foxalgoDaily Probability Map
SNAPSHOT 02:45 ETLONDON SESSIONTouch probability for every tracked market, updated every 15 minutes. Hover a cell for detail, click a market's row to open its drawer.
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked futures market.
Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET session open — the feed's available session-range window may not start at exactly that instant, see methodology.
| Market | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR | ±0.75 ATR | ±1 ATR | ±1.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini S&P 500last 7691.25 | ↑89.7% ↓87.0% 90% 87% +2.7pp | ↑73.8% ↓70.3% 74% 70% +3.5pp | ↑48.8% ↓47.8% 49% 48% +1.0pp | ↑29.9% ↓31.6% 30% 32% -1.7pp | ↑17.7% ↓20.6% 18% 21% -2.9pp | ↑5.7% ↓8.4% 6% 8% -2.7pp |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100last 29387.75 | ↑89.7% ↓87.0% 90% 87% +2.7pp | ↑73.8% ↓70.3% 74% 70% +3.5pp | ↑48.8% ↓47.8% 49% 48% +1.0pp | ↑29.9% ↓31.6% 30% 32% -1.7pp | ↑17.7% ↓20.6% 18% 21% -2.9pp | ↑5.7% ↓8.4% 6% 8% -2.7pp |
| E-mini Dowlast 53353.00 | ↑89.7% ↓87.0% 90% 87% +2.7pp | ↑73.8% ↓70.3% 74% 70% +3.5pp | ↑48.8% ↓47.8% 49% 48% +1.0pp | ↑29.9% ↓31.6% 30% 32% -1.7pp | ↑17.7% ↓20.6% 18% 21% -2.9pp | ↑5.7% ↓8.4% 6% 8% -2.7pp |
| E-mini Russell 2000last 3022.10 | ↑89.7% ↓87.0% 90% 87% +2.7pp | ↑73.8% ↓70.3% 74% 70% +3.5pp | ↑48.8% ↓47.8% 49% 48% +1.0pp | ↑29.9% ↓31.6% 30% 32% -1.7pp | ↑17.7% ↓20.6% 18% 21% -2.9pp | ↑5.7% ↓8.4% 6% 8% -2.7pp |
| Goldlast 4680.60 | ↑88.2% ↓90.2% 88% 90% -2.0pp | ↑73.6% ↓76.9% 74% 77% -3.3pp | ↑52.1% ↓57.2% 52% 57% -5.0pp | ↑36.1% ↓40.4% 36% 40% -4.3pp | ↑23.8% ↓27.4% 24% 27% -3.6pp | ↑10.0% ↓11.9% 10% 12% -1.9pp |
| WTI Crudelast 87.06 | ↑87.9% ↓89.4% 88% 89% -1.5pp | ↑72.5% ↓74.7% 73% 75% -2.2pp | ↑50.2% ↓52.7% 50% 53% -2.5pp | ↑33.4% ↓35.7% 33% 36% -2.3pp | ↑20.8% ↓22.4% 21% 22% -1.6pp | ↑7.1% ↓8.4% 7% 8% -1.3pp |
Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.
E-mini S&P 500
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 89.7% | 87.0% | 11,490 |
| 0.25 | 73.8% | 70.3% | 11,490 |
| 0.5 | 48.8% | 47.8% | 11,490 |
| 0.75 | 29.9% | 31.6% | 11,490 |
| 1 | 17.7% | 20.6% | 11,490 |
| 1.5 | 5.7% | 8.4% | 11,490 |
E-mini Nasdaq 100
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 89.7% | 87.0% | 11,490 |
| 0.25 | 73.8% | 70.3% | 11,490 |
| 0.5 | 48.8% | 47.8% | 11,490 |
| 0.75 | 29.9% | 31.6% | 11,490 |
| 1 | 17.7% | 20.6% | 11,490 |
| 1.5 | 5.7% | 8.4% | 11,490 |
E-mini Dow
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 89.7% | 87.0% | 11,490 |
| 0.25 | 73.8% | 70.3% | 11,490 |
| 0.5 | 48.8% | 47.8% | 11,490 |
| 0.75 | 29.9% | 31.6% | 11,490 |
| 1 | 17.7% | 20.6% | 11,490 |
| 1.5 | 5.7% | 8.4% | 11,490 |
E-mini Russell 2000
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 89.7% | 87.0% | 11,490 |
| 0.25 | 73.8% | 70.3% | 11,490 |
| 0.5 | 48.8% | 47.8% | 11,490 |
| 0.75 | 29.9% | 31.6% | 11,490 |
| 1 | 17.7% | 20.6% | 11,490 |
| 1.5 | 5.7% | 8.4% | 11,490 |
Gold
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 88.2% | 90.2% | 9,580 |
| 0.25 | 73.6% | 76.9% | 9,580 |
| 0.5 | 52.1% | 57.2% | 9,580 |
| 0.75 | 36.1% | 40.4% | 9,580 |
| 1 | 23.8% | 27.4% | 9,580 |
| 1.5 | 10.0% | 11.9% | 9,580 |
WTI Crude
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 87.9% | 89.4% | 9,084 |
| 0.25 | 72.5% | 74.7% | 9,084 |
| 0.5 | 50.2% | 52.7% | 9,084 |
| 0.75 | 33.4% | 35.7% | 9,084 |
| 1 | 20.8% | 22.4% | 9,084 |
| 1.5 | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9,084 |
P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked stocks market.
Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.
Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at the 09:30 ET RTH open, matching the feed's session window for exchange-listed equities.
Known gaps: No first-hit grid exists for stocks — brackets.json and width_bounds.json have no stock coverage; not yet measured.
| Market | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR | ±0.75 ATR | ±1 ATR | ±1.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY)last 765.72 | ↑85.7% ↓84.6% 86% 85% +1.1pp | ↑66.8% ↓66.5% 67% 66% +0.4pp | ↑40.8% ↓42.0% 41% 42% -1.2pp | ↑21.5% ↓25.7% 22% 26% -4.2pp | ↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp | ↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp |
| Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)last 713.44 | ↑85.7% ↓84.6% 86% 85% +1.1pp | ↑66.8% ↓66.5% 67% 66% +0.4pp | ↑40.8% ↓42.0% 41% 42% -1.2pp | ↑21.5% ↓25.7% 22% 26% -4.2pp | ↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp | ↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp |
| Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)last 299.96 | ↑85.7% ↓84.6% 86% 85% +1.1pp | ↑66.8% ↓66.5% 67% 66% +0.4pp | ↑40.8% ↓42.0% 41% 42% -1.2pp | ↑21.5% ↓25.7% 22% 26% -4.2pp | ↑9.5% ↓14.3% 10% 14% -4.8pp | ↑1.9% ↓3.8% 2% 4% -1.8pp |
| Applelast 309.35 | ↑86.5% ↓86.9% 87% 87% -0.4pp | ↑68.1% ↓66.8% 68% 67% +1.3pp | ↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% 40% +2.1pp | ↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp | ↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp | ↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp |
| Microsoftlast 483.24 | ↑86.5% ↓86.9% 87% 87% -0.4pp | ↑68.1% ↓66.8% 68% 67% +1.3pp | ↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% 40% +2.1pp | ↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp | ↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp | ↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp |
| Nvidialast 214.72 | ↑86.5% ↓86.9% 87% 87% -0.4pp | ↑68.1% ↓66.8% 68% 67% +1.3pp | ↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% 40% +2.1pp | ↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp | ↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp | ↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp |
| Amazonlast 258.63 | ↑86.5% ↓86.9% 87% 87% -0.4pp | ↑68.1% ↓66.8% 68% 67% +1.3pp | ↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% 40% +2.1pp | ↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp | ↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp | ↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp |
| Alphabet (GOOGL)last 344.82 | ↑86.5% ↓86.9% 87% 87% -0.4pp | ↑68.1% ↓66.8% 68% 67% +1.3pp | ↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% 40% +2.1pp | ↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp | ↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp | ↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp |
| Meta Platformslast 549.90 | ↑86.5% ↓86.9% 87% 87% -0.4pp | ↑68.1% ↓66.8% 68% 67% +1.3pp | ↑41.8% ↓39.7% 42% 40% +2.1pp | ↑23.7% ↓21.8% 24% 22% +1.9pp | ↑11.9% ↓11.1% 12% 11% +0.7pp | ↑2.8% ↓2.9% 3% 3% -0.1pp |
| Teslalast 362.86 | ↑86.0% ↓87.8% 86% 88% -1.8pp | ↑66.7% ↓69.6% 67% 70% -2.9pp | ↑39.9% ↓41.1% 40% 41% -1.2pp | ↑23.3% ↓20.9% 23% 21% +2.4pp | ↑12.9% ↓11.0% 13% 11% +1.9pp | ↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp |
| AMDlast 473.25 | ↑86.0% ↓87.8% 86% 88% -1.8pp | ↑66.7% ↓69.6% 67% 70% -2.9pp | ↑39.9% ↓41.1% 40% 41% -1.2pp | ↑23.3% ↓20.9% 23% 21% +2.4pp | ↑12.9% ↓11.0% 13% 11% +1.9pp | ↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp |
| Netflixlast 79.59 | ↑86.0% ↓87.8% 86% 88% -1.8pp | ↑66.7% ↓69.6% 67% 70% -2.9pp | ↑39.9% ↓41.1% 40% 41% -1.2pp | ↑23.3% ↓20.9% 23% 21% +2.4pp | ↑12.9% ↓11.0% 13% 11% +1.9pp | ↑3.9% ↓2.5% 4% 2% +1.5pp |
Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 85.7% | 84.6% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 66.8% | 66.5% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 40.8% | 42.0% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 21.5% | 25.7% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 9.5% | 14.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 1,861 |
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 85.7% | 84.6% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 66.8% | 66.5% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 40.8% | 42.0% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 21.5% | 25.7% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 9.5% | 14.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 1,861 |
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 85.7% | 84.6% | 1,861 |
| 0.25 | 66.8% | 66.5% | 1,861 |
| 0.5 | 40.8% | 42.0% | 1,861 |
| 0.75 | 21.5% | 25.7% | 1,861 |
| 1 | 9.5% | 14.3% | 1,861 |
| 1.5 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 1,861 |
Apple
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.5% | 86.9% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 68.1% | 66.8% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 41.8% | 39.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 23.7% | 21.8% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4,354 |
Microsoft
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.5% | 86.9% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 68.1% | 66.8% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 41.8% | 39.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 23.7% | 21.8% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4,354 |
Nvidia
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.5% | 86.9% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 68.1% | 66.8% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 41.8% | 39.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 23.7% | 21.8% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4,354 |
Amazon
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.5% | 86.9% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 68.1% | 66.8% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 41.8% | 39.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 23.7% | 21.8% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4,354 |
Alphabet (GOOGL)
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.5% | 86.9% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 68.1% | 66.8% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 41.8% | 39.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 23.7% | 21.8% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4,354 |
Meta Platforms
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.5% | 86.9% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 68.1% | 66.8% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 41.8% | 39.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 23.7% | 21.8% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4,354 |
Tesla
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.0% | 87.8% | 1,152 |
| 0.25 | 66.7% | 69.6% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 39.9% | 41.1% | 1,152 |
| 0.75 | 23.3% | 20.9% | 1,152 |
| 1 | 12.9% | 11.0% | 1,152 |
| 1.5 | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1,152 |
AMD
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.0% | 87.8% | 1,152 |
| 0.25 | 66.7% | 69.6% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 39.9% | 41.1% | 1,152 |
| 0.75 | 23.3% | 20.9% | 1,152 |
| 1 | 12.9% | 11.0% | 1,152 |
| 1.5 | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1,152 |
Netflix
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 86.0% | 87.8% | 1,152 |
| 0.25 | 66.7% | 69.6% | 1,152 |
| 0.5 | 39.9% | 41.1% | 1,152 |
| 0.75 | 23.3% | 20.9% | 1,152 |
| 1 | 12.9% | 11.0% | 1,152 |
| 1.5 | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1,152 |
P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked fx market.
Live touch/not-touched status isn't shown for FX: the data feed has no reliable 17:00 ET forex-day session open to anchor against, so we show probability only rather than guess.
Known gaps: XAU is not present in touch_surface_fx_v1 (scopes available: fx_majors, fx_cross, all_fx, cfd_ostatni) — not yet measured.
| Market | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR | ±0.75 ATR | ±1 ATR | ±1.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USDlast 1.1678 | ↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp | ↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp | ↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp | ↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp | ↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp | ↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp |
| GBP/USDlast 1.3648 | ↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp | ↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp | ↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp | ↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp | ↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp | ↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp |
| USD/JPYlast 158.94 | ↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp | ↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp | ↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp | ↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp | ↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp | ↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp |
| AUD/USDlast 0.7175 | ↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp | ↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp | ↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp | ↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp | ↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp | ↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp |
| USD/CADlast 1.3764 | ↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp | ↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp | ↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp | ↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp | ↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp | ↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp |
| USD/CHFlast 0.8008 | ↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp | ↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp | ↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp | ↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp | ↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp | ↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp |
| NZD/USDlast 0.5978 | ↑83.1% ↓82.7% —83% —83% +0.4pp | ↑61.9% ↓61.2% —62% —61% +0.7pp | ↑34.0% ↓34.2% —34% —34% -0.2pp | ↑16.8% ↓17.3% —17% —17% -0.5pp | ↑8.2% ↓8.2% —8% —8% -0.1pp | ↑2.0% ↓2.1% —2% —2% -0.1pp |
| Gold spot (XAU/USD) | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — | — — — — — |
Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.
EUR/USD
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.1% | 82.7% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 61.9% | 61.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 8,521 |
GBP/USD
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.1% | 82.7% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 61.9% | 61.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 8,521 |
USD/JPY
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.1% | 82.7% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 61.9% | 61.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 8,521 |
AUD/USD
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.1% | 82.7% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 61.9% | 61.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 8,521 |
USD/CAD
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.1% | 82.7% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 61.9% | 61.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 8,521 |
USD/CHF
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.1% | 82.7% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 61.9% | 61.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 8,521 |
NZD/USD
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 83.1% | 82.7% | 8,521 |
| 0.25 | 61.9% | 61.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.5 | 34.0% | 34.2% | 8,521 |
| 0.75 | 16.8% | 17.3% | 8,521 |
| 1 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8,521 |
| 1.5 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 8,521 |
Gold spot (XAU/USD)
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
| 0.25 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
| 0.5 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
| 0.75 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
| 1 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
| 1.5 | not yet measured | not yet measured | — |
P(touch) at ±0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 ATR from the session anchor, for each tracked crypto market.
Weekends are quieter — the odds change, so we show separate weekend numbers.
Live status measured against today's session range from the data feed; probabilities are anchored at 00:00 UTC (today's day type: weekend) — the feed's session-range window may not start exactly at that instant, see methodology. Weekends trade a measurably different, thinner regime, so weekday and weekend use separate probability curves.
Known gaps: day_type=vse (pooled weekday+weekend) is not served — weekday and weekend are measurably different regimes, so the site must always pick the row matching today's UTC day type. Cells flagged rare in the source parquet (p<0.01 or p>0.99; 21.7% of all rows) are dropped entirely, not served — they render as 'not yet measured' the same as any other missing combo.
| Market | ±0.1 ATR | ±0.25 ATR | ±0.5 ATR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoinlast 77220.33 | ↑76.5% ↓80.3% 77% 80% -3.8pp | ↑49.9% ↓55.7% 50% 56% -5.9pp | ↑21.7% ↓24.8% 22% 25% -3.1pp |
| Ethereumlast 2429.46 | ↑76.5% ↓80.3% 77% 80% -3.8pp | ↑49.9% ↓55.7% 50% 56% -5.9pp | ↑21.7% ↓24.8% 22% 25% -3.1pp |
| Solanalast 93.80 | ↑80.2% ↓79.7% 80% 80% +0.5pp | ↑53.4% ↓54.6% 53% 55% -1.1pp | ↑25.2% ↓25.5% 25% 26% -0.3pp |
| Avalanchelast 7.6340 | ↑80.2% ↓79.7% 80% 80% +0.5pp | ↑53.4% ↓54.6% 53% 55% -1.1pp | ↑25.2% ↓25.5% 25% 26% -0.3pp |
| Chainlinklast 11.81 | ↑80.2% ↓79.7% 80% 80% +0.5pp | ↑53.4% ↓54.6% 53% 55% -1.1pp | ↑25.2% ↓25.5% 25% 26% -0.3pp |
| Dogecoinlast 0.0924 | ↑80.2% ↓79.7% 80% 80% +0.5pp | ↑53.4% ↓54.6% 53% 55% -1.1pp | ↑25.2% ↓25.5% 25% 26% -0.3pp |
Up direction shown; each market's drawer has the full up/down curve.
Bitcoin
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 76.5% | 80.3% | 682 |
| 0.25 | 49.9% | 55.7% | 682 |
| 0.5 | 21.7% | 24.8% | 682 |
Ethereum
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 76.5% | 80.3% | 682 |
| 0.25 | 49.9% | 55.7% | 682 |
| 0.5 | 21.7% | 24.8% | 682 |
Solana
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 80.2% | 79.7% | 1,056 |
| 0.25 | 53.4% | 54.6% | 1,056 |
| 0.5 | 25.2% | 25.5% | 1,056 |
Avalanche
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 80.2% | 79.7% | 1,056 |
| 0.25 | 53.4% | 54.6% | 1,056 |
| 0.5 | 25.2% | 25.5% | 1,056 |
Chainlink
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 80.2% | 79.7% | 1,056 |
| 0.25 | 53.4% | 54.6% | 1,056 |
| 0.5 | 25.2% | 25.5% | 1,056 |
Dogecoin
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up) | P(touch down) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 80.2% | 79.7% | 1,056 |
| 0.25 | 53.4% | 54.6% | 1,056 |
| 0.5 | 25.2% | 25.5% | 1,056 |
How to read this map: each cell is P(price touches ±d ATR from the session anchor before that horizon ends), split into an up half and a down half. Live status compares that level against today's actual high/low from the data feed — a checkmark means it already happened today, a pulsing dot means the session is still running and it hasn't happened yet, an open circle means the session closed without it happening. Asymmetry is P(up) minus P(down) in percentage points — a directional imbalance in how often each side gets touched, not a trade signal.
Index futures, stock sector groups (ETFs / mega-caps / high-beta) and crypto groups (BTC & ETH / alt L1s) share one probability surface each — identical numbers within the same group are by construction, not a bug.
E-mini S&P 500
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.974 → typical (n = 11,559)
E-mini Nasdaq 100
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.953 → typical (n = 11,559)
E-mini Dow
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 1.510 → wide (n = 11,559)
E-mini Russell 2000
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.859 → typical (n = 11,559)
Gold
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 1.919 → wide (n = 9,581)
WTI Crude
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.896 → typical (n = 9,316)
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Day-width regime: not yet measured for SPY — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
Day-width regime: not yet measured for QQQ — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
Day-width regime: not yet measured for IWM — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Apple
Day-width regime: not yet measured for AAPL — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Microsoft
Day-width regime: not yet measured for MSFT — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Nvidia
Day-width regime: not yet measured for NVDA — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Amazon
Day-width regime: not yet measured for AMZN — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Day-width regime: not yet measured for GOOGL — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Meta Platforms
Day-width regime: not yet measured for META — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Tesla
Day-width regime: not yet measured for TSLA — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
AMD
Day-width regime: not yet measured for AMD — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Netflix
Day-width regime: not yet measured for NFLX — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
EUR/USD
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.779 → narrow (n = 13,287)
GBP/USD
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.882 → narrow (n = 13,287)
USD/JPY
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.819 → narrow (n = 13,287)
AUD/USD
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 1.382 → typical (n = 13,287)
USD/CAD
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.789 → narrow (n = 13,287)
USD/CHF
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.615 → narrow (n = 13,287)
NZD/USD
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.868 → narrow (n = 13,287)
Gold spot (XAU/USD)
Today's range isn't available from the data feed yet.
Day-width regime: not enough data yet to place today.
Bitcoin
Day-width regime: not yet measured for BTCUSDT — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Ethereum
Day-width regime: not yet measured for ETHUSDT — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Solana
Day-width regime: not yet measured for SOLUSDT — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Avalanche
Day-width regime: not yet measured for AVAXUSDT — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Chainlink
Day-width regime: not yet measured for LINKUSDT — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.
Dogecoin
Day-width regime: not yet measured for DOGEUSDT — no width_bounds.json coverage for this asset class.