GBP/USD (GBPUSD)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 22:59 ET

last quote 1.3256 · as of 23:06 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-10-01T02:59:58.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / GBPUSD CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 1.3256

GBPUSD · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	1.33	64.2%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	1.32	62.9%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	1.33	36.7%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	1.32	35.9%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	1.33	19.1%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	1.32	19.0%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	1.33	9.3%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	1.32	9.8%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	1.34	2.4%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	1.31	2.5%	not touched yet

today's range so far

0.0018

high 1.3273 / low 1.3255 · n=17 bars

position in today's range

8.0%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

-0.0008

open 1.3264

What's happening now

Regime of the day

Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.249 → narrow (n = 13,231)

narrow < 0.325, typical < 0.529, else wide — based on a partial-session window (17 bars). See methodology.

FOXALGO / GBPUSD INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	28.9%	26.9%	8,521
0.25	4.9%	4.6%	8,521
0.5	0.8%	0.7%	8,521

Measured from the 240-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 1080m).

FOXALGO / GBPUSD INSTRUMENT 01

GBPUSD · P(touch within next 1080m)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch within next 1080m) up	down level	P(touch within next 1080m) down	n
0.25	1.3275	64.2%	1.3237	62.9%	8,522
0.5	1.3293	36.7%	1.3219	35.9%	8,522
0.75	1.3312	19.1%	1.3200	19.0%	8,522
1	1.3330	9.3%	1.3182	9.8%	8,522
1.5	1.3367	2.4%	1.3145	2.5%	8,522

Brackets

Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for GBP/USD

FX majors

MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176

0-20%

predicted 4.5% · realized 4.6% · n = 495,510,617

20-40%

predicted 29.9% · realized 30.6% · n = 94,219,533

40-60%

predicted 51.1% · realized 52.1% · n = 65,569,874

60-80%

predicted 69.4% · realized 70.2% · n = 78,607,750

80-100%

predicted 83.5% · realized 83.9% · n = 42,889,402

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-09-16	1.3411	36.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-17	1.3388	36.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-20	1.3421	36.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-21	1.3400	36.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-22	1.3374	36.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-23	1.3272	36.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-24	1.3245	36.7%	touched ✓
2026-09-27	1.3264	36.7%	touched ✓
2026-09-28	1.3291	36.7%	not touched ✗
2026-09-29	1.3267	36.7%	touched ✓

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →