% 10% -1.0pp
WTI Crudelast 88.05	↑87.2% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% +0.3pp	↑71.7% ↓72.4% 72% ✓72% -0.7pp	↑48.7% ↓50.8% 49% ✓51% -2.2pp	↑31.6% ↓33.1% 32% 33% -1.5pp	↑18.8% ↓20.2% 19% 20% -1.3pp	↑6.0% ↓7.4% 6% 7% -1.4pp

E-mini S&P 500GoldWTI Crude

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

E-mini S&P 500 · last quote 7845.50

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	88.8%	85.0%	11,377
0.25	72.2%	67.4%	11,377
0.5	46.2%	45.1%	11,377
0.75	27.3%	29.0%	11,377
1	15.3%	18.7%	11,377
1.5	4.3%	7.3%	11,377

E-mini Nasdaq 100 · last quote 31390.25

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	88.8%	85.0%	11,377
0.25	72.2%	67.4%	11,377
0.5	46.2%	45.1%	11,377
0.75	27.3%	29.0%	11,377
1	15.3%	18.7%	11,377
1.5	4.3%	7.3%	11,377

E-mini Dow · last quote 51848.00

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	88.8%	85.0%	11,377
0.25	72.2%	67.4%	11,377
0.5	46.2%	45.1%	11,377
0.75	27.3%	29.0%	11,377
1	15.3%	18.7%	11,377
1.5	4.3%	7.3%	11,377

E-mini Russell 2000 · last quote 2873.60

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	88.8%	85.0%	11,377
0.25	72.2%	67.4%	11,377
0.5	46.2%	45.1%	11,377
0.75	27.3%	29.0%	11,377
1	15.3%	18.7%	11,377
1.5	4.3%	7.3%	11,377

Gold · last quote 4179.20

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	88.9%	89.3%	9,572
0.25	73.9%	75.1%	9,572
0.5	51.1%	53.3%	9,572
0.75	33.6%	35.6%	9,572
1	21.4%	23.7%	9,572
1.5	8.8%	9.8%	9,572

WTI Crude · last quote 88.05

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	87.2%	86.9%	9,287
0.25	71.7%	72.4%	9,287
0.5	48.7%	50.8%	9,287
0.75	31.6%	33.1%	9,287
1	18.8%	20.2%	9,287
1.5	6.0%	7.4%	9,287

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked stocks market.

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET RTH open, matching the feed's session window for exchange-listed equities.

Known gaps: No first-hit grid exists for stocks — brackets.json and width_bounds.json have no stock coverage; not yet measured.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)last 774.83	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% 85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ✓67% 66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% ✓41% 42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% ✓22% 26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% ✓10% 14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)last 756.20	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% 85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ✓67% 66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% ✓41% 42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% ✓22% 26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)last 283.38	↑85.7% ↓84.6% ✓86% ✓85% +1.1pp	↑66.8% ↓66.5% ✓67% ✓66% +0.4pp	↑40.8% ↓42.0% ✓41% ✓42% -1.2pp	↑21.5% ↓25.7% 22% 26% -4.2pp	↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp	↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp
Applelast 332.89	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Microsoftlast 525.18	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% 87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ✓24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Nvidialast 238.90	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% ✓87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ✓24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Amazonlast 251.40	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% 87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% ✓24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Alphabet (GOOGL)last 346.47	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% 87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Meta Platformslast 741.90	↑86.5% ↓86.9% ✓87% 87% -0.4pp	↑68.1% ↓66.8% ✓68% 67% +1.3pp	↑41.8% ↓39.7% ✓42% 40% +2.1pp	↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp	↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp	↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp
Teslalast 378.73	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ✓67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% ✓40% 41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% ✓23% 21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% ✓13% 11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp
AMDlast 631.75	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% 67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% 40% 41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% 23% 21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% 13% 11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp
Netflixlast 67.50	↑86.0% ↓87.8% ✓86% ✓88% -1.8pp	↑66.7% ↓69.6% ✓67% ✓70% -2.9pp	↑39.9% ↓41.1% 40% 41% -1.2pp	↑23.3% ↓20.9% 23% 21% +2.4pp	↑12.9% ↓11.0% 13% 11% +1.9pp	↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)AppleNvidia

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) · last quote 774.83

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) · last quote 756.20

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) · last quote 283.38

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	85.7%	84.6%	1,861
0.25	66.8%	66.5%	1,861
0.5	40.8%	42.0%	1,861
0.75	21.5%	25.7%	1,861
1	9.5%	14.3%	1,861
1.5	1.9%	3.8%	1,861

Apple · last quote 332.89

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Microsoft · last quote 525.18

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Nvidia · last quote 238.90

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Amazon · last quote 251.40

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Alphabet (GOOGL) · last quote 346.47

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Meta Platforms · last quote 741.90

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.5%	86.9%	4,354
0.25	68.1%	66.8%	4,354
0.5	41.8%	39.7%	4,354
0.75	23.7%	21.8%	4,354
1	11.9%	11.1%	4,354
1.5	2.8%	2.9%	4,354

Tesla · last quote 378.73

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

AMD · last quote 631.75

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

Netflix · last quote 67.50

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	86.0%	87.8%	1,152
0.25	66.7%	69.6%	1,152
0.5	39.9%	41.1%	1,152
0.75	23.3%	20.9%	1,152
1	12.9%	11.0%	1,152
1.5	3.9%	2.5%	1,152

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked fx market.

Live touch/not-touched status isn't shown for FX: the data feed has no reliable 17:00 ET forex-day session open to anchor against, so we show probability only rather than guess.

Known gaps: XAU (gold) is not yet measured for FX touch levels.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR	±1 ATR	±1.5 ATR
EUR/USDlast 1.1245	↑82.3% ↓81.2% —82% —81% +1.1pp	↑57.7% ↓56.9% —58% —57% +0.8pp	↑28.7% ↓28.9% —29% —29% -0.2pp	↑13.2% ↓14.0% —13% —14% -0.8pp	↑6.2% ↓6.3% —6% —6% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% —1% —2% -0.1pp
GBP/USDlast 1.3241	↑82.3% ↓81.2% —82% —81% +1.1pp	↑57.7% ↓56.9% —58% —57% +0.8pp	↑28.7% ↓28.9% —29% —29% -0.2pp	↑13.2% ↓14.0% —13% —14% -0.8pp	↑6.2% ↓6.3% —6% —6% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% —1% —2% -0.1pp
USD/JPYlast 158.21	↑82.3% ↓81.2% —82% —81% +1.1pp	↑57.7% ↓56.9% —58% —57% +0.8pp	↑28.7% ↓28.9% —29% —29% -0.2pp	↑13.2% ↓14.0% —13% —14% -0.8pp	↑6.2% ↓6.3% —6% —6% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% —1% —2% -0.1pp
AUD/USDlast 0.6977	↑82.3% ↓81.2% —82% —81% +1.1pp	↑57.7% ↓56.9% —58% —57% +0.8pp	↑28.7% ↓28.9% —29% —29% -0.2pp	↑13.2% ↓14.0% —13% —14% -0.8pp	↑6.2% ↓6.3% —6% —6% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% —1% —2% -0.1pp
USD/CADlast 1.4269	↑82.3% ↓81.2% —82% —81% +1.1pp	↑57.7% ↓56.9% —58% —57% +0.8pp	↑28.7% ↓28.9% —29% —29% -0.2pp	↑13.2% ↓14.0% —13% —14% -0.8pp	↑6.2% ↓6.3% —6% —6% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% —1% —2% -0.1pp
USD/CHFlast 0.8317	↑82.3% ↓81.2% —82% —81% +1.1pp	↑57.7% ↓56.9% —58% —57% +0.8pp	↑28.7% ↓28.9% —29% —29% -0.2pp	↑13.2% ↓14.0% —13% —14% -0.8pp	↑6.2% ↓6.3% —6% —6% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% —1% —2% -0.1pp
NZD/USDlast 0.5605	↑82.3% ↓81.2% —82% —81% +1.1pp	↑57.7% ↓56.9% —58% —57% +0.8pp	↑28.7% ↓28.9% —29% —29% -0.2pp	↑13.2% ↓14.0% —13% —14% -0.8pp	↑6.2% ↓6.3% —6% —6% -0.1pp	↑1.4% ↓1.5% —1% —2% -0.1pp
Gold spot (XAU/USD)	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —	— — — — —

EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPY

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

EUR/USD · last quote 1.1245

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.3%	81.2%	8,520
0.25	57.7%	56.9%	8,520
0.5	28.7%	28.9%	8,520
0.75	13.2%	14.0%	8,520
1	6.2%	6.3%	8,520
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	8,520

GBP/USD · last quote 1.3241

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.3%	81.2%	8,520
0.25	57.7%	56.9%	8,520
0.5	28.7%	28.9%	8,520
0.75	13.2%	14.0%	8,520
1	6.2%	6.3%	8,520
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	8,520

USD/JPY · last quote 158.21

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.3%	81.2%	8,520
0.25	57.7%	56.9%	8,520
0.5	28.7%	28.9%	8,520
0.75	13.2%	14.0%	8,520
1	6.2%	6.3%	8,520
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	8,520

AUD/USD · last quote 0.6977

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.3%	81.2%	8,520
0.25	57.7%	56.9%	8,520
0.5	28.7%	28.9%	8,520
0.75	13.2%	14.0%	8,520
1	6.2%	6.3%	8,520
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	8,520

USD/CAD · last quote 1.4269

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.3%	81.2%	8,520
0.25	57.7%	56.9%	8,520
0.5	28.7%	28.9%	8,520
0.75	13.2%	14.0%	8,520
1	6.2%	6.3%	8,520
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	8,520

USD/CHF · last quote 0.8317

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.3%	81.2%	8,520
0.25	57.7%	56.9%	8,520
0.5	28.7%	28.9%	8,520
0.75	13.2%	14.0%	8,520
1	6.2%	6.3%	8,520
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	8,520

NZD/USD · last quote 0.5605

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	82.3%	81.2%	8,520
0.25	57.7%	56.9%	8,520
0.5	28.7%	28.9%	8,520
0.75	13.2%	14.0%	8,520
1	6.2%	6.3%	8,520
1.5	1.4%	1.5%	8,520

Gold spot (XAU/USD)

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.25	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
0.75	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1	not yet measured	not yet measured	—
1.5	not yet measured	not yet measured	—

P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked crypto market.

Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.

Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at 00:00 UTC (today's day type: weekday) — the feed's session-range window may not start exactly at that instant, see methodology. Weekends trade a measurably different, thinner regime, so weekday and weekend use separate probability curves.

Known gaps: day_type=vse (pooled weekday+weekend) is not served — weekday and weekend are measurably different regimes, so the site must always pick the row matching today's UTC day type. Cells flagged rare in the source parquet (p<0.01 or p>0.99; 21.7% of all rows) are dropped entirely, not served — they render as 'not yet measured' the same as any other missing combo.

Market	±0.1 ATR	±0.25 ATR	±0.5 ATR	±0.75 ATR
Bitcoinlast 86013.89	↑83.8% ↓82.1% ✓84% ✓82% +1.7pp	↑58.2% ↓59.9% 58% ✓60% -1.7pp	↑30.4% ↓31.4% 30% 31% -1.0pp	↑16.0% ↓17.1% 16% 17% -1.1pp
Ethereumlast 2716.40	↑83.8% ↓82.1% ✓84% ✓82% +1.7pp	↑58.2% ↓59.9% 58% ✓60% -1.7pp	↑30.4% ↓31.4% 30% 31% -1.0pp	↑16.0% ↓17.1% 16% 17% -1.1pp
Solanalast 120.51	↑81.0% ↓85.5% ✓81% ✓85% -4.5pp	↑57.5% ↓62.0% 57% ✓62% -4.5pp	↑29.1% ↓31.1% 29% 31% -2.0pp	↑16.2% ↓16.3% 16% 16% -0.1pp
Avalanchelast 11.32	↑81.0% ↓85.5% ✓81% 85% -4.5pp	↑57.5% ↓62.0% ✓57% 62% -4.5pp	↑29.1% ↓31.1% 29% 31% -2.0pp	↑16.2% ↓16.3% 16% 16% -0.1pp
Chainlinklast 13.98	↑81.0% ↓85.5% ✓81% ✓85% -4.5pp	↑57.5% ↓62.0% 57% 62% -4.5pp	↑29.1% ↓31.1% 29% 31% -2.0pp	↑16.2% ↓16.3% 16% 16% -0.1pp
Dogecoinlast 0.0949	↑81.0% ↓85.5% 81% ✓85% -4.5pp	↑57.5% ↓62.0% 57% 62% -4.5pp	↑29.1% ↓31.1% 29% 31% -2.0pp	↑16.2% ↓16.3% 16% 16% -0.1pp

BitcoinEthereumSolana

Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.

Bitcoin · last quote 86013.89

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.8%	82.1%	1,694
0.25	58.2%	59.9%	1,694
0.5	30.4%	31.4%	1,694
0.75	16.0%	17.1%	1,694

Ethereum · last quote 2716.40

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	83.8%	82.1%	1,694
0.25	58.2%	59.9%	1,694
0.5	30.4%	31.4%	1,694
0.75	16.0%	17.1%	1,694

Solana · last quote 120.51

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.0%	85.5%	2,620
0.25	57.5%	62.0%	2,620
0.5	29.1%	31.1%	2,620
0.75	16.2%	16.3%	2,620

Avalanche · last quote 11.32

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.0%	85.5%	2,620
0.25	57.5%	62.0%	2,620
0.5	29.1%	31.1%	2,620
0.75	16.2%	16.3%	2,620

Chainlink · last quote 13.98

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.0%	85.5%	2,620
0.25	57.5%	62.0%	2,620
0.5	29.1%	31.1%	2,620
0.75	16.2%	16.3%	2,620

Dogecoin · last quote 0.0949

distance (ATR)	P(touch up)	P(touch down)	n
0.1	81.0%	85.5%	2,620
0.25	57.5%	62.0%	2,620
0.5	29.1%	31.1%	2,620
0.75	16.2%	16.3%	2,620

How to read this map: each cell is P(price touches ±d ATR from the session anchor before that horizon ends), split into an up half and a down half. Live status compares that level against today's actual high/low from the data feed — a checkmark means it already happened today, a pulsing dot means the session is still running and it hasn't happened yet, an open circle means the session closed without it happening. Asymmetry is P(up) minus P(down) in percentage points — a directional imbalance in how often each side gets touched, not a trade signal.

Index futures, stock sector groups (ETFs / mega-caps / high-beta) and crypto groups (BTC & ETH / alt L1s) share one probability surface each — identical numbers within the same group are by construction, not a bug.